IMT vs Čukarički Prediction: Home win 47% (1 Nov 2026)

Serbian Super League1 November 20268°13 km/h

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IMTPossession & high press

ČukaričkiLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · IMT (47%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.30 (+2 %)

1 · IMT 47%X 31%22% Čukarički · 2

47%

31%

22%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for IMT vs Čukarički (Serbian Super League, Sunday, 1 November 2026): IMT win 47%, draw 31%, Čukarički win 22%. Expected goals (xG): IMT 1.52, Čukarički 0.95. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 48%. Double chance: IMT or draw 78%, Čukarički or draw 53%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: IMT – Čukarički

Anna Karlsson · 24 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: A striking pattern emerges when considering the current form and expected goals, which provide a telling narrative for this matchup. Despite Čukarički's slight edge in actual points with 15 against IMT's 13, the underlying xPoints tell a different story: IMT are overperforming their expected tally of 11.6, having collected more points than their underlying numbers suggest, while Čukarički's actual points of 15 fall short of their significantly higher xPoints of 18.1. The discrepancy suggests that Čukarički may be underperforming relative to their underlying numbers, whereas IMT have been getting more from their performances than expected.

IMT's style of high press and possession could be the key differentiator here. With an expected goals figure of 1.52 against Čukarički's 0.95, IMT seem poised to control the flow of the game more effectively. The hosts' defensive robustness is highlighted by their xGA of 0.84, significantly better than Čukarički’s 1.4, indicating a potential shield against the visitors' direct play. While Čukarički might try to hit on the break, IMT's ability to suppress such attempts could be decisive.

The most likely scorelines—either 1-1 or 1-0—underscore a game where defenses might hold the upper hand despite an offensive setup from both teams. With the over 2.5 goals probability at just 45% and both teams to score at 48%, the lean is towards a lower-scoring affair, where a solitary goal could tip the balance.

For punters looking for an edge, backing IMT at odds of 2.15 with Bet365 presents value. With the model strongly favoring the home side and Čukarički's inflated point tally relative to their underlying numbers, this could be the spot where IMT assert their statistical superiority.

IMT

Form LDWWL

League ranking xG #5xGA #2xT #8xP/match #3Points #9

Key players

Charly Soualio KeitaFxG 0.47 · xT 0.03
Stefan ŠapićCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
Vasilije NovičićCMxG 0.17 · xT 0.07

Čukarički

Form LDLDW

League ranking xG #8xGA #11xT #10xP/match #7Points #8

Key players

Marko DocićFxG 0.17 · xT 0.06
Uroš MiladinovićCAMxG 0.39 · xT 0.16
Sambou SissokoCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: IMT – Čukarički

Predicted score matrix

Čukarički →

IMT →

0–08.8%

0–17.6%

0–23.8%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.3%

1–012.5%

1–112.5%

1–25.8%

1–31.8%

1–4+0.5%

2–09.8%

2–19.3%

2–24.4%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–05.0%

3–14.7%

3–22.2%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–02.7%

4+–12.5%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-013%
3.2-010%
4.2-19%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

1,52–0,95

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,555%

@1.73

Over 2,545%

@2.02

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

IMT to win47%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

IMT to win47%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Wendkuuni Josué Tiendrébéogo to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Uroš Nikolić to score19%
Marko Docić to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw31% probability@3.30BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.30NordicbetEV+2%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.30Paddy PowerEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · IMT	X	2 · Čukarički
Betsafe	2.05	EV+ 2% 3.30	3.15
Nordicbet	2.05	EV+ 2% 3.30	3.15
Paddy Power	2.10	EV+ 2% 3.30	3.10

Odds updated 27 Oct, 05:57

Odds movement

10 %

47 %42 %

2.05 → 2.05

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.30 → 3.30

20 %

31 %26 %

3.15 → 3.15

Nordicbet · 3 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

IMT

Čukarički

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

IMT (5–5)

Čukarički (17–20)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

IMT

Čukarički

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

IMT

Čukarički

The teams in numbers

Performance	IMT	Čukarički
Points	13	15
xPoints	11.6	18.1
xG per match	1.4	1.4
xGA per match	0.84	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.4
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.27

Playing style	IMT	Čukarički
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.3
Field tilt	0.57	0.38
xT per match	1	0.99
xTA per match	0.64	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	30	26
Pressing intensity	0.2	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.36	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.23
Entries into the box per match	12	12
Entries into the box against	9	13
Pass completion %	0.72	0.69
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.64
Passes per match	306	263
Passes against per match	261	371
Switches of play per match	16.7	20
Long balls per match	29	27

Set pieces	IMT	Čukarički
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.03
Corners per match	5.4	3.6
Corners against per match	3.4	5.1
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.34	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.44

Other	IMT	Čukarički
Throw-in control	0.72	0.66

The goalkeepers	Ognjen Čančarević (IMT)	Vladan Carapic (Čukarički)
Saves	11	26
Save %	73%	68%
xG prevented	57%	34%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

IMT

Fixtures, form & tips

Čukarički

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins IMT vs Čukarički according to our model?

The model gives IMT a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IMT 47%, draw 31%, Čukarički 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in IMT vs Čukarički?

The model expects 1.52 goals (xG) for IMT and 0.95 for Čukarički, 2.47 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

IMT or draw (1X) 78%, Čukarički or draw (X2) 53% and no draw (12) 69%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.