Atalanta vs Parma Prediction: Home win 64% (2 Nov 2026)

Serie A2 November 2026Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo9°6 km/h

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AtalantaBalanced & physical

ParmaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Atalanta (64%)Best value by the model: 2 · Parma @ 7.00 (+4 %)

1 · Atalanta 64%X 21%15% Parma · 2

64%

21%

15%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Atalanta vs Parma (Serie A, Monday, 2 November 2026): Atalanta win 64%, draw 21%, Parma win 15%. Expected goals (xG): Atalanta 1.95, Parma 0.97. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Atalanta or draw 85%, Parma or draw 36%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Atalanta – Parma

Anna Karlsson · 24 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The head-to-head record between these sides since 2021 is tight, with Atalanta securing two wins, drawing once, and losing once to Parma. However, with only four matchups in the dataset, it's a small sample size and less weighty than current form and expected goals metrics. Tonight, the balance might tilt toward Atalanta, given their strong footing this season, both in terms of points and expected goals.

Atalanta's expected goals tally of 1.95 per game is significantly higher than Parma's 0.97. This suggests a more potent offensive capability, hinting that the hosts might find the back of the net more frequently. Despite this, the model's most probable outcomes are a tight 1-1 draw or narrow victories for Atalanta, either 1-0 or 2-0. The visitors' preference for counter-attacks and crosses could pose a threat, but their overall expected goals against (xGA) stands at 1.9, comparable to Atalanta's 2.0. This suggests defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.

The model sees a 56% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 54% likelihood for both teams finding the net. With Atalanta's balanced and physical play clashing against Parma's counter-attacking style, this matchup could see a fair number of goal-scoring opportunities, even if the finishing isn't always clinical. Yet, the edge lies with Atalanta, who are more likely to convert those chances into a victory.

For bettors looking for value, Betway offers Atalanta to win at odds of 1.55, which aligns well with the model's 64% probability of a home win. While no bet is ever a certainty, this represents a sharp angle, given the hosts' superior expected goals and current form advantage.

Atalanta

Form LLLWL

League ranking xG #17xGA #19xT #13xP/match #20Points #12

Key players

Nikola KrstovićFxG 0.53 · xT 0.10
Odilon KossounouCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
Gianluca ScamaccaFxG 0.11 · xT 0.09

Parma

Form DLWLL

League ranking xG #20xGA #17xT #16xP/match #19Points #19

Key players

Emanuele ValeriLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.17
Adrian BernabeCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.26
Mariano TroiloCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Atalanta – Parma

Predicted score matrix

Parma →

Atalanta →

0–05.7%

0–14.9%

0–22.5%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–010.2%

1–110.5%

1–25.0%

1–31.6%

1–4+0.5%

2–010.2%

2–19.9%

2–24.8%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–06.6%

3–16.5%

3–23.1%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–05.1%

4+–14.9%

4+–22.4%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-010%
3.1-010%
4.2-110%
5.3-07%

Expected goals

1,95–0,97

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@2.09

Over 2,556%

@1.76

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Atalanta to win64%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Atalanta to win64%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Nikola Krstović to score44%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Nikola Krstović to score44%
Christian Nahuel Ordóñez to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Parma15% probability@7.00NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
2 · Parma15% probability@6.90BetsafeEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Atalanta	X	2 · Parma
Betsafe	1.44	4.50	EV+ 2% 6.90
LeoVegas	1.45	4.50	6.50
Nordicbet	1.45	4.55	EV+ 4% 7.00

Odds updated 27 Oct, 11:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 25 October — the odds have shortened from 2.30 to 2.00 (−13%).

1+10 %

73 %63 %

1.32 → 1.45

X-17 %

24 %14 %

5.40 → 4.50

2-28 %

18 %8 %

9.00 → 6.50

Over 2,5+13 %

62 %52 %

1.55 → 1.75

LeoVegas · 19 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Atalanta 2Draw 1Parma 1

Goals: 9–4 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Atalanta

Parma

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Atalanta (10–11)

Parma (4–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Atalanta

Parma

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Atalanta

Parma

The teams in numbers

Performance	Atalanta	Parma
Points	9	4
xPoints	6.4	6.6
xG per match	1.1	0.82
xGA per match	2	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.14	0.16

Playing style	Atalanta	Parma
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.31
Field tilt	0.45	0.28
xT per match	0.98	0.81
xTA per match	1.5	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	20	22
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.19	0.22
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.15	0.2
Entries into the box per match	13	13
Entries into the box against	16	15
Pass completion %	0.82	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.68
Passes per match	419	330
Passes against per match	507	463
Switches of play per match	21.4	27.8
Long balls per match	24	29

Set pieces	Atalanta	Parma
xG from free kicks	0	0.12
Corners per match	3.4	3.4
Corners against per match	5	5.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.31	0.33

Other	Atalanta	Parma
Throw-in control	0.79	0.69

The goalkeepers	Marco Carnesecchi (Atalanta)	Edoardo Corvi (Parma)
Saves	31	25
Save %	74%	66%
xG prevented	52%	50%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Atalanta

Fixtures, form & tips

Parma

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Atalanta spelschema Parma spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Atalanta vs Parma according to our model?

The model gives Atalanta a 64% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Atalanta 64%, draw 21%, Parma 15%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Atalanta vs Parma?

The model expects 1.95 goals (xG) for Atalanta and 0.97 for Parma, 2.92 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Atalanta or draw (1X) 85%, Parma or draw (X2) 36% and no draw (12) 79%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.