Champions League12°15 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Sporting CPSporting CPLow block & direct
    2–3
    LASKLASKLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Sporting CP (65%)Best value by the model: 2 · LASK @ 10.85 (+80 %)

    Sporting CP vs LASK · Champions League

    1 · Sporting CP 65%X 19%17% LASK · 2

    Prediction summary

    Final score 2–3. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sporting CP vs LASK (Champions League, Wednesday, 21 October 2026): Sporting CP win 65%, draw 19%, LASK win 17%. Expected goals (xG): Sporting CP 2.09, LASK 0.94. Most likely score: 2-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Sporting CP or draw 83%, LASK or draw 35%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 13 October 2026.

    Bet on this match

    NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
    BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
    LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

    18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

    Analysis: Sporting CP – LASK

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Sporting CP enters the matchup with LASK as clear favorites, but relying solely on the surface numbers might paint a misleading picture. Sporting's solid 65% win probability and most likely scorelines of 2-0 and 2-1 suggest comfort, yet a deeper dive reveals potential vulnerabilities. Sporting boasts a direct playing style, but this matches LASK's own tactics, hinting at a clash in similar approaches rather than a straightforward dominance.

    Key to understanding the dynamics is the xPoints data: though Sporting leads in actual points with 6, LASK's superior 6.5 xPoints indicate their performances have warranted better results than they've achieved. The visitors are outperforming Sporting in expected goals (xG) with 2.2 per match versus Sporting's 1.5, demonstrating an attacking potency that shouldn't be underestimated. On the defensive end, LASK also holds a slight edge, conceding 1.6 xGA per match compared to Sporting's 1.8.

    This contrast between xG data and actual points highlights a fascinating tension. LASK's higher xG suggests they can challenge Sporting's defense, increasing the likelihood of both teams finding the back of the net. Although the over 2.5 goals market is priced at 58%, it's the 54% probability of both teams scoring that aligns more closely with LASK's profile, potentially shaking up the narrative of a straightforward home win.

    Finally, amidst all the statistical intrigue, the sharpest betting angle emerges from the value odds. With Betsafe and Nordicbet offering a compelling 12.5 on an away win, the model's 17% probability presents a significant edge. LeoVegas's 10.0 odds still offer value at a 66% edge. While Sporting remains the likely victor, the numbers suggest that LASK shouldn't be dismissed outright, offering fertile ground for those seeking an underdog surprise.

    Sporting CPSporting CP
    Form WLDWW
    League ranking xG #28xGA #38xT #49xP/match #18Points #10
    Key players
    • Francisco TrincaoRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.09
    • Goncalo InacioCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.13
    • Luis SuarezFxG 0.47 · xT 0.07
    LASKLASK
    Form LWLL
    League ranking xG #13xGA #32xT #16xP/match #20Points #26
    Key players
    • Moses UsorFxG 0.24 · xT 0.20
    • Sascha HorvathLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.18
    • Samuel AdeniranFxG 0.82 · xT 0.05
    Final score
    2 – 3
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Sporting CP 65% · Draw 19% · LASK 17%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - LASKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 25,14fair 25,42-1 %
    Hit

    Match prediction: Sporting CP – LASK

    Predicted score matrix

    LASK →
    Sporting CP →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.1%
    0–14.3%
    0–22.1%
    0–30.7%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–09.9%
    1–19.8%
    1–24.4%
    1–31.4%
    1–4+0.4%
    2
    2–010.6%
    2–19.9%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.4%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–07.4%
    3–16.9%
    3–23.2%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–06.3%
    4+–15.9%
    4+–22.7%
    4+–30.9%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-011%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.1-010%
    4. 4.1-110%
    5. 5.3-07%
    Expected goals
    2,09–0,94
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,542%
    @3.13EV+31%
    Over 2,558%
    @1.37

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Sporting CP to win65%
    • Over 1.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    54%

    Fair odds

    1.86

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Sporting CP to win65%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Rodrigo Zalazar Martínez to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Rodrigo Zalazar Martínez to score23%
    • Melayro Chakewno Jalaino Bogarde to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · LASK17% probability@10.85PinnacleEV+80%reference odds
    • 2 · LASK17% probability@9.60BetsafeEV+59%reference odds
    • 2 · LASK17% probability@9.60NordicbetEV+59%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Sporting CPX2 · LASK
    Betsafe1.26
    EV+ 21%
    6.40
    EV+ 59%
    9.60
    LeoVegas1.29
    EV+ 18%
    6.25
    EV+ 49%
    9.00
    Nordicbet1.26
    EV+ 21%
    6.40
    EV+ 59%
    9.60
    Pinnacle1.23
    EV+ 34%
    7.09
    EV+ 80%
    10.85

