01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Radnički 1923 to win49%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Serbian Super League8°7,6 mm8 km/h
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Radnički 1923Possession controlvs
Novi PazarPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Radnički 1923 (49%)
Radnički 1923 vs Novi Pazar · Serbian Super League
1 · Radnički 1923 49%X 28%23% Novi Pazar · 2
49%
28%
23%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Radnički 1923 vs Novi Pazar (Serbian Super League, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Radnički 1923 win 49%, draw 28%, Novi Pazar win 23%. Expected goals (xG): Radnički 1923 1.56, Novi Pazar 1.08. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Radnički 1923 or draw 77%, Novi Pazar or draw 51%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.
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Analysis: Radnički 1923 – Novi Pazar
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
The numbers paint a picture of Radnički 1923 having the upper hand against Novi Pazar, with a 49% probability of winning. Despite the historical dominance of the visitors in this fixture, with a small sample size of six matches, current form and expected goals add weight to the hosts' chances. Radnički has scored 1.7 expected goals per match compared to Novi Pazar's 1.4, suggesting a slight edge in attacking prowess.
The expected goals model indicates a moderate likelihood of under 2.5 goals, at 51%, which aligns with the playing styles of both teams focusing on possession control. This tactical similarity might lead to a cautious encounter, potentially limiting high-scoring opportunities. However, Radnički's stronger xG metric hints at their capacity to break the deadlock, especially with a probability of 11% for a 1-0 scoreline.
Examining xPoints gives an intriguing twist. Novi Pazar outperforms their actual points tally with an xPoints of 21.5, reflecting missed opportunities that their underlying numbers suggest they might have converted. Meanwhile, Radnički's xPoints of 17.7 suggest they've slightly overachieved in terms of results. This nuance implies that the visitors could be more dangerous than their current standing suggests.
The both teams to score probability at 52% matches the most likely drawn scoreline of 1-1, which stands at 12%. A competitive stalemate seems plausible if both sides can capitalize on their calculated possession play. Yet, Radnički's home advantage and slight statistical edge might tip the balance in a closely contested match.
The model's probabilities point towards a narrow home victory as the most probable outcome, possibly a 1-0 or 2-1 win, albeit the subtle threat from Novi Pazar should not be overlooked.
Radnički 1923Form WWLLW
League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #2xP/match #8Points #4
Key players
- Slobodan SimovićCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.10
- Nemanja GlavčićFxG 0.13 · xT 0.13
- Miloš RistićCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.16
Novi PazarForm DDLLW
League ranking xG #6xGA #6xT #6xP/match #5Points #7
Key players
- Kaheim Anthony DixonLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.14
- Adem Bojan LjajićCAMxG 0.23 · xT 0.21
- Ahmed HadžimujovićCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: Radnički 1923 – Novi Pazar
Predicted score matrix
Novi Pazar →
Radnički 1923 →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.5%
0–17.3%
0–24.1%
0–31.5%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–010.8%
1–112.4%
1–26.5%
1–32.3%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.7%
2–19.4%
2–25.1%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–04.5%
3–14.9%
3–22.6%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–02.5%
4+–12.7%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,56–1,08
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,607%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@1.85
Over 2,549%
@1.95
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Radnički 1923 to win49%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Uroš Sremčević to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Uroš Sremčević to score29%
- Dimitrije Janković to be booked26%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Radnički 192349% probability@2.10Bet365EV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Radnički 1923 | X | 2 · Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | EV+ 3% 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| Betsafe | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.35 |
| Nordicbet | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.35 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 17:01
Odds movement
10 %
48 %43 %
2.00 → 2.00
X0 %
30 %25 %
3.25 → 3.25
20 %
29 %24 %
3.35 → 3.35
Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesRadnički 1923 1Draw 2Novi Pazar 3
Goals: 5–7 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- FK Novi Pazar dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Radnički 1923
Novi Pazar
Radnički 1923 (18–14)
Novi Pazar (13–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Radnički 1923
Novi Pazar
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Radnički 1923
Novi Pazar
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Radnički 1923 | Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20 | 16 |
| xPoints | 17.7 | 21.5 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Radnički 1923 | Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.61 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.96 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 311 | 285 |
| Passes against per match | 226 | 322 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.7 | 26.4 |
| Long balls per match | 25 | 38 |
| Set pieces | Radnički 1923 | Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 6.9 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 4.2 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.27 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| Other | Radnički 1923 | Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Luka Lijeskić (Radnički 1923) | Bogdan Matijašević (Novi Pazar) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 29 | 30 |
| Save % | 71% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 62% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Radnički 1923 vs Novi Pazar according to our model?
The model gives Radnički 1923 a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Radnički 1923 49%, draw 28%, Novi Pazar 23%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Radnički 1923 vs Novi Pazar?
The model expects 1.56 goals (xG) for Radnički 1923 and 1.08 for Novi Pazar, 2.64 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Radnički 1923 or draw (1X) 77%, Novi Pazar or draw (X2) 51% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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