Lausanne Sport vs Thun Prediction: Away win 42% (1 Nov 2026)

Swiss Super League1 November 2026 16:30 CETStade de la Tuilière, Lausanne8°12 km/h

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Lausanne SportPossession control

ThunLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Thun (42%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.40 (+6 %)

1 · Lausanne Sport 30%X 28%42% Thun · 2

30%

28%

42%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lausanne Sport vs Thun (Swiss Super League, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Lausanne Sport win 30%, draw 28%, Thun win 42%. Expected goals (xG): Lausanne Sport 1.30, Thun 1.62. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Lausanne Sport or draw 58%, Thun or draw 70%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Lausanne Sport – Thun

Sofia Andersson · 26 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Across four meetings since 2023, Lausanne Sport have one win, one draw and two losses against Thun. That is a visitor edge, but the sample is small and weighs less than current form and expected goals. The hosts arrive on five straight defeats; the head-to-head does not explain that run, but it sits neatly beside it. Thun hold the stronger model probability at 42%, against 30% for Lausanne and 28% for the draw.

The season numbers are not subtle. The visitors lead 10 points to 6 and xPoints 12.2 to 10.7, while their 1.6 xG per match dwarfs the hosts’ 0.85. Lausanne’s defensive xGA is better, 1.6 against 2.2, yet that does not erase the attacking gap. Possession control from the home side meets a low-defence, direct Thun approach: a matchup that can leave the ball with Lausanne but the cleaner chances with the visitors.

The analysis points to Thun, not because the league table says so but because the chance creation does. Still, the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 at 9% and 0-1 at 8%. That tension matters. The model sees Thun as the likelier winner across the full range of outcomes, but it also sees a draw as a live result. Expected goals of 1.30 and 1.62 support both teams scoring at 59%.

Over 2.5 goals gets the model’s marginal lean at 56%, so the game profile is not naturally an under call. The price changes the verdict. Under 2.5 at 2.4 is assessed as EV+ by the model at 44%, a 6% edge, available with Betsafe and LeoVegas. The cleaner angle is under 3.5 at 1.6 with LeoVegas: model probability 66%, again a 6% edge.

Lausanne Sport

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #12xGA #6xT #12xP/match #12Points #12

Key players

Kevin MouangaCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
Jamie RocheCMxG 0.03 · xT -0.01
Abdou Karim SowCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.05

Thun

Form LLWLL

League ranking xG #9xGA #12xT #7xP/match #11Points #9

Key players

Fabio FehrRWBxG 0.12 · xT 0.25
Brighton LabeauFxG 0.28 · xT 0.15
Justin RothFxG 0.03 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Lausanne Sport – Thun

Predicted score matrix

Thun →

Lausanne Sport →

0–05.7%

0–18.4%

0–27.1%

0–33.8%

0–4+2.2%

1–06.7%

1–111.7%

1–29.2%

1–35.0%

1–4+2.9%

2–04.6%

2–17.4%

2–26.0%

2–33.2%

2–4+1.9%

3–02.0%

3–13.2%

3–22.6%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.8%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,30–1,62

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@2.40EV+6%

Over 2,556%

@1.50

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Thun or draw (X2)70%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Thun or draw (X2)70%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Brighton Andy Labeau Melchior to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Brighton Andy Labeau Melchior to score24%
Sékou Koné to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.544% probability@2.40BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
Under 2.544% probability@2.40LeoVegasEV+6%reference odds
Under 2.544% probability@2.40NordicbetEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Lausanne Sport	X	2 · Thun
Betsafe	2.42	EV+ 0% 3.55	EV+ 5% 2.52
LeoVegas	2.40	EV+ 3% 3.65	EV+ 4% 2.50
Nordicbet	2.42	EV+ 0% 3.55	EV+ 5% 2.52

Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

1-4 %

40 %35 %

2.50 → 2.40

X+4 %

28 %23 %

3.50 → 3.65

2+2 %

40 %35 %

2.45 → 2.50

Over 2,5+2 %

65 %60 %

1.47 → 1.50

LeoVegas · 6 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Lausanne Sport 1Draw 1Thun 2

Goals: 4–8 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Lausanne Sport have lost 5 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Lausanne Sport

Thun

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Lausanne Sport (7–17)

Thun (19–30)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Lausanne Sport

Thun

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Lausanne Sport

Thun

The teams in numbers

Performance	Lausanne Sport	Thun
Points	6	10
xPoints	10.7	12.2
xG per match	0.85	1.6
xGA per match	1.6	2.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.39

Playing style	Lausanne Sport	Thun
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.33
Field tilt	0.47	0.46
xT per match	0.8	1.1
xTA per match	1.1	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	24	29
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.29
Entries into the box per match	9	15
Entries into the box against	14	14
Pass completion %	0.74	0.7
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.64
Passes per match	328	279
Passes against per match	366	312
Switches of play per match	36.9	25.7
Long balls per match	42	37

Set pieces	Lausanne Sport	Thun
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.09
Corners per match	4.8	5.6
Corners against per match	5.2	5.1
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.41	0.47

Other	Lausanne Sport	Thun
Throw-in control	0.73	0.7

The goalkeepers	Melvin Feyçal Mastil (Lausanne Sport)	Niklas Steffen (Thun)
Saves	40	35
Save %	71%	54%
xG prevented	40%	30%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Lausanne Sport

Fixtures, form & tips

Thun

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lausanne Sport vs Thun according to our model?

The model gives Thun a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lausanne Sport 30%, draw 28%, Thun 42%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Lausanne Sport vs Thun?

The model expects 1.30 goals (xG) for Lausanne Sport and 1.62 for Thun, 2.92 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Lausanne Sport or draw (1X) 58%, Thun or draw (X2) 70% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.