Tromsø vs KFUM: Prediction & Odds (18 Oct 2026)

Norwegian Eliteserien18 October 20265°0,8 mm40 km/h

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TromsøPossession & high press

1–1

KFUMLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Tromsø (66%)Best value by the model: 2 · KFUM @ 7.14 (+1 %)

1 · Tromsø 66%X 20%14% KFUM · 2

66%

20%

14%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Tromsø vs KFUM (Norwegian Eliteserien, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Tromsø win 66%, draw 20%, KFUM win 14%. Expected goals (xG): Tromsø 2.04, KFUM 0.94. Most likely score: 2-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Tromsø or draw 86%, KFUM or draw 34%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Tromsø – KFUM

Anna Karlsson · 16 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Tromsø vs KFUM presents an intriguing matchup between contrasting styles: the hosts' possession-based, high-pressing approach against KFUM's low-block and direct play. With a 66% probability of a Tromsø win and only a 14% chance for the visitors, the numbers heavily favor the home side. This isn't surprising given Tromsø's league position and stronger xG metrics, both offensively and defensively.

Despite KFUM's recent three-match winning streak, the small sample of their head-to-head history—just one drawn game since 2021—provides little insight. Instead, Tromsø's superior points tally and expected goals over the season paint a clearer picture of their dominance. The weather forecast of 9.5 mm of rain could dampen scoring chances, but it's already accounted for in the model's predictions, which lean towards a 2-0 Tromsø victory as the most likely outcome.

The model suggests a 57% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance for both teams to score, indicating a reasonably open game despite Tromsø's control. A 2-0 scoreline not only aligns with the statistical predictions but also fits the tactical narrative of Tromsø controlling the game and stifling KFUM's direct threats.

For bettors looking for value, Nordicbet offers Tromsø at odds of 1.55, providing a 2% edge based on the model's assessment. Given the hosts' statistical superiority and the implied probability, this represents the sharpest angle in a match that seems tilted in Tromsø's favor.

Tromsø

Form DLLWD

League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #6xP/match #3Points #3

Key players

David EdvardssonCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.06
Leon HienCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.05
Vetle SkjærvikCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.21

KFUM

Form LLWWW

League ranking xG #15xGA #10xT #14xP/match #11Points #10

Key players

Bilal NjieLWxG 0.34 · xT 0.08
Teodor Berg HaltvikFxG 0.37 · xT 0.07
Magnus Wolff EikremFxG 0.14 · xT 0.29

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Tromsø 66% · Draw 20% · KFUM 14%

Match prediction: Tromsø – KFUM

Predicted score matrix

KFUM →

Tromsø →

0–05.3%

0–14.5%

0–22.3%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–010.0%

1–110.0%

1–24.6%

1–31.4%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.5%

2–19.9%

2–24.7%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.4%

3–07.2%

3–16.8%

3–23.2%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–05.8%

4+–15.5%

4+–22.6%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.1-010%
3.1-110%
4.2-110%
5.3-07%

Expected goals

2,04–0,94

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.30

Over 2,557%

@1.62

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Tromsø to win66%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Tromsø to win66%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Jens Hjertø-Dahl to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Jens Hjertø-Dahl to score25%
Fredrik Tobias Berglie to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · KFUM14% probability@7.14PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Tromsø	X	2 · KFUM
Betsafe	1.44	4.60	6.90
LeoVegas	1.40	4.70	6.50
Nordicbet	1.45	4.65	7.00
Pinnacle	1.45	4.87	EV+ 1% 7.14

Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Tromsø win since 16 October — the odds have shortened from 1.52 to 1.45 (−5%).

1-5 %

67 %62 %

1.52 → 1.45

X+10 %

23 %18 %

4.43 → 4.87

2+23 %

17 %12 %

5.82 → 7.14

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Tromsø 0Draw 1KFUM 0

Goals: 0–0

Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

Key facts

KFUM come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Tromsø

KFUM

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Tromsø (41–30)

KFUM (27–36)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Tromsø

KFUM

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Tromsø

KFUM

The teams in numbers

Performance	Tromsø	KFUM
Points	39	28
xPoints	34.9	27.2
xG per match	1.8	1.2
xGA per match	1.4	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.37	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.25

Playing style	Tromsø	KFUM
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.35
Field tilt	0.49	0.39
xT per match	1.2	0.89
xTA per match	0.99	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	26	23
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.25
Entries into the box per match	16	12
Entries into the box against	13	18
Pass completion %	0.79	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.7
Passes per match	427	322
Passes against per match	431	441
Switches of play per match	23.3	18.8
Long balls per match	43	28

Set pieces	Tromsø	KFUM
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.02
Corners per match	5.3	4.2
Corners against per match	4.3	5.8
xG per corner	0.05	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.52

Other	Tromsø	KFUM
Throw-in control	0.76	0.72

The goalkeepers	Jakob Haugaard (Tromsø)	Emil Ødegaard (KFUM)
Saves	52	40
Save %	68%	74%
xG prevented	46%	57%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Tromsø

Fixtures, form & tips

KFUM

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Tromsø spelschema KFUM spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Tromsø vs KFUM according to our model?

The model gives Tromsø a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tromsø 66%, draw 20%, KFUM 14%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Tromsø vs KFUM?

The model expects 2.04 goals (xG) for Tromsø and 0.94 for KFUM, 2.98 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Tromsø or draw (1X) 86%, KFUM or draw (X2) 34% and no draw (12) 80%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.