01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Sandefjord or draw (1X)66%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Norwegian Eliteserien5°9 km/h
Läs på svenska
SandefjordCounter-attacks & crosses0–2
LillestrømBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Sandefjord (39%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.35 (+3 %)
Sandefjord vs Lillestrøm · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Sandefjord 39%X 25%36% Lillestrøm · 2
39%
25%
36%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sandefjord vs Lillestrøm (Norwegian Eliteserien, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Sandefjord win 39%, draw 25%, Lillestrøm win 36%. Expected goals (xG): Sandefjord 1.53, Lillestrøm 1.40. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Sandefjord or draw 64%, Lillestrøm or draw 61%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Sandefjord – Lillestrøm
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Since 2021, Sandefjord and Lillestrøm have clashed just three times, with the visitors holding a slight edge in the small sample: two wins to Sandefjord's one. However, recent form and expected goals suggest a much tighter contest this time around. The model gives the hosts a razor-thin advantage with a 39% probability of victory, just edging out Lillestrøm's 36%. It's a match likely to be determined by fine margins rather than historical precedent.
At first glance, the league standings suggest Lillestrøm, with 33 points to Sandefjord's 24, should be favorites. Digging deeper, expected points tell a more nuanced story: Lillestrøm's 28.9 xPoints marginally outperform Sandefjord's 25.9, indicating that the gap might not be as wide as the table suggests. Both teams present contrasting styles; Sandefjord's counter-attacking tactics might exploit Lillestrøm's balanced but physical approach, making for a strategic, if not outright combative, encounter.
The expected goals metrics project a fairly even contest, with Sandefjord expected to net 1.53 goals against Lillestrøm's 1.40. This aligns with the most likely scorelines, including a 1-1 draw (12%) and narrow wins for either side (9% for 2-1, 8% for 1-2). The over 2.5 goals probability sits at 56%, hinting at a slightly higher likelihood of a lively affair, yet the model's lean remains towards a cautious under, particularly with the value found at Nordicbet.
For those hunting value, the focus should be on the under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.4 with Nordicbet, yielding a notable 5% edge according to the model. Additionally, Sandefjord to win at 2.7 offers a calculated edge of 4%. While the hosts aren't runaway favorites, these odds provide a tempting opportunity for punters keen on finding genuine value amid a finely balanced matchup.
SandefjordForm DDLWD
League ranking xG #14xGA #11xT #13xP/match #15Points #12
Key players
- Zinedin SmajlovicCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
- Evangelos PatoulidisRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.22
- Xander LambrixCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.06
LillestrømForm LWWLD
League ranking xG #8xGA #9xT #11xP/match #8Points #6
Key players
- Ruben GabrielsenCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
- Sander Moen FossCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.10
- Lars RangerRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.16
Final score
0 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Sandefjord 39% · Draw 25% · Lillestrøm 36%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - SandefjordBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,42fair 8,00-20 %
MissMatchresultat - LillestrømBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,36fair 9,62-34 %
MissMatch prediction: Sandefjord – Lillestrøm
Predicted score matrix
Lillestrøm →
Sandefjord →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.7%
0–17.1%
0–25.2%
0–32.4%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–07.8%
1–111.8%
1–28.0%
1–33.7%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–06.3%
2–18.8%
2–26.1%
2–32.9%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–03.2%
3–14.5%
3–23.1%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–12.4%
4+–21.7%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,53–1,40
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.35EV+2%
Over 2,556%
@1.60
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Sandefjord or draw (1X)66%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Nikolaj Duus Möller to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Nikolaj Duus Möller to score24%
- Gustav Kjølstad Nyheim to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.544% probability@2.35NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
- Under 3.566% probability@1.55BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
- Under 3.566% probability@1.55LeoVegasEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sandefjord | X | 2 · Lillestrøm |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 1% 2.60 | 3.45 | 2.60 |
| LeoVegas | 2.55 | 3.55 | 2.50 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 1% 2.62 | 3.50 | 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 1% 2.62 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 12:36
Odds movement
1-3 %
39 %34 %
2.70 → 2.62
X+2 %
29 %24 %
3.62 → 3.70
2+6 %
40 %35 %
2.49 → 2.63
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 13/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesSandefjord 1Draw 0Lillestrøm 2
Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 2,7)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sandefjord
Lillestrøm
Sandefjord (22–28)
Lillestrøm (30–31)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sandefjord
Lillestrøm
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sandefjord
Lillestrøm
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sandefjord | Lillestrøm |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 24 | 33 |
| xPoints | 25.9 | 28.9 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| Playing style | Sandefjord | Lillestrøm |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| xT per match | 0.95 | 0.97 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 19 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 393 | 401 |
| Passes against per match | 388 | 384 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.8 | 26.3 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Sandefjord | Lillestrøm |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| Corners against per match | 6.4 | 5.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.68 |
| Other | Sandefjord | Lillestrøm |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Elias Hadaya (Sandefjord) | Pontus Jacob Ragne Dahlberg (Lillestrøm) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 81 | 88 |
| Save % | 74% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 56% | 58% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Sandefjord spelschemaLillestrøm spelschema
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sandefjord vs Lillestrøm according to our model?
The model gives Sandefjord a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sandefjord 39%, draw 25%, Lillestrøm 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Sandefjord vs Lillestrøm?
The model expects 1.53 goals (xG) for Sandefjord and 1.40 for Lillestrøm, 2.93 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Sandefjord or draw (1X) 64%, Lillestrøm or draw (X2) 61% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.