01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Falkenberg to win47%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Swedish SuperettanFalcon Alkoholfri Arena, Falkenberg12°18 km/h
Läs på svenska
FalkenbergPossession controlvs
SandvikenPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Falkenberg (47%)Best value by the model: 2 · Sandviken @ 4.10 (+14 %)
Falkenberg vs Sandviken · Swedish Superettan
1 · Falkenberg 47%X 25%28% Sandviken · 2
47%
25%
28%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Falkenberg vs Sandviken (Swedish Superettan, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Falkenberg win 47%, draw 25%, Sandviken win 28%. Expected goals (xG): Falkenberg 1.72, Sandviken 1.30. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Falkenberg or draw 72%, Sandviken or draw 53%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.
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Analysis: Falkenberg – Sandviken
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
A glance at the possession control tendencies of Falkenberg and the pressing style of Sandviken suggests a clash of footballing philosophies that promises to unfurl primarily in midfield. With the hosts unbeaten in their last five league games, they come into this match with a palpable edge in form. The odds tilt towards Falkenberg, with a 47% probability of victory compared to Sandviken’s 28%.
Of particular interest is Falkenberg's home record, winning 55% of their matches historically, which underscores the model’s lean towards them despite a small, less favorable head-to-head sample. The hosts have shown resilience, collecting 51 points to Sandviken's 35, which further solidifies their status as favorites. But it is the expected goals (xG) that paint a nuanced picture. Falkenberg leads in xGA, hinting at strong defensive organization. However, their xG per match of 1.3 is slightly inferior to Sandviken's 1.5, suggesting an interesting contest when Sandviken presses high.
The expected goals (1.72 for Falkenberg vs. 1.30 for Sandviken) suggest a tight game, but the over 2.5 goals probability at 58% alongside a 60% chance of both teams scoring indicates that while the hosts might control proceedings, the visitors are more than capable of finding the net. The most likely scorelines—1-1 and 2-1—capture this balance of play, pointing to a narrow win or a draw.
From a betting perspective, backing Falkenberg at odds of 2.10 with Bet365 could provide value, given their form and home strength. While the head-to-head record offers a note of caution, the overall indicators suggest a 2-1 home win is on the cards.
FalkenbergForm WWDWW
League ranking xG #7xGA #5xT #15xP/match #5Points #2
Key players
- Melker NilssonCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.11
- Oskar LindbergRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.29
- Elias MohammadFxG 0.12 · xT 0.19
SandvikenForm LDWLD
League ranking xG #3xGA #7xT #8xP/match #9Points #9
Key players
- Adam KianiLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.16
- Linus TagessonRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.25
- Valassina Solo DiomandeLBxG 0.08 · xT 0.16
Match prediction: Falkenberg – Sandviken
Predicted score matrix
Sandviken →
Falkenberg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.2%
0–16.0%
0–24.1%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–08.1%
1–111.2%
1–27.1%
1–33.1%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–07.2%
2–19.4%
2–26.1%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–04.2%
3–15.4%
3–23.5%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–02.6%
4+–13.4%
4+–22.2%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.2-07%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,72–1,30
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,542%
@2.18
Over 2,558%
@1.62
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Falkenberg to win47%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Albin Andersson to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Albin Andersson to score24%
- Wanbe Godwin Aguda to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Sandviken28% probability@4.10BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
- 2 · Sandviken28% probability@4.10NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
- 2 · Sandviken28% probability@3.95LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Falkenberg | X | 2 · Sandviken |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.78 | 3.88 | EV+ 14% 4.10 |
| LeoVegas | 1.75 | 3.80 | EV+ 10% 3.95 |
| Nordicbet | 1.78 | 3.88 | EV+ 14% 4.10 |
Odds updated 27 Oct, 11:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Falkenberg win since 26 October — the odds have shortened from 1.95 to 1.75 (−10%).
1-10 %
55 %45 %
1.95 → 1.75
X+6 %
29 %19 %
3.60 → 3.80
2+20 %
30 %20 %
3.30 → 3.95
Over 2,5-1 %
62 %52 %
1.61 → 1.60
LeoVegas · 6 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesFalkenberg 1Draw 0Sandviken 2
Goals: 7–8 (⌀ 5)
Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.
Key facts
- Falkenbergs FF are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
- Falkenbergs FF win 55% of their home matches all-time (29 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Falkenberg
Sandviken
Falkenberg (52–37)
Sandviken (43–38)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Falkenberg
Sandviken
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Falkenberg
Sandviken
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Falkenberg | Sandviken |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51 | 35 |
| xPoints | 38.7 | 37 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| Playing style | Falkenberg | Sandviken |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.6 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.55 | 0.57 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| Passes per match | 400 | 500 |
| Passes against per match | 398 | 342 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.4 | 14.2 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Falkenberg | Sandviken |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 4.2 | 4.7 |
| Corners against per match | 5.4 | 5.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.64 |
| Other | Falkenberg | Sandviken |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| The goalkeepers | Anton Andersson (Falkenberg) | Otto Lindell (Sandviken) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 44 | 57 |
| Save % | 64% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 50% | 48% |
| Claims | 131 (95%) | 103 (97%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Falkenberg spelschemaSandviken spelschema
- Oddevold – Brage30 October 2026 19:00 CET
- IFK Norrköping – Östersund31 October 2026 13:00 CET
- Norrby – IFK Värnamo31 October 2026 15:00 CET
- Nordic United – GIF Sundsvall31 October 2026 15:00 CET
- Varbergs BoIS – Ljungskile1 November 2026 13:00 CET
- Öster – Helsingborgs IF2 November 2026 19:00 CET
- Landskrona BoIS – Örebro SK2 November 2026 19:05 CET
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Falkenberg vs Sandviken according to our model?
The model gives Falkenberg a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Falkenberg 47%, draw 25%, Sandviken 28%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Falkenberg vs Sandviken?
The model expects 1.72 goals (xG) for Falkenberg and 1.30 for Sandviken, 3.02 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Falkenberg or draw (1X) 72%, Sandviken or draw (X2) 53% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.