01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Hannover 96 or draw (1X)67%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
2. BundesligaHeinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Hannover12°0,9 mm15 km/h
Läs på svenska
Hannover 96Possession & high press1–1
St. PauliPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Hannover 96 (44%)
Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli · 2. Bundesliga
1 · Hannover 96 44%X 26%30% St. Pauli · 2
44%
26%
30%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli (2. Bundesliga, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Hannover 96 win 44%, draw 26%, St. Pauli win 30%. Expected goals (xG): Hannover 96 1.67, St. Pauli 1.44. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Hannover 96 or draw 70%, St. Pauli or draw 56%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Hannover 96 – St. Pauli
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: Hannover 96 enters as slight favorites with a 44% model probability, but St. Pauli's edge in actual points (10 vs. 7) and xPoints (9.9 vs. 8.4) suggests a closer contest. Despite Hannover's higher xG per match at 1.7, their defensive vulnerability with 1.9 xGA per game could be their undoing. St. Pauli, with tighter defensive numbers, might exploit this gap.
The presence of both teams employing possession and high press strategies suggests a midfield battle, potentially leading to a tightly contested match. The model's lean toward Hannover, however, reflects expectation of more clinical finishing given their higher xG tally. Yet, with the most likely scorelines sitting at 1-1 (11%) and 2-1 (9%), the draw remains a substantial possibility.
Over 2.5 goals sees a 60% probability, indicating goals could flow, but defensive discipline will be key. Although St. Pauli's superior form cannot be dismissed, Hannover's potential to capitalize on scoring chances makes them a value play on home soil. A 1-1 draw appears the most probable outcome, with action safely staying north of 2.5 goals.
Hannover 96Form WDLWL
League ranking xG #3xGA #16xT #3xP/match #16Points #13
Key players
- Mustapha BunduRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.44
- Bastian AllgeierCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
- Maurice NeubauerRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.08
St. PauliForm LDWDW
League ranking xG #15xGA #1xT #6xP/match #7Points #7
Key players
- David NemethCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
- Abdoulie CeesayFxG 0.54 · xT 0.01
- Arkadiusz PyrkaRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.20
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Hannover 96 44% · Draw 26% · St. Pauli 30%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Hannover 96Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,88fair 6,75-13 %
MissMatchresultat - FC St. PauliBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,78fair 9,14-26 %
MissMatch prediction: Hannover 96 – St. Pauli
Predicted score matrix
St. Pauli →
Hannover 96 →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.8%
0–16.1%
0–24.6%
0–32.2%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–07.2%
1–111.1%
1–27.7%
1–33.7%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–06.2%
2–19.0%
2–26.4%
2–33.1%
2–4+1.5%
3
3–03.5%
3–15.0%
3–23.6%
3–31.7%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–02.1%
4+–13.0%
4+–22.2%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.2-26%
Expected goals
1,67–1,44
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,540%
@2.25
Over 2,560%
@1.58
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Hannover 96 or draw (1X)67%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Lars Timo Gindorf to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Lars Timo Gindorf to score25%
- Eric Anders Smith to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Hannover 9644% probability@2.51PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
- 1 · Hannover 9644% probability@2.38LeoVegasEV+6%reference odds
- 1 · Hannover 9644% probability@2.32BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Hannover 96 | X | 2 · St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 3% 2.32 | 3.45 | 2.65 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 6% 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.65 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 3% 2.32 | 3.45 | 2.65 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 12% 2.51 | 3.75 | 2.73 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an St. Pauli win since 15 October — the odds have shortened from 3.00 to 2.73 (−9%).
1+14 %
43 %38 %
2.21 → 2.51
X-1 %
28 %23 %
3.79 → 3.75
2-9 %
36 %31 %
3.00 → 2.73
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Hannover 96
St. Pauli
Hannover 96 (7–12)
St. Pauli (10–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Hannover 96
St. Pauli
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Hannover 96
St. Pauli
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Hannover 96 | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 10 |
| xPoints | 8.4 | 9.9 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.44 | 0.11 |
| Playing style | Hannover 96 | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.59 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.86 | 0.9 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 20 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 403 | 352 |
| Passes against per match | 360 | 414 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.6 | 18.9 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Hannover 96 | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 5.3 | 6 |
| Corners against per match | 6.2 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.72 | 0.48 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.74 | 0.7 |
| Other | Hannover 96 | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Leo Weinkauf (Hannover 96) | Ben Alexander Voll (St. Pauli) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 37 | 23 |
| Save % | 80% | 79% |
| xG prevented | 62% | 65% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Hannover 96 spelschemaSt. Pauli spelschema
- Holstein Kiel – Hertha Berlin16 October 2026
- Energie Cottbus – Nürnberg16 October 2026
- Wolfsburg – Heidenheim17 October 2026
- Greuther Fürth – Eintracht Braunschweig17 October 2026
- Kaiserslautern – Bochum17 October 2026
- Dynamo Dresden – Magdeburg18 October 2026
- Arminia Bielefeld – Osnabrück18 October 2026
- Karlsruhe – Darmstadt18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli according to our model?
The model gives Hannover 96 a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hannover 96 44%, draw 26%, St. Pauli 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli?
The model expects 1.67 goals (xG) for Hannover 96 and 1.44 for St. Pauli, 3.10 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Hannover 96 or draw (1X) 70%, St. Pauli or draw (X2) 56% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.