01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Molde to win72%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
Norwegian Eliteserien8°13 km/h
Läs på svenska
MoldePossession & high press6–1
StartLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Molde (72%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 29.00 (+21 %)
Molde vs Start · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Molde 72%X 16%12% Start · 2
72%
16%
Prediction summary
Final score 6–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Molde vs Start (Norwegian Eliteserien, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Molde win 72%, draw 16%, Start win 12%. Expected goals (xG): Molde 2.30, Start 0.94. Most likely score: 2-0 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Molde or draw 88%, Start or draw 28%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Molde – Start
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Molde's scoring streak is formidable, finding the net in 14 consecutive league matches. This consistency, paired with Start's defensive frailties, suggests a clear advantage for the hosts, reflected in the model's 72% win probability for Molde. The expected goals predict a dominant performance with 2.30 for Molde against Start’s 0.94, underlining the hosts' attacking prowess. Despite a small sample size of head-to-head encounters since 2021, other metrics like xPoints and xG further tip the scales decisively in favor of the home side.
Start's low-block defense and direct playstyle contrast sharply with Molde's possession-oriented high press. Expect Molde to control the tempo and territory, as indicated by their superior xG and xGA records, suggesting they’ll limit Start's opportunities. The odds favor a win for the hosts with likely scorelines of 2-0 or 2-1, both at 10%. There's a 63% chance the total goals will exceed 2.5, although the model sees a 37% chance for under 2.5, hinting at potential value.
For those with an eye on value, Nordicbet offers under 2.5 goals at odds of 3.35, which the model rates as a 37% probability, delivering a 24% edge. A cautious approach would note that even with anticipated Molde dominance, a lower-scoring outcome remains plausible.
MoldeForm WWWLD
League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #4xP/match #5Points #4
Key players
- Eirik HestadRWxG 0.34 · xT 0.09
- Fredrik GulbrandsenFxG 0.25 · xT -0.01
- Emil BreivikCAMxG 0.24 · xT 0.13
StartForm WLWLL
League ranking xG #11xGA #14xT #10xP/match #13Points #16
Key players
- Jens Berland HuseboCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.07
- John Olav NorheimCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.08
- Tom StrannegardLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.28
Final score
6 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Molde 72% · Draw 16% · Start 12%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - StartBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 19,22fair 26,41-27 %
MissMatchresultat - MoldeBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,02fair 4,37-31 %
HitMatch prediction: Molde – Start
Predicted score matrix
Start →
Molde →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.2%
0–13.4%
0–21.7%
0–30.5%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–08.8%
1–18.7%
1–24.0%
1–31.3%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.3%
2–19.7%
2–24.6%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–07.9%
3–17.5%
3–23.5%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–07.8%
4+–17.4%
4+–23.5%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-010%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-19%
- 5.3-08%
Expected goals
2,30–0,94
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+23%
Under 2,537%
@3.20EV+17%
Over 2,563%
@1.36
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Molde to win72%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Sondre Milian Granaas to score37%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Sondre Milian Granaas to score37%
- Håkon Holmefjord Lorentzen to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.54% probability@29.00BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
- Under 0.54% probability@29.00NordicbetEV+21%reference odds
- Under 2.537% probability@3.20NordicbetEV+19%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Molde | X | 2 · Start |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.31 | 5.65 | 8.20 |
| LeoVegas | 1.32 | 5.50 | 7.00 |
| Nordicbet | 1.32 | 5.75 | 8.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.35 | 5.87 | 8.09 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 12:36
Odds movement
1+3 %
73 %68 %
1.31 → 1.35
X+3 %
19 %14 %
5.72 → 5.87
2+7 %
15 %10 %
7.57 → 8.09
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesMolde 0Draw 1Start 0
Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Key facts
- Molde have scored in 14 consecutive league matches.
- Molde win 56% of their home matches all-time (41 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Molde
Start
Molde (46–34)
Start (24–48)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Molde
Start
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Molde
Start
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Molde | Start |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 37 | 16 |
| xPoints | 34 | 26.9 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Playing style | Molde | Start |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.62 | 0.34 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.69 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 484 | 295 |
| Passes against per match | 312 | 422 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.3 | 24.4 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Molde | Start |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 5.5 | 4.3 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.48 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.51 |
| Other | Molde | Start |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Albert Posiadała (Molde) | Jacob Pryts (Start) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 46 | 41 |
| Save % | 64% | 53% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 34% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Molde spelschemaStart spelschema
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Molde vs Start according to our model?
The model gives Molde a 72% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Molde 72%, draw 16%, Start 12%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Molde vs Start?
The model expects 2.30 goals (xG) for Molde and 0.94 for Start, 3.24 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Molde or draw (1X) 88%, Start or draw (X2) 28% and no draw (12) 84%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.