01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Brann or draw (X2)65%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Norwegian Eliteserien6°7 km/h
Läs på svenska
VålerengaBalanced & physical3–1
BrannPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Brann (40%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 26.00 (+24 %)
Vålerenga vs Brann · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Vålerenga 35%X 24%40% Brann · 2
35%
24%
40%
Prediction summary
Final score 3–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Vålerenga vs Brann (Norwegian Eliteserien, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Vålerenga win 35%, draw 24%, Brann win 40%. Expected goals (xG): Vålerenga 1.50, Brann 1.61. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Vålerenga or draw 60%, Brann or draw 65%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Vålerenga – Brann
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The standout number here is the 60% probability for over 2.5 goals in the Vålerenga vs Brann clash. However, a closer look reveals a potential undervaluation of the defensive sides. While scoring might be expected, both teams' expected goals against (xGA) sit at 1.6, suggesting they are equally capable of keeping things tight, aligning with Vålerenga's physical style against Brann's high press.
Historically, Brann edges the head-to-head with two wins in three encounters, but this is a small sample that shouldn't overshadow the current form. The visitors hold a points advantage, yet Vålerenga's expected points tell a different story with a slight edge, indicating they may have been unlucky this season. This tension highlights a match that could swing on small margins, particularly with Brann's slight model-backed favor at 40% win probability.
The most compelling angle here is the value in betting on a lower-scoring affair. Despite the dominant narrative of an open game, both Nordicbet and Betsafe offer enticing odds on under 2.5 goals. Nordicbet's odds at 3.0 present the most appealing value with a 20% edge according to the model, while the under 1.5 at 6.5 could tempt those expecting a truly cagey duel. This is where the true opportunity lies.
VålerengaForm LDLDL
League ranking xG #7xGA #8xT #5xP/match #7Points #13
Key players
- Henrik BjordalRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.18
- Carl LangeCMxG 0.16 · xT 0.11
- Sebastian JarlCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.13
BrannForm DLLWL
League ranking xG #4xGA #7xT #3xP/match #10Points #7
Key players
- Fredrik Pallesen KnudsenCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
- Joachim SoltvedtLWBxG 0.22 · xT 0.40
- Denzel De RoeveRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.33
Final score
3 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Vålerenga 35% · Draw 24% · Brann 40%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - BrannBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,65fair 7,21-22 %
MissMatchresultat - VålerengaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,53fair 8,35-46 %
HitMatch prediction: Vålerenga – Brann
Predicted score matrix
Brann →
Vålerenga →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.8%
0–16.9%
0–25.8%
0–33.1%
0–4+1.8%
1
1–06.4%
1–111.1%
1–28.7%
1–34.7%
1–4+2.7%
2
2–05.0%
2–18.1%
2–26.5%
2–33.5%
2–4+2.0%
3
3–02.5%
3–14.0%
3–23.2%
3–31.7%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–12.1%
4+–21.7%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.0-17%
- 5.2-27%
Expected goals
1,50–1,61
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,540%
@3.00EV+18%
Over 2,560%
@1.40
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Brann or draw (X2)65%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Noah Emmanuel Jean Holm to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Noah Emmanuel Jean Holm to score29%
- Magnus Hee Westergaard to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.55% probability@26.00BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
- Under 0.55% probability@26.00NordicbetEV+24%reference odds
- Under 2.540% probability@3.00NordicbetEV+20%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Vålerenga | X | 2 · Brann |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.22 | 3.85 | EV+ 15% 2.85 |
| LeoVegas | 2.20 | 3.85 | EV+ 9% 2.70 |
| Nordicbet | 2.25 | 3.90 | EV+ 16% 2.88 |
| Pinnacle | 2.28 | 4.04 | EV+ 17% 2.89 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Vålerenga win since 16 October — the odds have shortened from 2.44 to 2.28 (−7%).
1-7 %
43 %38 %
2.44 → 2.28
X+3 %
27 %22 %
3.91 → 4.04
2+11 %
38 %33 %
2.60 → 2.89
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesVålerenga 1Draw 0Brann 2
Goals: 7–9 (⌀ 5,3)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Vålerenga
Brann
Vålerenga (35–45)
Brann (39–34)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Vålerenga
Brann
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Vålerenga
Brann
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Vålerenga | Brann |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 23 | 29 |
| xPoints | 29.6 | 27.4 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Vålerenga | Brann |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 23 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 376 | 445 |
| Passes against per match | 373 | 276 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.7 | 28.8 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Vålerenga | Brann |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 7 | 6.9 |
| Corners against per match | 5.7 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.45 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| Other | Vålerenga | Brann |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Oscar Thore Hedvall (Vålerenga) | Mathias Dyngeland (Brann) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 71 | 40 |
| Save % | 61% | 66% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 45% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Vålerenga spelschemaBrann spelschema
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Vålerenga vs Brann according to our model?
The model gives Brann a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vålerenga 35%, draw 24%, Brann 40%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Vålerenga vs Brann?
The model expects 1.50 goals (xG) for Vålerenga and 1.61 for Brann, 3.11 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Vålerenga or draw (1X) 60%, Brann or draw (X2) 65% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.