01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Radnik Surdulica or draw (X2)71%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Serbian Super League5°19,0 mm16 km/h
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Mladost LučaniLow block & directvs
Radnik SurdulicaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Radnik Surdulica (43%)
Mladost Lučani vs Radnik Surdulica · Serbian Super League
1 · Mladost Lučani 29%X 28%43% Radnik Surdulica · 2
29%
28%
43%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Mladost Lučani vs Radnik Surdulica (Serbian Super League, Monday, 2 November 2026): Mladost Lučani win 29%, draw 28%, Radnik Surdulica win 43%. Expected goals (xG): Mladost Lučani 1.16, Radnik Surdulica 1.48. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Mladost Lučani or draw 57%, Radnik Surdulica or draw 71%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.
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Analysis: Mladost Lučani – Radnik Surdulica
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
In this matchup, the contrasting styles between Mladost Lučani and Radnik Surdulica shape the narrative. The hosts lean on a low defensive block, looking to exploit direct counters, while the visitors are all about possession and a high press. Given Radnik's superior expected goals (xG) and attacking efficiency within eight seconds of winning the ball, their approach could prove decisive here.
The numbers clearly favor Radnik Surdulica. They hold a 43% win probability compared to Mladost's 29%. The expected goals tell a similar story: 1.48 for the visitors against 1.16 for the home side. This suggests Radnik's attacking prowess could breach Mladost's defenses more effectively. Even in a small head-to-head sample since 2023, Mladost's unbeaten record (1 win, 2 draws) is less compelling when pitted against Radnik's current form and xG superiority.
The most likely scorelines, 1-1 (13%) and 0-1 (10%), reflect a tight contest but lean towards Radnik finding the edge. Given the expected goals against (xGA) figures—Mladost's 1.8 versus Radnik's 1.4—it seems the visitors are more adept at both attacking and defensive phases. The chance of over 2.5 goals sits at 49%, so a low-scoring affair seems on the cards, although just slightly below even.
The standout betting angle emerges with Radnik Surdulica's win probability. At odds implying value, particularly if a bookmaker offers north of the implied probability, backing Radnik to edge this could indeed 'pay the bills'. Their systemic control and attacking threat, highlighted by superior xG metrics, suggest they should come out on top in what may ultimately be a restrained encounter.
Mladost LučaniForm WLWDL
League ranking xG #13xGA #13xT #15xP/match #10Points #6
Key players
- Vasil TašovskiRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.00
- Nikola AndrićCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.04
- Aleksandar VarjačićRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.15
Radnik SurdulicaForm DDLWL
League ranking xG #9xGA #9xT #9xP/match #9Points #5
Key players
- Aleksandar PejovićCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.35
- Sadick AbubakarCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.04
- Vukašin BogdanovićFxG 0.54 · xT 0.01
Match prediction: Mladost Lučani – Radnik Surdulica
Predicted score matrix
Radnik Surdulica →
Mladost Lučani →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.5%
0–110.2%
0–27.8%
0–33.9%
0–4+2.0%
1
1–07.9%
1–112.6%
1–29.1%
1–34.5%
1–4+2.3%
2
2–04.8%
2–17.1%
2–25.3%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–01.9%
3–12.7%
3–22.0%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–00.7%
4+–11.0%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.0-28%
Expected goals
1,16–1,48
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@1.65
Over 2,549%
@2.20EV+8%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Radnik Surdulica or draw (X2)71%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Luka Zorić to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Vasil Tašovski to score28%
- Miloš Popović to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Radnik Surdulica43% probability@2.63Bet365EV+13%reference odds
- Over 3.527% probability@4.00Bet365EV+9%reference odds
- Over 2.549% probability@2.20Bet365EV+8%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Mladost Lučani | X | 2 · Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.20 | EV+ 13% 2.63 |
Odds updated 27 Oct, 05:57
Odds movement
10 %
37 %32 %
2.70 → 2.70
X0 %
32 %27 %
3.20 → 3.20
20 %
38 %33 %
2.63 → 2.63
Bet365 · 2 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesMladost Lučani 1Draw 2Radnik Surdulica 0
Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 1)
Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Mladost Lučani
Radnik Surdulica
Mladost Lučani (11–17)
Radnik Surdulica (17–17)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Mladost Lučani
Radnik Surdulica
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Mladost Lučani
Radnik Surdulica
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Mladost Lučani | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 17 |
| xPoints | 14.2 | 18.9 |
| xG per match | 0.83 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.08 | 0.31 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| Playing style | Mladost Lučani | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.25 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 0.6 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 251 | 301 |
| Passes against per match | 428 | 313 |
| Switches of play per match | 11 | 19.2 |
| Long balls per match | 24 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Mladost Lučani | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 2.9 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 6.3 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.47 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| Other | Mladost Lučani | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Saša Stamenković (Mladost Lučani) | Stefan Ranđelović (Radnik Surdulica) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 51 | 37 |
| Save % | 81% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 67% | 45% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Mladost Lučani vs Radnik Surdulica according to our model?
The model gives Radnik Surdulica a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mladost Lučani 29%, draw 28%, Radnik Surdulica 43%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Mladost Lučani vs Radnik Surdulica?
The model expects 1.16 goals (xG) for Mladost Lučani and 1.48 for Radnik Surdulica, 2.64 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Mladost Lučani or draw (1X) 57%, Radnik Surdulica or draw (X2) 71% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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