01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Nürnberg or draw (X2)68%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
2. BundesligaStadion der Freundschaft, Cottbus12°8 km/h
Läs på svenska
Energie CottbusCounter-attacks & crosses1–1
NürnbergPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Nürnberg (38%)Best value by the model: 1 · Energie Cottbus @ 3.74 (+38 %)
Energie Cottbus vs Nürnberg · 2. Bundesliga
1 · Energie Cottbus 37%X 25%38% Nürnberg · 2
37%
25%
38%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Energie Cottbus vs Nürnberg (2. Bundesliga, Friday, 16 October 2026): Energie Cottbus win 37%, draw 25%, Nürnberg win 38%. Expected goals (xG): Energie Cottbus 1.53, Nürnberg 1.81. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%. Double chance: Energie Cottbus or draw 62%, Nürnberg or draw 63%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Energie Cottbus – Nürnberg
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Energie Cottbus's reliance on counter-attacks and crosses will face a stern test against Nürnberg's possession-based approach. Cottbus has managed just eight points compared to Nürnberg's 17, and the latter's unbeaten streak of 12 league games underscores their form. Nürnberg's ability to score in each of these matches adds pressure to a Cottbus side already conceding an average of 2.1 goals per game.
The expected goals (xG) numbers provide more clarity. Cottbus, despite their attacking setup, are only marginally behind Nürnberg in xG per match, 1.6 to 1.7. However, the defensive stats are stark; Cottbus concedes significantly more xG per match (2.1) than Nürnberg (1.5), hinting that the hosts might struggle to keep the visitors at bay.
With the most likely scoreline predictions at 1-1 and 1-2, the indications are for a closely contested affair, but one where Nürnberg has the edge. The model slightly favors Nürnberg with a 38% win probability, but Cottbus isn't without hope. They hold potential value as home underdogs, with odds of 3.6 at LeoVegas offering a notable 33% edge, according to the model's assessment. Despite this, the match leans towards a scoreline where both teams are likely to find the net, supported by a 66% chance of both teams scoring and a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals.
In conclusion, while Cottbus could exploit their counter-attacking strengths, the weight of form and attacking consistency tips the scales towards Nürnberg, potentially edging this with a 2-1 victory. However, savvy bettors might see value in backing Cottbus at the attractive odds of 3.6, looking for a surprise result against the odds.
Energie CottbusForm LDWDL
League ranking xG #7xGA #18xT #10xP/match #18Points #10
Key players
- Dominik PelivanCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
- Jannis BoziarisCAMxG 0.13 · xT 0.01
- King ManuCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.08
NürnbergForm WDWWD
League ranking xG #4xGA #10xT #4xP/match #9Points #2
Key players
- Mohamed Ali ZomaLWxG 0.55 · xT 0.16
- Adam MarkhievCDMxG 0.09 · xT 0.14
- Piet ScobelFxG 0.47 · xT 0.01
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Energie Cottbus 37% · Draw 25% · Nürnberg 38%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Energie CottbusBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,66fair 8,08-18 %
MissMatchresultat - 1. FC NürnbergBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,54fair 5,75-38 %
MissMatch prediction: Energie Cottbus – Nürnberg
Predicted score matrix
Nürnberg →
Energie Cottbus →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.8%
0–16.1%
0–25.8%
0–33.5%
0–4+2.4%
1
1–05.1%
1–110.1%
1–28.9%
1–35.4%
1–4+3.7%
2
2–04.1%
2–17.5%
2–26.8%
2–34.1%
2–4+2.8%
3
3–02.1%
3–13.8%
3–23.5%
3–32.1%
3–4+1.4%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–12.1%
4+–21.9%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.8%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.0-16%
Expected goals
1,53–1,81
Both teams to score
66%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
111%
220%
322%
418%
5+25%
Under 2,535%
@3.15EV+10%
Over 2,565%
@1.31
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Nürnberg or draw (X2)68%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Julian Justvan to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score66%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Lucas Fernando Copado Schrobenhauser to score23%
- Lukas Michelbrink to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Energie Cottbus37% probability@3.74PinnacleEV+38%reference odds
- 1 · Energie Cottbus37% probability@3.50BetsafeEV+29%reference odds
- 1 · Energie Cottbus37% probability@3.50LeoVegasEV+29%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Energie Cottbus | X | 2 · Nürnberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 29% 3.50 | EV+ 0% 4.05 | 1.78 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 29% 3.50 | EV+ 2% 4.10 | 1.83 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 29% 3.50 | EV+ 0% 4.05 | 1.78 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 38% 3.74 | EV+ 11% 4.48 | 1.84 |
Odds updated 16 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Nürnberg win since 14 October — the odds have shortened from 1.98 to 1.84 (−7%).
1+14 %
33 %23 %
3.29 → 3.74
X+8 %
27 %17 %
4.13 → 4.48
2-7 %
55 %45 %
1.98 → 1.84
Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 16/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- 1. FC Nurnberg are unbeaten in their last 12 league matches.
- 1. FC Nurnberg have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Energie Cottbus
Nürnberg
Energie Cottbus (15–16)
Nürnberg (20–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Energie Cottbus
Nürnberg
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Energie Cottbus
Nürnberg
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Energie Cottbus | Nürnberg |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 17 |
| xPoints | 7.5 | 9.6 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.43 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.33 | 0.1 |
| Playing style | Energie Cottbus | Nürnberg |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.61 | 0.6 |
| xT per match | 0.92 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.76 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 386 | 411 |
| Passes against per match | 308 | 294 |
| Switches of play per match | 28.2 | 26.4 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Energie Cottbus | Nürnberg |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 7.9 | 5.1 |
| Corners against per match | 5.4 | 5.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.46 |
| Other | Energie Cottbus | Nürnberg |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Marcel Lotka (Energie Cottbus) | Jan Reichert (Nürnberg) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 28 | 19 |
| Save % | 65% | 66% |
| xG prevented | 41% | 52% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Energie Cottbus spelschemaNürnberg spelschema
- Holstein Kiel – Hertha Berlin16 October 2026
- Hannover 96 – St. Pauli17 October 2026
- Wolfsburg – Heidenheim17 October 2026
- Greuther Fürth – Eintracht Braunschweig17 October 2026
- Kaiserslautern – Bochum17 October 2026
- Dynamo Dresden – Magdeburg18 October 2026
- Arminia Bielefeld – Osnabrück18 October 2026
- Karlsruhe – Darmstadt18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Energie Cottbus vs Nürnberg according to our model?
The model gives Nürnberg a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Energie Cottbus 37%, draw 25%, Nürnberg 38%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Energie Cottbus vs Nürnberg?
The model expects 1.53 goals (xG) for Energie Cottbus and 1.81 for Nürnberg, 3.35 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Energie Cottbus or draw (1X) 62%, Nürnberg or draw (X2) 63% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.