01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Millwall to win56%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
EFL ChampionshipThe Den, London11°13 km/h
Läs på svenska
MillwallCounter-attacks & crossesvs
Derby CountyPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Millwall (56%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.18 (+6 %)
Millwall vs Derby County · EFL Championship
1 · Millwall 56%X 25%19% Derby County · 2
56%
25%
19%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Millwall vs Derby County (EFL Championship, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Millwall win 56%, draw 25%, Derby County win 19%. Expected goals (xG): Millwall 1.86, Derby County 1.04. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Millwall or draw 81%, Derby County or draw 44%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Millwall – Derby County
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The central question is whether Derby County can turn possession into protection before Millwall turn it into pressure. The hosts’ counter-attacking and crossing profile attacks the softest part of this matchup: Derby concede 1.8 xGA per match, against Millwall’s 1.3. The analysis points plainly to a home edge, with Millwall given a 56% win probability to Derby’s 19%, but the likeliest individual scoreline is still 1-1 at 11%. That tension matters.
Millwall have 15 points to the visitors’ 7, yet the underlying gap is wider: 18.2 xPoints against 12.2. They create 1.7 xG per match and Derby create 1.0, while the expected-goals projection for this game is 1.86 to 1.04. Possession control can slow a match, but it can also leave spaces after turnovers, especially against a side built to break and load the box. Derby need clean circulation; Millwall need only a few direct sequences to make their superiority count.
The head-to-head record since 2023 favours the Lions too: 2W, 2D, 0L from 4 matches. Still, this is a small sample and weighs less than current form indicators and expected goals. The stronger case comes from Millwall’s points, xPoints, chance creation and defensive numbers rather than those four meetings. My score call is 2-1 to the hosts, even if 1-1 has the highest isolated model probability.
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 56%, with both teams to score also rated 55%. Betsafe’s 1.85 on over 2.5 is assessed as EV+, carrying a 3% edge from the model. The bolder number is over 3.5 at 3.18, available with Betsafe and Nordicbet: a 33% model rating gives it a 6% edge, and Millwall’s transition threat is the reason that price stands out.
MillwallForm DWLDL
League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #4xP/match #7Points #14
Key players
- Jake CooperCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.05
- Caleb Joaquin TaylorCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.08
- Lyndon John DykesFxG 0.38 · xT 0.04
Derby CountyForm DDLLD
League ranking xG #22xGA #22xT #21xP/match #24Points #23
Key players
- Sondre LangasCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.02
- Joe WardRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.18
- Bobby Lamont ClarkCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.15
Match prediction: Millwall – Derby County
Predicted score matrix
Derby County →
Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.8%
0–15.4%
0–23.0%
0–31.0%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–09.9%
1–110.9%
1–25.6%
1–31.9%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.5%
2–19.9%
2–25.2%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–05.9%
3–16.1%
3–23.2%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–04.2%
4+–14.4%
4+–22.3%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.3-16%
Expected goals
1,86–1,04
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@1.96
Over 2,556%
@1.85EV+3%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Millwall to win56%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Camiel Neghli to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Camiel Neghli to score30%
- Sondre Klingen Langås to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.533% probability@3.18BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
- Over 3.533% probability@3.18NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
- Over 2.556% probability@1.85BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Millwall | X | 2 · Derby County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.68 | 3.85 | 4.85 |
| LeoVegas | 1.64 | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| Nordicbet | 1.68 | 3.85 | 4.85 |
Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1-5 %
57 %52 %
1.73 → 1.64
X+3 %
27 %22 %
3.70 → 3.80
2+9 %
23 %18 %
4.30 → 4.70
Over 2,50 %
54 %49 %
1.80 → 1.80
LeoVegas · 10 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesMillwall 2Draw 2Derby County 0
Goals: 4–2 (⌀ 1,5)
Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Millwall
Derby County
Millwall (19–20)
Derby County (10–21)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Millwall
Derby County
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Millwall
Derby County
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Millwall | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 15 | 7 |
| xPoints | 18.2 | 12.2 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Millwall | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.73 |
| xTA per match | 0.94 | 0.97 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 271 | 308 |
| Passes against per match | 306 | 333 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.9 | 21.5 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Millwall | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 5.8 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.9 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| Other | Millwall | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Maxime Teremoana Crocombe (Millwall) | Jacob Widell Zetterstrom (Derby County) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 15 | 38 |
| Save % | 63% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 36% | 45% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Millwall spelschemaDerby County spelschema
- Sheffield United – Wrexham30 October 2026 21:00 CET
- Southampton – Queens Park Rangers31 October 2026
- Norwich City – Watford31 October 2026 13:30 CET
- Lincoln City – Birmingham City31 October 2026 13:30 CET
- Stoke City – Preston North End31 October 2026 13:30 CET
- Bolton Wanderers – Bristol City31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- West Ham United – West Bromwich Albion31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- Middlesbrough – Charlton Athletic31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- Wolverhampton – Cardiff City31 October 2026 16:00 CET
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Millwall vs Derby County according to our model?
The model gives Millwall a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Millwall 56%, draw 25%, Derby County 19%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Millwall vs Derby County?
The model expects 1.86 goals (xG) for Millwall and 1.04 for Derby County, 2.91 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Millwall or draw (1X) 81%, Derby County or draw (X2) 44% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.