01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Kristiansund or draw (1X)64%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
Norwegian Eliteserien8°12,4 mm32 km/h
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KristiansundLow block & direct1–4
AalesundLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Kristiansund (40%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 19.00 (+38 %)
Kristiansund vs Aalesund · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Kristiansund 40%X 27%33% Aalesund · 2
40%
27%
33%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–4. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Kristiansund vs Aalesund (Norwegian Eliteserien, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Kristiansund win 40%, draw 27%, Aalesund win 33%. Expected goals (xG): Kristiansund 1.36, Aalesund 1.32. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Kristiansund or draw 67%, Aalesund or draw 60%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Kristiansund – Aalesund
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Despite Kristiansund's model-backed edge, Aalesund's nuances could tip the balance. The visitors' consistent scoring streak, 15 games strong, collides with Kristiansund's three-match skid, creating a tension not fully captured by the simple win probabilities. Both teams favor a direct, low-defence style, likely neutralizing each other's strengths — though the model still leans toward a Kristiansund win (40% vs 33% Aalesund, 27% draw), with 1-1 remaining the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
The expected goals figures are nearly identical—1.36 for the home side and 1.32 for the visitors—suggesting a tightly contested affair. Aalesund's marginal advantage in xPoints (27.7 vs. 26.9) and xG per match (1.5 vs. 1.1) reflects their ability to create more chances, albeit marginally. Yet, Kristiansund's slightly better xGA (2.0 vs. 2.1) indicates a modest defensive edge. The statistics point to a narrow, cagey game where neither side can afford defensive lapses.
With a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% likelihood for both teams to score, the odds initially suggest a balanced game in terms of goal production. However, the combination of heavy rain and both teams' profiles could suppress goal-scoring opportunities, making the under 2.5 market appealing at 2.52 with Nordicbet, which presents a 26% value edge.
Head-to-head data, limited to a single draw since 2021, is insufficient to heavily influence predictions. However, when coupled with current form and playing style, it hints at a game that may not break open easily. The expected weather conditions, with over 12 mm of rain, further support this subdued goal scenario.
The standout betting angle appears to be the under 2.5 goals with Nordicbet, harnessing a significant value edge based on the model's calculations. While the model gives Kristiansund the edge to win, the conditions suggest a restrained affair, with 1-1 standing out as the most probable individual scoreline.
KristiansundForm DWLLL
League ranking xG #16xGA #15xT #16xP/match #12Points #15
Key players
- Leander AlvheimFxG 0.39 · xT 0.01
- Heine Gikling BrusethCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.05
- Jesper IsaksenLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.06
AalesundForm LWLWL
League ranking xG #10xGA #16xT #9xP/match #9Points #14
Key players
- Kristian Hemmingsen LonebuFxG 0.26 · xT 0.02
- Mathias Minik Fals Schandorff ChristensenCMxG 0.17 · xT 0.10
- Marcus Haagensen ReedFxG 0.45 · xT 0.04
Final score
1 – 4
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Kristiansund 40% · Draw 27% · Aalesund 33%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - AalesundBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,34fair 11,00-42 %
HitMatchresultat - KristiansundBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,85fair 10,35-43 %
MissMatch prediction: Kristiansund – Aalesund
Predicted score matrix
Aalesund →
Kristiansund →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.3%
0–18.7%
0–26.0%
0–32.6%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–09.0%
1–112.7%
1–28.1%
1–33.6%
1–4+1.6%
2
2–06.4%
2–18.4%
2–25.5%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–02.9%
3–13.8%
3–22.5%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–11.7%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,36–1,32
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+13%
Under 2,550%
@2.48EV+21%
Over 2,550%
@1.55
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Kristiansund or draw (1X)64%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Leander Næss Alvheim to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Leander Næss Alvheim to score33%
- Wilfred George Igor to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.57% probability@19.00BetsafeEV+38%reference odds
- Under 0.57% probability@19.00NordicbetEV+38%reference odds
- Under 1.525% probability@5.00NordicbetEV+25%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Kristiansund | X | 2 · Aalesund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.48 | 3.60 | 2.65 |
| Nordicbet | 2.48 | EV+ 0% 3.65 | 2.68 |
| Pinnacle | 2.51 | EV+ 7% 3.90 | 2.65 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:37
Odds movement
1+2 %
42 %37 %
2.47 → 2.51
X+6 %
28 %23 %
3.68 → 3.90
2+1 %
38 %33 %
2.62 → 2.65
Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesKristiansund 0Draw 1Aalesund 0
Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Key facts
- Kristiansund have lost 3 in a row.
- Aalesund have scored in 15 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Kristiansund
Aalesund
Kristiansund (22–43)
Aalesund (35–50)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Kristiansund
Aalesund
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Kristiansund
Aalesund
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Kristiansund | Aalesund |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 19 | 21 |
| xPoints | 26.9 | 27.7 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 2.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.3 | 0.38 |
| Playing style | Kristiansund | Aalesund |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| xT per match | 0.72 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 307 | 307 |
| Passes against per match | 461 | 412 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.6 | 15.9 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Kristiansund | Aalesund |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 4.1 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 6.7 | 7.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.69 | 0.5 |
| Other | Kristiansund | Aalesund |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Adrian Saether (Kristiansund) | Kristoffer Klaesson (Aalesund) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 44 | 42 |
| Save % | 69% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 55% | 49% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Kristiansund spelschemaAalesund spelschema
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Kristiansund vs Aalesund according to our model?
The model gives Kristiansund a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kristiansund 40%, draw 27%, Aalesund 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Kristiansund vs Aalesund?
The model expects 1.36 goals (xG) for Kristiansund and 1.32 for Aalesund, 2.68 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Kristiansund or draw (1X) 67%, Aalesund or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.