01 · 2 legs
Safe
- IFK Norrköping to win57%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Swedish SuperettanÖstgötaporten, Norrköping9°0,1 mm10 km/h
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IFK NorrköpingPossession & high pressvs
ÖstersundPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · IFK Norrköping (57%)
IFK Norrköping vs Östersund · Swedish Superettan
1 · IFK Norrköping 57%X 21%22% Östersund · 2
57%
21%
22%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for IFK Norrköping vs Östersund (Swedish Superettan, Saturday, 31 October 2026): IFK Norrköping win 57%, draw 21%, Östersund win 22%. Expected goals (xG): IFK Norrköping 1.86, Östersund 1.06. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: IFK Norrköping or draw 78%, Östersund or draw 43%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: IFK Norrköping – Östersund
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
57% is the number that matters: IFK Norrköping rate as the deserved home favourite. The hosts lead 62 points to Östersund’s 48, and the underlying gap is similarly clear: 48.1 xPoints versus 39.5, with 1.9 xG per match against 1.3. Their 0.98 xGA narrowly beats the visitors’ 0.99. Both sides press high and want possession, but Norrköping have the stronger baseline.
Norrköping are unbeaten in their last 14 league matches; Östersund arrive unbeaten in 15. That removes any case for treating the visitors lightly, yet form does not erase the season-long chance creation gap. The head-to-head since 2024 is one match, a 1W 0D 0L edge for the hosts, but it is a small sample and weighs less than form and expected goals.
The model’s most likely single score is 1-1 at 11%, though 2-1 and 1-0 both sit at 10%. The analysis points to a narrow home win, most likely 2-1. Over 2.5 goals leans 56%, as does both teams to score, but the cleaner desk play is home win: Betsafe and Nordicbet offer 2.09, assessed EV+ with an 18% edge; LeoVegas’s 2.05 is assessed at 16%. Boring home backing pays the bills.
IFK NorrköpingForm DWWDW
League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Anton ErikssonCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
- Noel SerneliusCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.29
- Ryan NelsonRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.31
ÖstersundForm WDDDW
League ranking xG #8xGA #2xT #2xP/match #6Points #3
Key players
- Sunday AnyanwuCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.09
- Dennis WidgrenCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.40
- Daniel MiljanovicRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.24
Match prediction: IFK Norrköping – Östersund
Predicted score matrix
Östersund →
IFK Norrköping →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.7%
0–15.4%
0–23.1%
0–31.1%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–09.7%
1–111.0%
1–25.7%
1–32.0%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–09.3%
2–19.9%
2–25.3%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–05.8%
3–16.1%
3–23.2%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–04.1%
4+–14.3%
4+–22.3%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.3-16%
Expected goals
1,86–1,06
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@1.95
Over 2,556%
@1.78
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- IFK Norrköping to win57%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Christoffer Nyman to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Christoffer Nyman to score31%
- Sunday Anyanwu to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · IFK Norrköping57% probability@2.43BetsafeEV+38%reference odds
- 1 · IFK Norrköping57% probability@2.43NordicbetEV+38%reference odds
- 1 · IFK Norrköping57% probability@2.35LeoVegasEV+33%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · IFK Norrköping | X | 2 · Östersund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 38% 2.43 | 3.39 | 2.80 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 33% 2.35 | 3.35 | 2.70 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 38% 2.43 | 3.39 | 2.80 |
Odds updated 27 Oct, 11:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Östersund win since 25 October — the odds have shortened from 3.30 to 2.70 (−18%).
1+18 %
48 %38 %
2.00 → 2.35
X-3 %
32 %22 %
3.45 → 3.35
2-18 %
35 %25 %
3.30 → 2.70
Over 2,50 %
58 %48 %
1.73 → 1.73
LeoVegas · 9 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesIFK Norrköping 1Draw 0Östersund 0
Goals: 2–0 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.
Key facts
- IFK Norrköping FK are unbeaten in their last 14 league matches.
- Östersund are unbeaten in their last 15 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
IFK Norrköping
Östersund
IFK Norrköping (58–18)
Östersund (38–26)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
IFK Norrköping
Östersund
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
IFK Norrköping
Östersund
The teams in numbers
| Performance | IFK Norrköping | Östersund |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62 | 48 |
| xPoints | 48.1 | 39.5 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 0.98 | 0.99 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.4 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | IFK Norrköping | Östersund |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| xT per match | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 38 | 38 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 451 | 455 |
| Passes against per match | 317 | 345 |
| Switches of play per match | 15.5 | 17.7 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 42 |
| Set pieces | IFK Norrköping | Östersund |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.23 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 5.7 | 6.4 |
| Corners against per match | 5.1 | 3.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| Other | IFK Norrköping | Östersund |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| The goalkeepers | Theo Krantz (IFK Norrköping) | Melker Uppenberg (Östersund) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 78 | 30 |
| Save % | 83% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 68% | 31% |
| Claims | 143 (89%) | 77 (90%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: IFK Norrköping spelschemaÖstersund spelschema
- Oddevold – Brage30 October 2026 19:00 CET
- Norrby – IFK Värnamo31 October 2026 15:00 CET
- Nordic United – GIF Sundsvall31 October 2026 15:00 CET
- Falkenberg – Sandviken31 October 2026 17:00 CET
- Varbergs BoIS – Ljungskile1 November 2026 13:00 CET
- Öster – Helsingborgs IF2 November 2026 19:00 CET
- Landskrona BoIS – Örebro SK2 November 2026 19:05 CET
Frequently asked questions
Who wins IFK Norrköping vs Östersund according to our model?
The model gives IFK Norrköping a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IFK Norrköping 57%, draw 21%, Östersund 22%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in IFK Norrköping vs Östersund?
The model expects 1.86 goals (xG) for IFK Norrköping and 1.06 for Östersund, 2.92 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
IFK Norrköping or draw (1X) 78%, Östersund or draw (X2) 43% and no draw (12) 79%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.