Premier LeagueSt James' Park, Newcastle9°11 km/h

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    Newcastle UnitedNewcastle UnitedBalanced & physical
    vs
    EvertonEvertonBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Newcastle United (41%)Best value by the model: 2 · Everton @ 3.05 (+4 %)

    Newcastle United vs Everton · Premier League

    1 · Newcastle United 41%X 25%34% Everton · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Newcastle United vs Everton (Premier League, Monday, 2 November 2026): Newcastle United win 41%, draw 25%, Everton win 34%. Expected goals (xG): Newcastle United 1.46, Everton 1.51. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Newcastle United or draw 66%, Everton or draw 59%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Newcastle United – Everton

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    57% for over 2.5 goals is the model’s lean, with both teams to score at 60%. Newcastle United have a 41% win probability against Everton’s 34%, but the expected-goals split—1.46 to 1.51—keeps this tight. The analysis points to narrow home control, yet 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12%, ahead of 1-2 at 9% and 2-1 at 8%.

    Newcastle have 11 points to the visitors’ 10, but Everton lead the underlying ledger: 10.6 xPoints versus 7.1, 1.2 xG per match versus 1.1, and 1.5 xGA versus 1.9. The hosts have won 55% of 42 home matches since 2022. Their four-game head-to-head sample is small—1W, 1D, 2L—and weighs less than form and expected goals.

    Over 2.5 is a lean, not a chase. The sharper assessment is Everton away: Nordicbet’s 3.05 rates as EV+ at a modelled 34% chance and a 4% edge. Betsafe and LeoVegas offer 3.0, each assessed as a 2% edge. Boring, well-supported away value pays the bills.

    Newcastle UnitedNewcastle United
    Form LWLLW
    League ranking xG #15xGA #19xT #13xP/match #20Points #8
    Key players
    • Lewis HallLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.15
    • Anthony ElangaRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.13
    • Nico GonzalezCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.12
    EvertonEverton
    Form DWDLL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #14xT #10xP/match #12Points #11
    Key players
    • Kiernan Dewsbury HallCAMxG 0.18 · xT 0.13
    • James TarkowskiCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
    • James GarnerCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.06

    Match prediction: Newcastle United – Everton

    Predicted score matrix

    Everton →
    Newcastle United →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.4%
    0–17.4%
    0–25.8%
    0–33.0%
    0–4+1.6%
    1
    1–07.1%
    1–111.6%
    1–28.5%
    1–34.3%
    1–4+2.3%
    2
    2–05.4%
    2–18.3%
    2–26.2%
    2–33.2%
    2–4+1.7%
    3
    3–02.7%
    3–14.0%
    3–23.0%
    3–31.5%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–01.3%
    4+–12.0%
    4+–21.5%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.2-18%
    4. 4.0-17%
    5. 5.1-07%
    Expected goals
    1,46–1,51
    Both teams to score
    60%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,543%
    @2.19
    Over 2,557%
    @1.69

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Newcastle United or draw (1X)61%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.04

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Newcastle United or draw (1X)61%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Joseph George Willock to score19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score60%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Thierno Mamadou Barry to score27%
    • James David Garner to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Everton34% probability@3.05NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
    • 2 · Everton34% probability@3.00BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
    • 2 · Everton34% probability@3.00LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Newcastle UnitedX2 · Everton
    Betsafe2.223.60
    EV+ 2%
    3.00
    LeoVegas2.253.55
    EV+ 2%
    3.00
    Nordicbet2.253.60
    EV+ 4%
    3.05

    Odds updated 27 Oct, 11:37

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    45 %40 %

    2.20 → 2.25

    X-1 %
    29 %24 %

    3.60 → 3.55

    20 %
    34 %29 %

    3.00 → 3.00

    Over 2,50 %
    59 %54 %

    1.64 → 1.64

    LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Newcastle United 1Draw 1Everton 2
    Goals: 6–5 (⌀ 2,8)

    Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • Newcastle United win 55% of their home matches all-time (42 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Newcastle United
    Everton
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Newcastle United (12–14)
    Everton (8–9)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Newcastle United
    Lewis Hall: 255 passningar, xT 0.34HallMalick Thiaw: 226 passningar, xT 0.15ThiawSven Botman: 214 passningar, xT 0.39BotmanLewis Miley: 183 passningar, xT 0.67MileyNico Gonzalez: 142 passningar, xT 0.36GonzalezLukáš Horníček: 112 passningar, xT 0.09HorníčekJoe Willock: 110 passningar, xT 0.06WillockSean Steur: 99 passningar, xT 0.06SteurHarvey Barnes: 94 passningar, xT 0.68BarnesAmar Dedić: 72 passningar, xT 0.16DedićJoelinton: 65 passningar, xT 0.11Joelinton
    Everton
    James Garner: 261 passningar, xT 0.31GarnerJames Tarkowski: 228 passningar, xT 0.23TarkowskiJarrad Branthwaite: 197 passningar, xT 0.18BranthwaiteKiernan Dewsbury Hall: 179 passningar, xT 0.38HallVitalii Mykolenko: 176 passningar, xT 0.44MykolenkoJordan Pickford: 154 passningar, xT 0.21PickfordHarrison Armstrong: 130 passningar, xT 0.3ArmstrongJack Grealish: 115 passningar, xT 0.67GrealishAinsley Maitland-Niles: 111 passningar, xT 0.85Maitland-NilesTyrique George: 88 passningar, xT 0.43GeorgeMichael Keane: 62 passningar, xT 0.11Keane
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Newcastle United
    Lewis Hall: 255 passningar, xT 0.34HallMalick Thiaw: 226 passningar, xT 0.15ThiawSven Botman: 214 passningar, xT 0.39BotmanLewis Miley: 183 passningar, xT 0.67MileyNico Gonzalez: 142 passningar, xT 0.36GonzalezLukáš Horníček: 112 passningar, xT 0.09HorníčekJoe Willock: 110 passningar, xT 0.06WillockSean Steur: 99 passningar, xT 0.06SteurHarvey Barnes: 94 passningar, xT 0.68BarnesAmar Dedić: 72 passningar, xT 0.16DedićJoelinton: 65 passningar, xT 0.11Joelinton
    Everton
    James Garner: 261 passningar, xT 0.31GarnerJames Tarkowski: 228 passningar, xT 0.23TarkowskiJarrad Branthwaite: 197 passningar, xT 0.18BranthwaiteKiernan Dewsbury Hall: 179 passningar, xT 0.38HallVitalii Mykolenko: 176 passningar, xT 0.44MykolenkoJordan Pickford: 154 passningar, xT 0.21PickfordHarrison Armstrong: 130 passningar, xT 0.3ArmstrongJack Grealish: 115 passningar, xT 0.67GrealishAinsley Maitland-Niles: 111 passningar, xT 0.85Maitland-NilesTyrique George: 88 passningar, xT 0.43GeorgeMichael Keane: 62 passningar, xT 0.11Keane

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceNewcastle UnitedEverton
    Points1110
    xPoints7.110.6
    xG per match1.11.2
    xGA per match1.91.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.210.25
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.480.22
    Playing styleNewcastle UnitedEverton
    Build-up efficiency0.310.31
    Field tilt0.480.48
    xT per match0.860.95
    xTA per match0.850.96
    Won balls, offensive half2325
    Pressing intensity0.240.23
    Pressing efficiency0.310.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.280.23
    Entries into the box per match1112
    Entries into the box against1413
    Pass completion %0.760.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.75
    Passes per match346357
    Passes against per match322417
    Switches of play per match22.623
    Long balls per match2728
    Set piecesNewcastle UnitedEverton
    xG from free kicks0.030.02
    Corners per match4.54.8
    Corners against per match5.55.9
    xG per corner0.010.03
    xGA per corner against0.020.08
    First touch, offensive corners %0.280.26
    First touch, defensive corners %0.550.67
    OtherNewcastle UnitedEverton
    Throw-in control0.750.69
    The goalkeepersLukáš Horníček (Newcastle United)Jordan Pickford (Everton)
    Saves2825
    Save %70%74%
    xG prevented58%59%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Newcastle United
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Everton
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Newcastle United spelschemaEverton spelschema

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Newcastle United vs Everton according to our model?

    The model gives Newcastle United a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Newcastle United 41%, draw 25%, Everton 34%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Newcastle United vs Everton?

    The model expects 1.46 goals (xG) for Newcastle United and 1.51 for Everton, 2.98 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Newcastle United or draw (1X) 66%, Everton or draw (X2) 59% and no draw (12) 75%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.