Besiktas JK vs İstanbul Başakşehir: Prediction & Odds (26 Oct 2026)

Süper Lig26 October 202617°0,2 mm16 km/h

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Besiktas JKPossession & high press

2–0

İstanbul BaşakşehirBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Besiktas JK (69%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 23.00 (+31 %)

1 · Besiktas JK 69%X 20%11% İstanbul Başakşehir · 2

69%

20%

Prediction summary

Final score 2–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Besiktas JK vs İstanbul Başakşehir (Süper Lig, Monday, 26 October 2026): Besiktas JK win 69%, draw 20%, İstanbul Başakşehir win 11%. Expected goals (xG): Besiktas JK 2.07, İstanbul Başakşehir 0.85. Most likely score: 2-0 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Besiktas JK or draw 89%, İstanbul Başakşehir or draw 31%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Besiktas JK – İstanbul Başakşehir

Erik Lindberg · 24 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT'TEKİ HATALAR:

1. Baş-başa geçmiş (H2H) yanlış aktarılmış: Metin "iki galibiyet ve bir beraberlik" diyor ama FAKTA'da 4 maçta 2G 1B 1M var — bir mağlubiyet atlanmış.

2. "düşük skorlu bir karşılaşmaya kayabilir" ifadesi verilerle çelişiyor: 2.5 üst olasılığı %56 (yani üstü daha olası) ve toplam xG 2.92 ile bu iddia desteklenmiyor.

DÜZELTİLMİŞ METİN:

Beşiktaş are set to host İstanbul Başakşehir in a clash where possession and high pressing meet a balanced, physical approach. The hosts are expected to make the most of their home advantage, and the numbers solidly back them as favorites. With a 69% win probability according to the model, and a proven 62% win rate at home, Beşiktaş are likely to control the tempo and dictate the play. The most likely scorelines of 2-0 and 1-0 suggest a scenario where the Black Eagles could keep a clean sheet.

Despite the small head-to-head sample size since 2023, Beşiktaş have performed better overall, with two wins, one draw, and one loss in the last four encounters against Başakşehir. Current season form further supports their upper hand, as they lead both in points and xPoints, indicating a more efficient conversion of chances. Their expected goals (xG) per match stands at 1.8, overshadowing the visitors' 1.6. Defensively, Beşiktaş also hold a significant advantage, allowing only 0.83 xGA per match compared to Başakşehir's 1.4, which could prove crucial.

The over 2.5 goals probability is set at 56%, with an even 50% chance for both teams to score, suggesting a moderately goal-friendly encounter despite Beşiktaş's defensive solidity. The model's expected goals tally of 2.07 to 0.85 in favor of Beşiktaş suggests a potentially comfortable victory for the home side, with goals more likely than not.

For those looking to capitalize on value, there are intriguing options with Betsafe and Nordicbet. The under 0.5 goals market offers a massive 48% edge at odds of 26.0, albeit with a mere 6% model-rated probability. More realistically, the under 1.5 goals at odds of 6.23 with Betsafe presents a 30% edge, aligning with the potential for a tight, defensively controlled game.

Besiktas JK

Form WWLWL

League ranking xG #4xGA #1xT #2xP/match #5Points #5

Key players

Emirhan TopcuCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
Orkun KökçüLWxG 0.38 · xT 0.20
Tiago Emanuel Embaló DjalóCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07

İstanbul Başakşehir

Form LLWDW

League ranking xG #5xGA #11xT #6xP/match #7Points #11

Key players

Ousseynou BaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
Christopher OperiLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.18
Eldor ShomurodovCAMxG 0.65 · xT 0.13

Final score

2 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Besiktas JK 69% · Draw 20% · İstanbul Başakşehir 11%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - BesiktasBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,31fair 5,43-39 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Başakşehir FKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 18,64fair 32,26-42 %

Miss

Match prediction: Besiktas JK – İstanbul Başakşehir

Predicted score matrix

İstanbul Başakşehir →

Besiktas JK →

0–05.7%

0–14.3%

0–21.9%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.1%

1–010.9%

1–19.8%

1–24.0%

1–31.1%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.6%

2–19.8%

2–24.2%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–08.0%

3–16.8%

3–22.9%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–06.7%

4+–15.7%

4+–22.4%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-012%
2.1-011%
3.2-110%
4.1-110%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,07–0,85

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@2.80EV+23%

Over 2,556%

@1.39

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Besiktas JK to win69%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Besiktas JK to win69%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Junior Olaïtan Ishola to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Junior Olaïtan Ishola to score32%
Jakub Kałuziński to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.56% probability@23.00BetsafeEV+31%reference odds
Under 0.56% probability@23.00NordicbetEV+31%reference odds
Under 2.544% probability@2.80LeoVegasEV+24%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Besiktas JK	X	2 · İstanbul Başakşehir
Betsafe	1.34	EV+ 3% 5.05	7.80
LeoVegas	1.36	EV+ 6% 5.20	6.50
Nordicbet	1.34	EV+ 3% 5.05	7.80
Pinnacle	1.37	EV+ 14% 5.59	7.50

Odds updated 26 Oct, 12:35

Odds movement

10 %

72 %67 %

1.37 → 1.37

X+5 %

20 %15 %

5.33 → 5.59

2+7 %

16 %11 %

7.00 → 7.50

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Besiktas JK 2Draw 1İstanbul Başakşehir 1

Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

Key facts

Besiktas win 62% of their home matches all-time (39 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Besiktas JK

İstanbul Başakşehir

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Besiktas JK (16–10)

İstanbul Başakşehir (12–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Besiktas JK

İstanbul Başakşehir

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Besiktas JK

İstanbul Başakşehir

The teams in numbers

Performance	Besiktas JK	İstanbul Başakşehir
Points	15	11
xPoints	12.6	12.3
xG per match	1.8	1.6
xGA per match	0.83	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.25	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.32	0.34

Playing style	Besiktas JK	İstanbul Başakşehir
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.31
Field tilt	0.75	0.57
xT per match	1.5	1
xTA per match	0.58	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	27	23
Pressing intensity	0.2	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.22
Entries into the box per match	18	11
Entries into the box against	8	9
Pass completion %	0.81	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.75
Passes per match	459	406
Passes against per match	253	373
Switches of play per match	38.1	37.4
Long balls per match	41	43

Set pieces	Besiktas JK	İstanbul Başakşehir
xG from free kicks	0.01	0
Corners per match	7.5	4.3
Corners against per match	3.8	4
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.7	0.59

Other	Besiktas JK	İstanbul Başakşehir
Throw-in control	0.76	0.76

The goalkeepers	Alexander Nübel (Besiktas JK)	Muhammed Sengezer (İstanbul Başakşehir)
Saves	22	20
Save %	69%	83%
xG prevented	64%	58%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Besiktas JK

Fixtures, form & tips

İstanbul Başakşehir

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: İstanbul Başakşehir spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Besiktas JK vs İstanbul Başakşehir according to our model?

The model gives Besiktas JK a 69% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Besiktas JK 69%, draw 20%, İstanbul Başakşehir 11%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Besiktas JK vs İstanbul Başakşehir?

The model expects 2.07 goals (xG) for Besiktas JK and 0.85 for İstanbul Başakşehir, 2.92 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Besiktas JK or draw (1X) 89%, İstanbul Başakşehir or draw (X2) 31% and no draw (12) 80%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.