Portsmouth vs Swansea City Prediction: Home win 41% (3 Nov 2026)

EFL Championship3 November 2026Fratton Park, Portsmouth10°16 km/h

Läs på svenska

PortsmouthPossession control

Swansea CityPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Portsmouth (41%)

1 · Portsmouth 41%X 33%26% Swansea City · 2

41%

33%

26%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Portsmouth vs Swansea City (EFL Championship, Tuesday, 3 November 2026): Portsmouth win 41%, draw 33%, Swansea City win 26%. Expected goals (xG): Portsmouth 1.28, Swansea City 1.13. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Portsmouth or draw 74%, Swansea City or draw 59%. Prediction updated Monday, 26 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Portsmouth – Swansea City

Oscar Nilsson · 26 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Portsmouth goes into this clash with Swansea City holding a statistical edge that the betting odds might not fully capture. Despite trailing in the points tally by five, Pompey has outperformed Swansea in expected points, signaling underappreciated consistency at creating and limiting chances. This discrepancy suggests potential value in betting on a home win.

Both teams share a possession-first approach, which often leads to tight contests. The model's most likely outcomes are narrow margins—1-1 and 1-0—indicating a low-scoring affair. Given the over 2.5 goals probability is only 44%, bettors might lean towards the under, expecting a tactical battle rather than a shooting gallery.

Portsmouth's slight advantage in expected goals against (xGA) indicates they are marginally better defensively. This could be crucial against a Swansea side that struggles to convert possession into tangible results, as reflected in their lower xPoints. Portsmouth's ability to capitalize on chances and maintain a solid backline might be the key to tipping the scales in their favor.

The head-to-head record is not definitive, given the small sample size of four matches. Portsmouth’s lone win in this series hints at their potential to upset the visitors, but recent form and expected goals data should weigh more heavily in assessing the outcome.

For those looking to exploit potential value, Portsmouth is priced at 2.40 on Bet365. This offers an enticing opportunity, especially when weighed against the model's 41% win probability for the hosts. While not a guarantee, the alignment of analytical insights and bookmaker odds presents a compelling angle for betting on a Portsmouth win.

Portsmouth

Form LWWDW

League ranking xG #16xGA #2xT #19xP/match #10Points #11

Key players

Terry DevlinRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
Zak SwansonLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.06
Regan PooleCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.07

Swansea City

Form WWWLL

League ranking xG #12xGA #10xT #9xP/match #18Points #3

Key players

Filip LissahRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Stephen WelshCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.15
Josh KeyRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Portsmouth – Swansea City

Predicted score matrix

Swansea City →

Portsmouth →

0–09.3%

0–19.7%

0–25.7%

0–32.2%

0–4+0.8%

1–011.1%

1–113.4%

1–27.4%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.3%

2–18.3%

2–24.7%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.1%

3–13.6%

3–22.0%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.5%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-110%
4.0-09%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,28–1,13

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

–

Over 2,544%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Portsmouth or draw (1X)68%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Portsmouth or draw (1X)68%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Zachary Swanson to score16%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Marko Seufatu Nikola Stamenić to score22%
Jay Fulton to be booked24%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Portsmouth 1Draw 1Swansea City 2

Goals: 7–5 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Portsmouth

Swansea City

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Portsmouth (16–15)

Swansea City (16–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Portsmouth

Swansea City

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Portsmouth

Swansea City

The teams in numbers

Performance	Portsmouth	Swansea City
Points	18	23
xPoints	17.1	14.8
xG per match	1.3	1.3
xGA per match	1.1	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.23

Playing style	Portsmouth	Swansea City
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.27
Field tilt	0.55	0.62
xT per match	0.82	0.97
xTA per match	0.8	0.81
Won balls, offensive half	25	27
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.36
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.35
Entries into the box per match	12	12
Entries into the box against	11	13
Pass completion %	0.72	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.74
Passes per match	307	447
Passes against per match	272	274
Switches of play per match	27.9	26.3
Long balls per match	34	29

Set pieces	Portsmouth	Swansea City
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.11
Corners per match	5.8	4.3
Corners against per match	4.7	4.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.52

Other	Portsmouth	Swansea City
Throw-in control	0.74	0.72

The goalkeepers	Nicolas Schmid (Portsmouth)	Lawrence Vigouroux (Swansea City)
Saves	15	29
Save %	58%	69%
xG prevented	31%	49%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Portsmouth

Fixtures, form & tips

Swansea City

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Portsmouth spelschema Swansea City spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Portsmouth vs Swansea City according to our model?

The model gives Portsmouth a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Portsmouth 41%, draw 33%, Swansea City 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Portsmouth vs Swansea City?

The model expects 1.28 goals (xG) for Portsmouth and 1.13 for Swansea City, 2.42 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Portsmouth or draw (1X) 74%, Swansea City or draw (X2) 59% and no draw (12) 67%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.