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    KS CracoviaKS CracoviaCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Motor LublinMotor LublinPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · KS Cracovia (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Motor Lublin @ 3.20 (+17 %)

    KS Cracovia vs Motor Lublin · Ekstraklasa

    1 · KS Cracovia 37%X 26%37% Motor Lublin · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for KS Cracovia vs Motor Lublin (Ekstraklasa, Friday, 30 October 2026): KS Cracovia win 37%, draw 26%, Motor Lublin win 37%. Expected goals (xG): KS Cracovia 1.50, Motor Lublin 1.46. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: KS Cracovia or draw 63%, Motor Lublin or draw 63%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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    Analysis: KS Cracovia – Motor Lublin

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    37% apiece, yet the model’s lean is KS Cracovia. The hosts’ counter-attacks and crosses meet Motor Lublin’s possession-heavy high press in a near pick’em, with 1.50 expected goals against 1.46. The most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, though the numbers lean Over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 60%.

    Motor have the stronger season process: 13 points to 12, 18.6 xPoints to 16.1, and 1.9 xG per match to 1.5. Cracovia’s 1.5 xGA matches the visitors’, with the defensive edge assigned to the hosts. Their head-to-head since 2023 is 2W, 1D, 1L across four matches; it is a small sample and weighs less than form and expected goals.

    The analysis points to a tight 1-1, with a modest Over 2.5 lean, but the price says away. Motor Lublin at 3.25 with Betsafe or Nordicbet is assessed as EV+ at a 37% model rating and a 19% edge; dull value beats forced certainty.

    KS CracoviaKS Cracovia
    Form LLWDL
    League ranking xG #10xGA #8xT #8xP/match #9Points #13
    Key players
    • Mohamed BerteFxG 0.18 · xT -0.04
    • Amir Al AmmariCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.14
    • Ajdin HasicRWxG 0.42 · xT 0.29
    Motor LublinMotor Lublin
    Form LDWWD
    League ranking xG #1xGA #9xT #3xP/match #6Points #12
    Key players
    • Bartosz BereszyńskiCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.17
    • Tin PlavotićCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.04
    • Yacine BourhaneCDMxG 0.15 · xT 0.06

    Match prediction: KS Cracovia – Motor Lublin

    Predicted score matrix

    Motor Lublin →
    KS Cracovia →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.5%
    0–17.2%
    0–25.5%
    0–32.7%
    0–4+1.4%
    1
    1–07.4%
    1–111.7%
    1–28.3%
    1–34.0%
    1–4+2.0%
    2
    2–05.8%
    2–18.5%
    2–26.2%
    2–33.0%
    2–4+1.5%
    3
    3–02.9%
    3–14.2%
    3–23.1%
    3–31.5%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–01.5%
    4+–12.2%
    4+–21.6%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,50–1,46
    Both teams to score
    60%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,543%
    @2.12
    Over 2,557%
    @1.65

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance KS Cracovia or draw (1X)63%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.98

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance KS Cracovia or draw (1X)63%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Mateusz Andrzej Klich to score21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score60%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Karol Czubak to score29%
    • Marek Kristián Bartoš to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Motor Lublin37% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
    • 2 · Motor Lublin37% probability@3.20NordicbetEV+17%reference odds
    • 2 · Motor Lublin37% probability@3.15LeoVegasEV+15%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · KS CracoviaX2 · Motor Lublin
    Betsafe2.053.45
    EV+ 17%
    3.20
    LeoVegas2.053.55
    EV+ 15%
    3.15
    Nordicbet2.053.45
    EV+ 17%
    3.20

    Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Motor Lublin win since 23 October — the odds have shortened from 3.45 to 3.15 (−9%).

    1+7 %
    49 %44 %

    1.92 → 2.05

    X0 %
    28 %23 %

    3.55 → 3.55

    2-9 %
    30 %25 %

    3.45 → 3.15

    Over 2,5-4 %
    58 %53 %

    1.70 → 1.64

    LeoVegas · 9 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    KS Cracovia 2Draw 1Motor Lublin 1
    Goals: 11–7 (⌀ 4,5)

    Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    KS Cracovia
    Motor Lublin
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    KS Cracovia (14–19)
    Motor Lublin (17–21)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    KS Cracovia
    Brahim Traoré: 238 passningar, xT 0.36TraoréAmir Al Ammari: 201 passningar, xT 0.64AmmariGustav Henriksson: 171 passningar, xT 0.13HenrikssonOtar Kakabadze: 157 passningar, xT 0.45KakabadzeVincent Burlet: 138 passningar, xT 0.31BurletMateusz Andrzej Klich: 132 passningar, xT 0.62KlichAjdin Hasic: 128 passningar, xT 0.6HasicSebastian Madejski: 124 passningar, xT 0.13MadejskiKarol Knap: 97 passningar, xT 0.04KnapMartin Minchev: 52 passningar, xT 0.96MinchevMauro Perkovic: 43 passningar, xT 0.22Perkovic
    Motor Lublin
    Yacine Bourhane: 217 passningar, xT 0.34BourhaneFilip Luberecki: 194 passningar, xT 0.44LubereckiKamil Lukoszek: 188 passningar, xT 1.69LukoszekBartosz Bereszyński: 182 passningar, xT 0.39BereszyńskiTin Plavotić: 170 passningar, xT 0.26PlavotićMarek Bartos: 163 passningar, xT 0.31BartosChristopher Simon: 140 passningar, xT 0.37SimonMarcos Paulo Mesquita Lopes: 124 passningar, xT 0.8LopesGasper Tratnik: 124 passningar, xT 0.12TratnikMbaye Ndiaye: 90 passningar, xT 0.47NdiayeMakan Aïko: 63 passningar, xT 0.02Aïko
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    KS Cracovia
    Brahim Traoré: 238 passningar, xT 0.36TraoréAmir Al Ammari: 201 passningar, xT 0.64AmmariGustav Henriksson: 171 passningar, xT 0.13HenrikssonOtar Kakabadze: 157 passningar, xT 0.45KakabadzeVincent Burlet: 138 passningar, xT 0.31BurletMateusz Andrzej Klich: 132 passningar, xT 0.62KlichAjdin Hasic: 128 passningar, xT 0.6HasicSebastian Madejski: 124 passningar, xT 0.13MadejskiKarol Knap: 97 passningar, xT 0.04KnapMartin Minchev: 52 passningar, xT 0.96MinchevMauro Perkovic: 43 passningar, xT 0.22Perkovic
    Motor Lublin
    Yacine Bourhane: 217 passningar, xT 0.34BourhaneFilip Luberecki: 194 passningar, xT 0.44LubereckiKamil Lukoszek: 188 passningar, xT 1.69LukoszekBartosz Bereszyński: 182 passningar, xT 0.39BereszyńskiTin Plavotić: 170 passningar, xT 0.26PlavotićMarek Bartos: 163 passningar, xT 0.31BartosChristopher Simon: 140 passningar, xT 0.37SimonMarcos Paulo Mesquita Lopes: 124 passningar, xT 0.8LopesGasper Tratnik: 124 passningar, xT 0.12TratnikMbaye Ndiaye: 90 passningar, xT 0.47NdiayeMakan Aïko: 63 passningar, xT 0.02Aïko

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceKS CracoviaMotor Lublin
    Points1213
    xPoints16.118.6
    xG per match1.51.9
    xGA per match1.51.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.180.29
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.30.28
    Playing styleKS CracoviaMotor Lublin
    Build-up efficiency0.310.3
    Field tilt0.490.52
    xT per match1.21.3
    xTA per match1.10.91
    Won balls, offensive half2731
    Pressing intensity0.250.23
    Pressing efficiency0.290.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.28
    Entries into the box per match1513
    Entries into the box against1511
    Pass completion %0.750.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.72
    Passes per match322342
    Passes against per match345357
    Switches of play per match18.123
    Long balls per match2429
    Set piecesKS CracoviaMotor Lublin
    xG from free kicks0.050.04
    Corners per match5.54.9
    Corners against per match4.93
    xG per corner0.040.06
    xGA per corner against0.020.09
    First touch, offensive corners %0.450.22
    First touch, defensive corners %0.640.56
    OtherKS CracoviaMotor Lublin
    Throw-in control0.770.77
    The goalkeepersSebastian Madejski (KS Cracovia)Gasper Tratnik (Motor Lublin)
    Saves3818
    Save %68%58%
    xG prevented29%26%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    KS Cracovia
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Motor Lublin
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: KS Cracovia spelschemaMotor Lublin spelschema

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins KS Cracovia vs Motor Lublin according to our model?

    The model gives KS Cracovia a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: KS Cracovia 37%, draw 26%, Motor Lublin 37%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in KS Cracovia vs Motor Lublin?

    The model expects 1.50 goals (xG) for KS Cracovia and 1.46 for Motor Lublin, 2.96 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    KS Cracovia or draw (1X) 63%, Motor Lublin or draw (X2) 63% and no draw (12) 74%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.