01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Norwich City or draw (X2)66%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
EFL ChampionshipPride Park, Derby4°5 km/h
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Derby CountyPossession controlvs
Norwich CityPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Norwich City (39%)Soft draw
Derby County vs Norwich City · EFL Championship
1 · Derby County 34%X 27%39% Norwich City · 2
34%
27%
39%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Derby County vs Norwich City (EFL Championship, Tuesday, 3 November 2026): Derby County win 34%, draw 27%, Norwich City win 39%. Expected goals (xG): Derby County 1.25, Norwich City 1.38. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Derby County or draw 61%, Norwich City or draw 66%. Prediction updated Monday, 26 October 2026.
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Analysis: Derby County – Norwich City
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Two teams with a shared philosophy of possession control clash as Derby host Norwich in a contest that promises to be a tactical battle. The visitors have the statistical edge, leading both in points and expected points. But the heart of this matchup lies in their slightly superior expected goals and goals against numbers, which tip the balance in their favor.
Despite a smaller head-to-head sample since 2023, Norwich leads with two wins, underscoring their knack for turning possession into results. The hosts, however, can take solace in their home advantage. With a tight most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 13%, the numbers suggest an evenly matched duel where both could find the net.
Derby's problem is clear: they struggle defensively, with an expected goals against of 1.8 per match, compared to Norwich's 1.4. This vulnerability could be exploited by a Norwich side that averages 1.4 xG per game. Yet, the Canaries are not without flaws, as their edge over Derby isn't insurmountable. This game's outcome hinges on whether Derby can stifle Norwich's slightly more clinical attack.
The betting value lies with Norwich, given their modest edge in win probability at 39% and an attractive bet at odds of 2.70 with Bet365. While the over/under 2.5 goals is finely balanced at 49%, the odds suggest a tight affair. Expect a marginal Norwich win, possibly 0-1, with both teams likely to score.
Derby CountyForm DDLLD
League ranking xG #22xGA #22xT #21xP/match #24Points #23
Key players
- Sondre LangasCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.02
- Joe WardRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.18
- Bobby Lamont ClarkCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.15
Norwich CityForm LLLLW
League ranking xG #10xGA #14xT #12xP/match #13Points #20
Key players
- Kenny McleanCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
- Pelle MattssonCMxG 0.19 · xT 0.11
- Jose CordobaCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Derby County – Norwich City
Predicted score matrix
Norwich City →
Derby County →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.6%
0–19.6%
0–26.8%
0–33.1%
0–4+1.5%
1
1–08.7%
1–112.8%
1–28.6%
1–33.9%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–05.7%
2–17.8%
2–25.4%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–02.4%
3–13.3%
3–22.2%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.3%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-29%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,25–1,38
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
–
Over 2,549%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Norwich City or draw (X2)66%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Anis Ben Slimane to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Carlton John Morris to score23%
- Pelle Elkjær Mattsson to be booked23%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesDerby County 1Draw 1Norwich City 2
Goals: 5–6 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Derby County
Norwich City
Derby County (10–21)
Norwich City (20–22)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Derby County
Norwich City
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Derby County
Norwich City
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Derby County | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 12 |
| xPoints | 12.2 | 16.7 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| Playing style | Derby County | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 0.73 | 0.93 |
| xTA per match | 0.97 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| Passes per match | 308 | 343 |
| Passes against per match | 333 | 311 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.5 | 21 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Derby County | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 5.5 | 4.4 |
| Corners against per match | 5.3 | 3.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.31 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| Other | Derby County | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Jacob Widell Zetterstrom (Derby County) | Vladan Kovačević (Norwich City) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 38 | 23 |
| Save % | 73% | 55% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 36% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Derby County spelschemaNorwich City spelschema
- Southampton – Queens Park Rangers31 October 2026
- Norwich City – Watford31 October 2026 13:30 CET
- Lincoln City – Birmingham City31 October 2026 13:30 CET
- Stoke City – Preston North End31 October 2026 13:30 CET
- Bolton Wanderers – Bristol City31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- West Ham United – West Bromwich Albion31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- Middlesbrough – Charlton Athletic31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- Wolverhampton – Cardiff City31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- Millwall – Derby County31 October 2026 16:00 CET
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Derby County vs Norwich City according to our model?
The model gives Norwich City a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Derby County 34%, draw 27%, Norwich City 39%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Derby County vs Norwich City?
The model expects 1.25 goals (xG) for Derby County and 1.38 for Norwich City, 2.63 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Derby County or draw (1X) 61%, Norwich City or draw (X2) 66% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.