Holstein Kiel vs Hertha Berlin: Prediction & Odds (16 Oct 2026)

2. Bundesliga16 October 2026Holstein-Stadion, Kiel15°4,0 mm14 km/h

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Holstein KielPossession control

0–0

Hertha BerlinPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Hertha Berlin (43%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.86 (+18 %)

1 · Holstein Kiel 31%X 27%43% Hertha Berlin · 2

31%

27%

43%

Prediction summary

Final score 0–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Holstein Kiel vs Hertha Berlin (2. Bundesliga, Friday, 16 October 2026): Holstein Kiel win 31%, draw 27%, Hertha Berlin win 43%. Expected goals (xG): Holstein Kiel 1.35, Hertha Berlin 1.71. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: Holstein Kiel or draw 57%, Hertha Berlin or draw 69%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Holstein Kiel – Hertha Berlin

Oscar Nilsson · 16 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Hertha Berlin's current streak paints a clear picture: seven wins in a row and goals in nine consecutive league matches. These figures are impossible to ignore when assessing their clash against Holstein Kiel. The visitors have a commanding presence, with a 43% win probability according to the model, bolstered by their recent form. Kiel's 31% win probability suggests a tough evening for the hosts, who have shown promise but not consistency against tougher opponents.

The goal-scoring patterns are telling. Hertha's firepower is evident, with an expected goals (xG) of 1.71, compared to Kiel's 1.35. The visitors also edge all key metrics, including points and xPoints. Despite both teams' preference for possession control, Hertha's ability to consistently convert their chances into goals sets them apart. While the 1-1 scoreline remains the most likely at 11%, the 1-2 and 0-1 outcomes, combined at 17%, favor the Berlin side.

The head-to-head record is too small to weigh significantly, with just two matches since 2023 that split equally. Instead, form and expected goals should guide your betting choices. The expected rain and cool temperature could suppress the attacking flair, but the model already considers these conditions.

For those seeking value, the under 2.5 goals market is intriguing. With odds of 2.75 at LeoVegas, the model's assessment provides a 13% edge, suggesting worth despite the goal expectation. Likewise, the under 3.5 at 1.75 with LeoVegas carries an 11% edge, reflecting the possibility of a tighter match than the goal probabilities suggest. The value lies in anticipating a disciplined and possibly rain-dampened affair, with Hertha's winning streak continuing in a controlled fashion.

Holstein Kiel

Form LDLDL

League ranking xG #9xGA #6xT #2xP/match #13Points #18

Key players

Phil HarresFxG 0.65 · xT 0.00
Jonas MeffertCMxG 0.13 · xT 0.07
Guillermo BalziRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.16

Hertha Berlin

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #5xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Linus GechterCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.08
Marten WinklerRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.05
Sebastian GronningFxG 0.55 · xT -0.02

Final score

0 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Holstein Kiel 31% · Draw 27% · Hertha Berlin 43%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Hertha BSCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,72fair 6,51-28 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Holstein KielBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,22fair 10,42-50 %

Miss

Match prediction: Holstein Kiel – Hertha Berlin

Predicted score matrix

Hertha Berlin →

Holstein Kiel →

0–05.0%

0–17.7%

0–26.9%

0–33.9%

0–4+2.4%

1–06.0%

1–111.2%

1–29.3%

1–35.3%

1–4+3.3%

2–04.3%

2–17.3%

2–26.2%

2–33.6%

2–4+2.2%

3–01.9%

3–13.3%

3–22.8%

3–31.6%

3–4+1.0%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.5%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,35–1,71

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

@2.85EV+16%

Over 2,559%

@1.38

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Hertha Berlin or draw (X2)70%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Hertha Berlin or draw (X2)70%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Jón Dagur Þorsteinsson to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Jón Dagur Þorsteinsson to score29%
Kevin Simone Sessa to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.563% probability@1.86PinnacleEV+18%reference odds
Under 2.541% probability@2.85LeoVegasEV+17%reference odds
Under 2.541% probability@2.82BetsafeEV+16%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Holstein Kiel	X	2 · Hertha Berlin
Betsafe	2.55	3.70	2.32
LeoVegas	2.55	EV+ 1% 3.80	EV+ 0% 2.35
Nordicbet	2.55	3.70	2.32
Pinnacle	3.07	EV+ 8% 4.07	2.17

Odds updated 16 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

1+7 %

35 %30 %

2.87 → 3.07

X0 %

26 %21 %

4.06 → 4.07

2-1 %

46 %41 %

2.20 → 2.17

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 16/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Holstein Kiel 1Draw 0Hertha Berlin 1

Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on 2. Bundesliga data since 2023.

Key facts

Hertha BSC Berlin come into this round on 7 straight wins.
Hertha BSC Berlin have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Holstein Kiel

Hertha Berlin

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Holstein Kiel (7–11)

Hertha Berlin (19–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Holstein Kiel

Hertha Berlin

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Holstein Kiel

Hertha Berlin

The teams in numbers

Performance	Holstein Kiel	Hertha Berlin
Points	4	21
xPoints	8.9	12.4
xG per match	1.5	2
xGA per match	1.4	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.44
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.23

Playing style	Holstein Kiel	Hertha Berlin
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.31
Field tilt	0.64	0.5
xT per match	1.2	1.2
xTA per match	0.95	0.88
Won balls, offensive half	31	27
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.29
Entries into the box per match	13	16
Entries into the box against	10	12
Pass completion %	0.77	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.69
Passes per match	406	316
Passes against per match	292	340
Switches of play per match	20.7	19.2
Long balls per match	29	32

Set pieces	Holstein Kiel	Hertha Berlin
xG from free kicks	0.15	0.08
Corners per match	6.2	5.5
Corners against per match	4.7	6
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.56	0.51
First touch, defensive corners %	0.48	0.69

Other	Holstein Kiel	Hertha Berlin
Throw-in control	0.77	0.76

The goalkeepers	Timon Moritz Weiner (Holstein Kiel)	Marius Gersbeck (Hertha Berlin)
Saves	19	26
Save %	66%	77%
xG prevented	62%	72%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Holstein Kiel

Fixtures, form & tips

Hertha Berlin

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Holstein Kiel spelschema Hertha Berlin spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Holstein Kiel vs Hertha Berlin according to our model?

The model gives Hertha Berlin a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Holstein Kiel 31%, draw 27%, Hertha Berlin 43%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Holstein Kiel vs Hertha Berlin?

The model expects 1.35 goals (xG) for Holstein Kiel and 1.71 for Hertha Berlin, 3.06 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Holstein Kiel or draw (1X) 57%, Hertha Berlin or draw (X2) 69% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.