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    Zagłębie LubinZagłębie LubinLow block & direct
    vs
    Korona KielceKorona KielcePossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Zagłębie Lubin (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.25 (+5 %)

    Zagłębie Lubin vs Korona Kielce · Ekstraklasa

    1 · Zagłębie Lubin 36%X 32%32% Korona Kielce · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Zagłębie Lubin vs Korona Kielce (Ekstraklasa, Monday, 2 November 2026): Zagłębie Lubin win 36%, draw 32%, Korona Kielce win 32%. Expected goals (xG): Zagłębie Lubin 1.26, Korona Kielce 1.15. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Zagłębie Lubin or draw 68%, Korona Kielce or draw 64%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Zagłębie Lubin – Korona Kielce

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    43% is the case for over 2.5 goals, so the lean is under. Zagłębie Lubin versus Korona Kielce projects at 1.26 xG to 1.15, with 1-1 the most likely scoreline at 13%, ahead of 1-0 at 11% and 0-1 at 10%. Both teams to score sits at 49%. This is a narrow home lean, not a mandate to chase the hosts: 36% for Lubin, 32% for the draw and 32% for Korona.

    The hosts hold the small season edges: 19 points to 18, 17.3 xPoints to 15.7, 1.4 xGA per match to 1.5, and 0.26 xG within 8s of winning the ball to 0.18. Their low-defence, direct profile can trouble Korona’s possession control. The head-to-head since 2023 stands at 1W, 2D and 1L across four matches; it is a small sample and weighs less than form and expected goals.

    The draw at odds 3.2 with Betsafe, LeoVegas or Nordicbet is assessed as EV+: the model rates it 32%, a 3% edge. Boring, well-supported positions pay the bills. Draw 3.2 is the sharpest angle.

    Zagłębie LubinZagłębie Lubin
    Form WLLWD
    League ranking xG #15xGA #7xT #13xP/match #7Points #7
    Key players
    • Marcel RegulaFxG 0.30 · xT 0.10
    • Damian DabrowskiCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
    • Damian MichalskiCBxG 0.11 · xT -0.01
    Korona KielceKorona Kielce
    Form LWLLW
    League ranking xG #14xGA #10xT #18xP/match #11Points #9
    Key players
    • Wiktor DlugoszRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.18
    • Patrik HellebrandCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.05
    • Slobodan RubežićCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.08

    Match prediction: Zagłębie Lubin – Korona Kielce

    Predicted score matrix

    Korona Kielce →
    Zagłębie Lubin →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.3%
    0–19.9%
    0–25.9%
    0–32.3%
    0–4+0.8%
    1
    1–010.9%
    1–113.4%
    1–27.5%
    1–32.9%
    1–4+1.1%
    2
    2–07.1%
    2–18.2%
    2–24.7%
    2–31.8%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–03.0%
    3–13.5%
    3–22.0%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–01.2%
    4+–11.4%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.0-110%
    4. 4.0-09%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,26–1,15
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,557%
    @1.80EV+2%
    Over 2,543%
    @1.90

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Zagłębie Lubin or draw (1X)67%
    • Under 3.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.93

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Zagłębie Lubin or draw (1X)67%
    • Under 2.5 goals57%
    • Marcel Wojciech Reguła to score25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals43%
    • Marcel Wojciech Reguła to score25%
    • Tamar Svetlin to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw32% probability@3.25LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
    • X · Draw32% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
    • X · Draw32% probability@3.20NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Zagłębie LubinX2 · Korona Kielce
    Betsafe2.52
    EV+ 3%
    3.20    		2.62
    LeoVegas2.50
    EV+ 5%
    3.25    		2.60
    Nordicbet2.52
    EV+ 3%
    3.20    		2.62

    Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:37

    Odds movement

    10 %
    39 %34 %

    2.50 → 2.50

    X+2 %
    31 %26 %

    3.20 → 3.25

    20 %
    38 %33 %

    2.60 → 2.60

    LeoVegas · 5 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Zagłębie Lubin 1Draw 2Korona Kielce 1
    Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 2,2)

    Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Zagłębie Lubin
    Korona Kielce
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Zagłębie Lubin (15–15)
    Korona Kielce (14–18)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Zagłębie Lubin
    Damian Dabrowski: 179 passningar, xT 0.58DabrowskiAleks Lawniczak: 140 passningar, xT 0.61LawniczakMichal Nalepa: 136 passningar, xT 0.47NalepaZlatan Alomerović: 129 passningar, xT 0.13AlomerovićRoman Yakuba: 128 passningar, xT 0.5YakubaFilip Kocaba: 118 passningar, xT 0.2KocabaDavid Čolina: 109 passningar, xT 0.2ČolinaMarcel Regula: 63 passningar, xT 0.16RegulaSebastian Kerk: 53 passningar, xT 0.16KerkFilip Szymczak: 47 passningar, xT 0.03SzymczakJosip Corluka: 44 passningar, xT 0.45Corluka
    Korona Kielce
    Patrik Hellebrand: 301 passningar, xT 0.23HellebrandAriel Mosor: 239 passningar, xT 0.21MosorSlobodan Rubežić: 225 passningar, xT 0.54RubežićWiktor Dlugosz: 182 passningar, xT 0.89DlugoszMarcel Pieczek: 150 passningar, xT 0.17PieczekKamil Jakubczyk: 139 passningar, xT 0.15JakubczykXavier Dziekonski: 120 passningar, xT 0.06DziekonskiCamilo Mena: 82 passningar, xT 0.18MenaMartin Remacle: 72 passningar, xT 0.1RemacleMichael Ameyaw: 61 passningar, xT 0.17AmeyawOndřej Lingr: 53 passningar, xT 0.09Lingr
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Zagłębie Lubin
    Damian Dabrowski: 179 passningar, xT 0.58DabrowskiAleks Lawniczak: 140 passningar, xT 0.61LawniczakMichal Nalepa: 136 passningar, xT 0.47NalepaZlatan Alomerović: 129 passningar, xT 0.13AlomerovićRoman Yakuba: 128 passningar, xT 0.5YakubaFilip Kocaba: 118 passningar, xT 0.2KocabaDavid Čolina: 109 passningar, xT 0.2ČolinaMarcel Regula: 63 passningar, xT 0.16RegulaSebastian Kerk: 53 passningar, xT 0.16KerkFilip Szymczak: 47 passningar, xT 0.03SzymczakJosip Corluka: 44 passningar, xT 0.45Corluka
    Korona Kielce
    Patrik Hellebrand: 301 passningar, xT 0.23HellebrandAriel Mosor: 239 passningar, xT 0.21MosorSlobodan Rubežić: 225 passningar, xT 0.54RubežićWiktor Dlugosz: 182 passningar, xT 0.89DlugoszMarcel Pieczek: 150 passningar, xT 0.17PieczekKamil Jakubczyk: 139 passningar, xT 0.15JakubczykXavier Dziekonski: 120 passningar, xT 0.06DziekonskiCamilo Mena: 82 passningar, xT 0.18MenaMartin Remacle: 72 passningar, xT 0.1RemacleMichael Ameyaw: 61 passningar, xT 0.17AmeyawOndřej Lingr: 53 passningar, xT 0.09Lingr

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceZagłębie LubinKorona Kielce
    Points1918
    xPoints17.315.7
    xG per match1.41.4
    xGA per match1.41.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.260.18
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.170.29
    Playing styleZagłębie LubinKorona Kielce
    Build-up efficiency0.280.32
    Field tilt0.330.51
    xT per match0.940.74
    xTA per match0.921.2
    Won balls, offensive half2625
    Pressing intensity0.250.24
    Pressing efficiency0.290.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.25
    Entries into the box per match1412
    Entries into the box against1514
    Pass completion %0.70.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.640.71
    Passes per match252335
    Passes against per match365375
    Switches of play per match25.227.1
    Long balls per match3532
    Set piecesZagłębie LubinKorona Kielce
    xG from free kicks0.070.06
    Corners per match3.55.4
    Corners against per match5.85.4
    xG per corner0.050.02
    xGA per corner against0.030.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.370.41
    First touch, defensive corners %0.580.54
    OtherZagłębie LubinKorona Kielce
    Throw-in control0.820.76
    The goalkeepersZlatan Alomerović (Zagłębie Lubin)Xavier Dziekonski (Korona Kielce)
    Saves3427
    Save %74%60%
    xG prevented29%48%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Zagłębie Lubin
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Korona Kielce
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Zagłębie Lubin spelschemaKorona Kielce spelschema

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Zagłębie Lubin vs Korona Kielce according to our model?

    The model gives Zagłębie Lubin a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Zagłębie Lubin 36%, draw 32%, Korona Kielce 32%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Zagłębie Lubin vs Korona Kielce?

    The model expects 1.26 goals (xG) for Zagłębie Lubin and 1.15 for Korona Kielce, 2.42 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Zagłębie Lubin or draw (1X) 68%, Korona Kielce or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 68%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.