Luzern vs Sion Prediction: Away win 38% (31 Oct 2026)

Swiss Super League31 October 2026 20:30 CETSwissporarena, Luzern8°4 km/h

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LuzernCounter-attacks & crosses

SionCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Sion (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.90 (+5 %)

1 · Luzern 35%X 27%38% Sion · 2

35%

27%

38%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Luzern vs Sion (Swiss Super League, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Luzern win 35%, draw 27%, Sion win 38%. Expected goals (xG): Luzern 1.65, Sion 1.99. Most likely score: 1-1 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 70%. Double chance: Luzern or draw 62%, Sion or draw 65%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Luzern – Sion

Anna Karlsson · 26 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

1.65 against 1.99 is the tension at the centre of Luzern vs Sion: two sides built around counter attacks and crosses, yet the visitors carry the cleaner attacking projection. This should be a game of fast releases into wide areas rather than prolonged control. The model sees both teams scoring at 70% and Over 2.5 goals at 70%, so the strongest totals lean is plainly Over 2.5.

The season numbers support the visitors’ edge without making them overwhelming favourites. They have 22 points to the hosts’ 12, while expected points stand at 16.1 versus 14.8. Their underlying balance is also slightly better: 2.0 xG per match against 1.9, and 1.7 xGA against 2.0. Luzern can hurt any opponent in transition, but they concede enough chances to make Sion’s 38% win probability more persuasive than the home side’s 35%.

Head-to-head history since 2023 is a separate, more even story: seven meetings have produced two Luzern wins, three draws and two Sion wins, with 3.0 goals per meeting on average. That pattern reinforces the scoring angle, but it should not be confused with current form or the season metrics. The model’s most likely scorelines are 1-1 and 1-2, both at 9%, followed by 2-1 at 7%. My call is 1-2: the away side have the marginally stronger profile, even if this matchup has enough symmetry to keep a draw highly live.

That is why the result market is more interesting than simply backing the visitors. A draw at 3.85 with LeoVegas is assessed as EV+, with the model rating it at 27% for a 4% edge. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer 3.75, also assessed as EV+ at a 1% edge, but LeoVegas is the sharpest draw price.

Luzern

Form DLWLL

League ranking xG #3xGA #11xT #4xP/match #6Points #8

Key players

Matteo Di GiustoLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.18
Oscar Kabwit TshikombFxG 0.34 · xT 0.07
Tyron OwusuRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.17

Sion

Form WWDLW

League ranking xG #2xGA #7xT #1xP/match #5Points #3

Key players

Ali KabacalmanCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.20
Numa LavanchyRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.30
Baltazar Costa Rodrigues de OliveiraCDMxG 0.17 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: Luzern – Sion

Predicted score matrix

Sion →

Luzern →

0–02.9%

0–15.0%

0–25.2%

0–33.4%

0–4+2.7%

1–04.1%

1–18.9%

1–28.6%

1–35.7%

1–4+4.5%

2–03.6%

2–17.1%

2–27.1%

2–34.7%

2–4+3.7%

3–02.0%

3–13.9%

3–23.9%

3–32.6%

3–4+2.0%

4+–01.2%

4+–12.3%

4+–22.3%

4+–31.5%

4+–4+1.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-19%
2.1-29%
3.2-17%
4.2-27%
5.1-36%

Expected goals

1,65–1,99

Both teams to score

70%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,6

19%

218%

321%

419%

5+30%

Under 2,530%

@3.05

Over 2,570%

@1.34

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sion or draw (X2)68%
Over 1.5 goals88%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sion or draw (X2)68%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Théo Berdayes Marques to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score70%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb to score26%
Baltazar Costa Rodrigues de Oliveira to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw27% probability@3.90LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
X · Draw27% probability@3.80BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
X · Draw27% probability@3.80NordicbetEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Luzern	X	2 · Sion
Betsafe	2.62	EV+ 3% 3.80	2.25
LeoVegas	2.60	EV+ 5% 3.90	2.25
Nordicbet	2.62	EV+ 3% 3.80	2.25

Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Luzern win since 25 October — the odds have shortened from 2.90 to 2.60 (−10%).

1-10 %

36 %31 %

2.90 → 2.60

X0 %

26 %21 %

3.90 → 3.90

2+10 %

45 %40 %

2.05 → 2.25

LeoVegas · 7 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Luzern 2Draw 3Sion 2

Goals: 9–12 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Luzern

Sion

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Luzern (18–24)

Sion (24–17)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Luzern

Sion

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Luzern

Sion

The teams in numbers

Performance	Luzern	Sion
Points	12	22
xPoints	14.8	16.1
xG per match	1.9	2
xGA per match	2	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.27

Playing style	Luzern	Sion
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.33
Field tilt	0.47	0.51
xT per match	1.4	1.6
xTA per match	1.3	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	23	24
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.26
Entries into the box per match	15	17
Entries into the box against	16	15
Pass completion %	0.71	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.63	0.73
Passes per match	293	410
Passes against per match	361	327
Switches of play per match	25.2	31.4
Long balls per match	40	35

Set pieces	Luzern	Sion
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.07
Corners per match	5.7	5.7
Corners against per match	5.7	4.7
xG per corner	0.02	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.55
First touch, defensive corners %	0.39	0.42

Other	Luzern	Sion
Throw-in control	0.74	0.74

The goalkeepers	Karlo Letica (Luzern)	Anthony Racioppi (Sion)
Saves	32	29
Save %	70%	63%
xG prevented	54%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Luzern

Fixtures, form & tips

Sion

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Luzern vs Sion according to our model?

The model gives Sion a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Luzern 35%, draw 27%, Sion 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 70% and under at 30%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 70% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Luzern vs Sion?

The model expects 1.65 goals (xG) for Luzern and 1.99 for Sion, 3.64 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Luzern or draw (1X) 62%, Sion or draw (X2) 65% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.