Partizan Belgrade vs Zemun Prediction: Home win 70% (1 Nov 2026)

Serbian Super League1 November 2026 17:00 CETPartizans stadion, Belgrad8°13 km/h

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Partizan BelgradePossession control

ZemunLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Partizan Belgrade (70%)Best value by the model: 2 · Zemun @ 15.50 (+63 %)

1 · Partizan Belgrade 70%X 19%11% Zemun · 2

70%

19%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Partizan Belgrade vs Zemun (Serbian Super League, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Partizan Belgrade win 70%, draw 19%, Zemun win 11%. Expected goals (xG): Partizan Belgrade 2.41, Zemun 0.71. Most likely score: 2-0 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 47%. Double chance: Partizan Belgrade or draw 89%, Zemun or draw 30%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Partizan Belgrade – Zemun

Oscar Nilsson · 24 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Partizan Belgrade's attack, driven by their possession-focused style, stands poised to dominate Zemun in their upcoming clash. With an expected goals tally of 2.41 against the visitors' meager 0.71, the hosts are set to control the game from the outset. Partizan's capacity to break down defences is reflected in their 70% win probability, highlighting a significant disparity between the two teams.

Zemun, opting for a low defensive block, appears vulnerable given their average of 2.4 expected goals against per match. This is a team built to absorb pressure and strike on the counter, yet their offensive output at 0.58 xG per match doesn't suggest a credible threat. Despite a tight historical head-to-head (just one game resulting in a draw), the sample is too limited to carry weight against Partizan's evident form advantage.

Partizan's historical home win percentage of 58% in 43 matches indicates a fortress-like reputation, which aligns with the model's prediction of a 2-0 or 3-0 result, among the most likely scorelines. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is pegged at 60%, reinforcing the expectation of a comfortable victory for the hosts. Zemun's strategy, dampened by their ineffectiveness in front of goal, seems unlikely to disrupt this narrative.

With an emphatic edge in form, xPoints, and playing style, Partizan Belgrade looks set to take all three points decisively.

Partizan Belgrade

Form LLDWL

League ranking xG #7xGA #7xT #4xP/match #11Points #10

Key players

Nikola SimićCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.15
Stefan MilicCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.14
Milan VukotićCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.26

Zemun

Form DDLLW

League ranking xG #15xGA #15xT #14xP/match #15Points #15

Key players

Milan SpremoLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
Vasilije BakićCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.02
Godswill VadzeRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Partizan Belgrade – Zemun

Predicted score matrix

Zemun →

Partizan Belgrade →

0–04.6%

0–12.9%

0–21.1%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–010.4%

1–17.8%

1–22.7%

1–30.6%

1–4+0.1%

2–012.8%

2–19.1%

2–23.2%

2–30.8%

2–4+0.2%

3–010.3%

3–17.3%

3–22.6%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.1%

4+–011.0%

4+–17.8%

4+–22.8%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-013%
2.1-010%
3.3-010%
4.2-19%
5.1-18%

Expected goals

2,41–0,71

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+21%

Under 2,540%

@2.72EV+8%

Over 2,560%

@1.50

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Partizan Belgrade to win70%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Partizan Belgrade to win70%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Milan Aleksić to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Milan Aleksić to score35%
Ognjen Ilic to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Zemun11% probability@15.50BetsafeEV+63%reference odds
2 · Zemun11% probability@15.50NordicbetEV+63%reference odds
2 · Zemun11% probability@13.00Bet365EV+37%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Partizan Belgrade	X	2 · Zemun
Bet365	1.17	EV+ 34% 7.00	EV+ 37% 13.00
Betsafe	1.14	EV+ 22% 6.40	EV+ 63% 15.50
Nordicbet	1.14	EV+ 22% 6.40	EV+ 63% 15.50

Odds updated 27 Oct, 10:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

83 %78 %

1.12 → 1.14

X-6 %

16 %11 %

6.80 → 6.40

2-14 %

8 %3 %

18.00 → 15.50

Over 2,5+1 %

69 %64 %

1.39 → 1.40

Nordicbet · 4 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Partizan Belgrade 0Draw 1Zemun 0

Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

FK Partizan Belgrade win 58% of their home matches all-time (43 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Partizan Belgrade

Zemun

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Partizan Belgrade (18–20)

Zemun (7–25)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Partizan Belgrade

Zemun

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Partizan Belgrade

Zemun

The teams in numbers

Performance	Partizan Belgrade	Zemun
Points	11	6
xPoints	12.8	8.9
xG per match	1.4	0.58
xGA per match	1.2	2.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.12	0.11
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.32	0.47

Playing style	Partizan Belgrade	Zemun
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.29
Field tilt	0.65	0.29
xT per match	1.3	0.7
xTA per match	1.1	1.8
Won balls, offensive half	28	21
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.19
Entries into the box per match	15	8
Entries into the box against	11	19
Pass completion %	0.77	0.7
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.67
Passes per match	401	246
Passes against per match	245	436
Switches of play per match	34.4	14.1
Long balls per match	51	26

Set pieces	Partizan Belgrade	Zemun
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.03
Corners per match	5.5	2.9
Corners against per match	2.7	5.1
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.61

Other	Partizan Belgrade	Zemun
Throw-in control	0.73	0.65

The goalkeepers	Miloš Krunić (Partizan Belgrade)	Mladen Živković (Zemun)
Saves	20	50
Save %	56%	76%
xG prevented	28%	65%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Partizan Belgrade

Fixtures, form & tips

Zemun

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Partizan Belgrade vs Zemun according to our model?

The model gives Partizan Belgrade a 70% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Partizan Belgrade 70%, draw 19%, Zemun 11%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Partizan Belgrade vs Zemun?

The model expects 2.41 goals (xG) for Partizan Belgrade and 0.71 for Zemun, 3.12 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Partizan Belgrade or draw (1X) 89%, Zemun or draw (X2) 30% and no draw (12) 81%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.