Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia Białystok Prediction: Home win 39% (31 Oct 2026)

Ekstraklasa31 October 20268°12 km/h

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Wieczysta KrakówBalanced & physical

Jagiellonia BiałystokPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Wieczysta Kraków (39%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Jagiellonia Białystok @ 2.80 (+2 %)

1 · Wieczysta Kraków 39%X 24%36% Jagiellonia Białystok · 2

39%

24%

36%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia Białystok (Ekstraklasa, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Wieczysta Kraków win 39%, draw 24%, Jagiellonia Białystok win 36%. Expected goals (xG): Wieczysta Kraków 1.53, Jagiellonia Białystok 1.77. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%. Double chance: Wieczysta Kraków or draw 64%, Jagiellonia Białystok or draw 61%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Wieczysta Kraków – Jagiellonia Białystok

Oscar Nilsson · 26 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Wieczysta Kraków are the marginally better side in the underlying matchup, but Jagiellonia Białystok carry the cleaner betting price. The model gives the hosts 39%, the draw 24% and the visitors 36%, so this is not a spot to dress either team up as a clear favourite. My base call is 1-1, while Over 2.5 goals is the stronger totals lean.

The table favours the visitors, 15 points to 8, and Wieczysta arrive on three straight defeats. That is the obvious reason the market may lean away from the hosts. But results have run ahead of performance: their 13.6 xPoints beat Jagiellonia’s 12.5. The losing run matters, yet it should not erase the larger sample of chance quality.

Wieczysta also hold the edge in xG per match, 1.6 to 1.5. Their weakness is at the other end, conceding 1.8 xGA per match against the visitors’ 1.6. That explains the tension in this fixture: the hosts have created enough to deserve more than eight points, but their defensive floor has kept turning competitive matches into losses.

The style clash supports goals rather than caution. The home side are balanced and physical; the visitors prefer possession control. With expected goals at 1.53 for Wieczysta and 1.77 for Jagiellonia, the 1-1 scoreline is the single most likely outcome at 10%, narrowly ahead of 1-2 at 9% and 2-1 at 8%. Both teams to score lands at 65%, while Over 2.5 is rated 64%.

So the straight result call is a narrow home lean, not a confident home bet. The market angle sits with the visitors: Jagiellonia to win at 2.8 is assessed as EV+ by the model, with a 36% win probability and a 2% edge, at Betsafe, LeoVegas and Nordicbet. It is a thin edge, but away at 2.8 is the sharpest price on the board.

Wieczysta Kraków

Form DWLLL

League ranking xG #7xGA #14xT #4xP/match #17Points #16

Key players

Karol FilaRWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.28
Lisandro Pedro Varela SemedoFxG 0.28 · xT 0.15
Lucas Domingues PiazónCAMxG 0.18 · xT 0.11

Jagiellonia Białystok

Form LLLLW

League ranking xG #13xGA #11xT #12xP/match #16Points #10

Key players

Taras RomanczukCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.04
Bernardo VitalCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
Guilherme Manuel Serrão MontóiaLBxG 0.11 · xT 0.22

Match prediction: Wieczysta Kraków – Jagiellonia Białystok

Predicted score matrix

Jagiellonia Białystok →

Wieczysta Kraków →

0–04.0%

0–16.2%

0–25.8%

0–33.4%

0–4+2.2%

1–05.4%

1–110.3%

1–28.8%

1–35.2%

1–4+3.4%

2–04.3%

2–17.7%

2–26.8%

2–34.0%

2–4+2.6%

3–02.2%

3–13.9%

3–23.5%

3–32.0%

3–4+1.3%

4+–01.2%

4+–12.1%

4+–21.9%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.2-27%
5.0-16%

Expected goals

1,53–1,77

Both teams to score

65%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,536%

@2.50

Over 2,564%

@1.48

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Wieczysta Kraków or draw (1X)57%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Wieczysta Kraków or draw (1X)57%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Efthymios Koulouris to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score65%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Efthymios Koulouris to score23%
Bernardo Maria Morais Cardoso Vital to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Jagiellonia Białystok36% probability@2.80BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
2 · Jagiellonia Białystok36% probability@2.80LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds
2 · Jagiellonia Białystok36% probability@2.80NordicbetEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Wieczysta Kraków	X	2 · Jagiellonia Białystok
Betsafe	2.15	3.70	EV+ 2% 2.80
LeoVegas	2.15	3.80	EV+ 2% 2.80
Nordicbet	2.15	3.70	EV+ 2% 2.80

Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 24 October — the odds have shortened from 1.55 to 1.47 (−5%).

1-2 %

45 %40 %

2.20 → 2.15

X+7 %

28 %23 %

3.55 → 3.80

20 %

36 %31 %

2.80 → 2.80

Over 2,5-5 %

64 %59 %

1.55 → 1.47

LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Wieczysta Kraków have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Wieczysta Kraków

Jagiellonia Białystok

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Wieczysta Kraków (16–23)

Jagiellonia Białystok (14–17)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Wieczysta Kraków

Jagiellonia Białystok

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Wieczysta Kraków

Jagiellonia Białystok

The teams in numbers

Performance	Wieczysta Kraków	Jagiellonia Białystok
Points	8	15
xPoints	13.6	12.5
xG per match	1.6	1.5
xGA per match	1.8	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.41	0.27

Playing style	Wieczysta Kraków	Jagiellonia Białystok
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.29
Field tilt	0.63	0.57
xT per match	1.3	1
xTA per match	1.1	1
Won balls, offensive half	22	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.31
Entries into the box per match	18	12
Entries into the box against	14	13
Pass completion %	0.8	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.73
Passes per match	452	405
Passes against per match	338	280
Switches of play per match	30.4	23
Long balls per match	33	29

Set pieces	Wieczysta Kraków	Jagiellonia Białystok
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.03
Corners per match	5.4	4
Corners against per match	5.3	5.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.49	0.6

Other	Wieczysta Kraków	Jagiellonia Białystok
Throw-in control	0.8	0.75

The goalkeepers	Mateusz Kochalski (Wieczysta Kraków)	Slawomir Abramowicz (Jagiellonia Białystok)
Saves	24	31
Save %	73%	66%
xG prevented	49%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Wieczysta Kraków

Fixtures, form & tips

Jagiellonia Białystok

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Wieczysta Kraków spelschema Jagiellonia Białystok spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia Białystok according to our model?

The model gives Wieczysta Kraków a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wieczysta Kraków 39%, draw 24%, Jagiellonia Białystok 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia Białystok?

The model expects 1.53 goals (xG) for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.77 for Jagiellonia Białystok, 3.30 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Wieczysta Kraków or draw (1X) 64%, Jagiellonia Białystok or draw (X2) 61% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.