01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Sassuolo or draw (1X)65%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Serie AMapei Stadium, Reggio Emilia8°8 km/h
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SassuoloBalanced & physicalvs
FiorentinaLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Sassuolo (39%)Soft draw
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina · Serie A
1 · Sassuolo 39%X 27%34% Fiorentina · 2
39%
27%
34%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina (Serie A, Monday, 2 November 2026): Sassuolo win 39%, draw 27%, Fiorentina win 34%. Expected goals (xG): Sassuolo 1.59, Fiorentina 1.47. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Sassuolo or draw 66%, Fiorentina or draw 61%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.
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Analysis: Sassuolo – Fiorentina
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Sassuolo's edge is subtle but persistent. Their slight superiority in both expected goals and points, combined with the model's 39% winning probability, indicates that the hosts might just have enough to edge past Fiorentina. The numbers tell a story of marginal advantages, where Sassuolo's consistently balanced and physical gameplay comes up against a Fiorentina side that's more direct but less defensively secure.
With only two head-to-head encounters since 2021, in which Sassuolo remains unbeaten, the historical data offers little weight. The real intrigue lies in the current season's xG and points metrics, both of which slightly favor the hosts. This suggests that while Sassuolo might not dominate, they have the tools to capitalize on Fiorentina's defensive vulnerabilities, especially given the visitors' tendency to concede more.
The model not only leans towards a Sassuolo victory but also implies goals on both sides of the pitch. There's a 59% chance of the match going over 2.5 goals, and both teams scoring at 62% underscores the likelihood of an open contest. This aligns well with the expected goals projection—Sassuolo at 1.59 and Fiorentina at 1.47—pointing towards a high-scoring affair. The most likely outcomes of 1-1, 2-1, and 1-2 reflect this expectation of a tight yet goal-rich game.
Given these dynamics, a 2-1 scoreline in favor of Sassuolo seems plausible. The market offers value here, with some bookmakers listing Sassuolo to win at odds better than the implied 39% probability—look for any book offering odds above 2.56. As the numbers align with an expectation for goals, consider the over 2.5 goals market as well, especially if found at favorable odds.
SassuoloForm DWLDL
League ranking xG #8xGA #11xT #8xP/match #10Points #13
Key players
- Cristian VolpatoRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.17
- Domenico BerardiRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.06
- Armand LaurienteLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.23
FiorentinaForm LWDLL
League ranking xG #11xGA #13xT #7xP/match #13Points #18
Key players
- Franco MastantuonoRWxG 0.33 · xT 0.17
- Nicolò FagioliCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.14
- Arthur AttaCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.13
Match prediction: Sassuolo – Fiorentina
Predicted score matrix
Fiorentina →
Sassuolo →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.0%
0–16.6%
0–25.1%
0–32.5%
0–4+1.3%
1
1–07.1%
1–111.3%
1–28.1%
1–33.9%
1–4+2.0%
2
2–05.9%
2–18.7%
2–26.4%
2–33.1%
2–4+1.6%
3
3–03.1%
3–14.6%
3–23.4%
3–31.7%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–01.8%
4+–12.6%
4+–21.9%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,59–1,47
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
@2.22
Over 2,559%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Sassuolo or draw (1X)65%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Domenico Berardi to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Franco Martín Mastantuono to score23%
- Cher Ndour to be booked21%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sassuolo | X | 2 · Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.52 | 3.55 | 2.65 |
| LeoVegas | 2.50 | 3.55 | 2.65 |
| Nordicbet | 2.52 | 3.55 | 2.65 |
Odds updated 27 Oct, 11:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Sassuolo win since 25 October — the odds have shortened from 2.90 to 2.50 (−14%).
1-14 %
40 %30 %
2.90 → 2.50
X+1 %
32 %22 %
3.50 → 3.55
2+15 %
43 %33 %
2.30 → 2.65
Over 2,50 %
63 %53 %
1.61 → 1.61
LeoVegas · 13 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesSassuolo 1Draw 1Fiorentina 0
Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
Sassuolo (12–14)
Fiorentina (8–17)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sassuolo | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 4 |
| xPoints | 9.6 | 9.3 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| Playing style | Sassuolo | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.95 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 392 | 334 |
| Passes against per match | 446 | 411 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.1 | 17.9 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 24 |
| Set pieces | Sassuolo | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 6.3 | 3.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| Other | Sassuolo | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| The goalkeepers | Arijanet Anan Murić (Sassuolo) | David De Gea (Fiorentina) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 33 | 21 |
| Save % | 70% | 55% |
| xG prevented | 44% | 37% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Sassuolo spelschemaFiorentina spelschema
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sassuolo vs Fiorentina according to our model?
The model gives Sassuolo a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sassuolo 39%, draw 27%, Fiorentina 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
The model expects 1.59 goals (xG) for Sassuolo and 1.47 for Fiorentina, 3.06 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Sassuolo or draw (1X) 66%, Fiorentina or draw (X2) 61% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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