    Odds updated 21 Oct, 13:36

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    82 %77 %

    1.21 → 1.23

    X-8 %
    15 %10 %

    7.67 → 7.09

    2-2 %
    11 %6 %

    11.04 → 10.85

    Pinnacle · 17 recorded price levels · 19/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Sporting CP
    LASK
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Sporting CP (5–1)
    LASK (8–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sporting CP
    Eduardo Quaresma: 92 passningar, xT 0.06QuaresmaGoncalo Inacio: 89 passningar, xT 0.09InacioSergi Altimira Clavell: 88 passningar, xT -0.07ClavellMaxi Araujo: 58 passningar, xT 0.27AraujoIssa Doumbia: 42 passningar, xT 0.06DoumbiaGeny Catamo: 41 passningar, xT 0.06CatamoIvan Fresneda: 36 passningar, xT 0.13FresnedaLuis Guilherme Lira dos Santos: 34 passningar, xT 0SantosGeorgios Vagiannidis: 29 passningar, xT 0.03VagiannidisRui Silva: 28 passningar, xT 0SilvaKaique Pereira Azarias: 27 passningar, xT -0.01Azarias
    LASK
    João Victor Tornich: 177 passningar, xT 0.17TornichXavier Tshimanga Kamaluba Ntite Mukendi Mpoyi Mbuyamba: 166 passningar, xT 0.38MbuyambaAndres Andrade: 156 passningar, xT 1AndradeGeorge Bello: 109 passningar, xT 0.48BelloSascha Horvath: 105 passningar, xT 0.4HorvathLukas Jungwirth: 99 passningar, xT 0.06JungwirthMelayro Bogarde: 92 passningar, xT 0.53BogardeKasper Poul Mølgaard Jørgensen: 86 passningar, xT 0.33JørgensenAlessandro André Schöpf: 81 passningar, xT -0.19SchöpfRobert Ljubičić: 81 passningar, xT -0.06LjubičićMoses Usor: 70 passningar, xT 0.53Usor
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sporting CP
    Eduardo Quaresma: 92 passningar, xT 0.06QuaresmaGoncalo Inacio: 89 passningar, xT 0.09InacioSergi Altimira Clavell: 88 passningar, xT -0.07ClavellMaxi Araujo: 58 passningar, xT 0.27AraujoIssa Doumbia: 42 passningar, xT 0.06DoumbiaGeny Catamo: 41 passningar, xT 0.06CatamoIvan Fresneda: 36 passningar, xT 0.13FresnedaLuis Guilherme Lira dos Santos: 34 passningar, xT 0SantosGeorgios Vagiannidis: 29 passningar, xT 0.03VagiannidisRui Silva: 28 passningar, xT 0SilvaKaique Pereira Azarias: 27 passningar, xT -0.01Azarias
    LASK
    João Victor Tornich: 177 passningar, xT 0.17TornichXavier Tshimanga Kamaluba Ntite Mukendi Mpoyi Mbuyamba: 166 passningar, xT 0.38MbuyambaAndres Andrade: 156 passningar, xT 1AndradeGeorge Bello: 109 passningar, xT 0.48BelloSascha Horvath: 105 passningar, xT 0.4HorvathLukas Jungwirth: 99 passningar, xT 0.06JungwirthMelayro Bogarde: 92 passningar, xT 0.53BogardeKasper Poul Mølgaard Jørgensen: 86 passningar, xT 0.33JørgensenAlessandro André Schöpf: 81 passningar, xT -0.19SchöpfRobert Ljubičić: 81 passningar, xT -0.06LjubičićMoses Usor: 70 passningar, xT 0.53Usor

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSporting CPLASK
    Points63
    xPoints3.36.5
    xG per match1.52.2
    xGA per match1.81.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.130.23
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.160.5
    Playing styleSporting CPLASK
    Build-up efficiency0.330.32
    Field tilt0.330.51
    xT per match0.581.3
    xTA per match1.21.1
    Won balls, offensive half2020
    Pressing intensity0.250.23
    Pressing efficiency0.180.22
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.140.2
    Entries into the box per match916
    Entries into the box against1415
    Pass completion %0.780.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.760.71
    Passes per match347339
    Passes against per match526483
    Switches of play per match23.824.9
    Long balls per match2728
    Set piecesSporting CPLASK
    xG from free kicks00
    Corners per match2.14.6
    Corners against per match5.27.5
    xG per corner00.05
    xGA per corner against0.010.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50.53
    First touch, defensive corners %0.70.47
    OtherSporting CPLASK
    Throw-in control0.610.78
    The goalkeepersKaique Pereira Azarias (Sporting CP)Lukas Jungwirth (LASK)
    Saves610
    Save %100%48%
    xG prevented100%24%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Sporting CP
    Fixtures, form & tips
    LASK
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Sporting CP spelschemaLASK spelschema

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Sporting CP vs LASK according to our model?

    The model gives Sporting CP a 65% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sporting CP 65%, draw 19%, LASK 17%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Sporting CP vs LASK?

    The model expects 2.09 goals (xG) for Sporting CP and 0.94 for LASK, 3.03 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Sporting CP or draw (1X) 83%, LASK or draw (X2) 35% and no draw (12) 81%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    Bodø/GlimtBodø/Glimt
    2–2(3-2 AET)
    Union Saint-GilloiseUnion Saint-Gilloise
    1 60%X 21%2 20%
    The model missed the outcome
    LyonLyon
    3–0
    Sparta PrahaSparta Praha
    1 65%X 18%2 17%
    The model called the outcome
    Sturm GrazSturm Graz
    0–1
    FenerbahçeFenerbahçe
    1 26%X 25%2 49%
    The model called the outcome
    LeoVegas
    LeoVegas
    100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen

    Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80

    Get the bonus
    ComeOn
    ComeOn
    Welcome offer on sport at ComeOn — see the current terms on ComeOn's site.

    See ComeOn's terms

    Get the bonus
    Hajper
    Hajper
    Welcome offer on sport at Hajper — see the current terms on Hajper's site.

    See Hajper's terms

    Get the bonus

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.