St. Gallen vs Servette Prediction: Home win 51% (31 Oct 2026)

Swiss Super League31 October 2026 18:00 CETKybunpark, St. Gallen6°8 km/h

Läs på svenska

St. GallenPossession control

ServetteLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · St. Gallen (51%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.90 (+8 %)

1 · St. Gallen 51%X 28%22% Servette · 2

51%

28%

22%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for St. Gallen vs Servette (Swiss Super League, Saturday, 31 October 2026): St. Gallen win 51%, draw 28%, Servette win 22%. Expected goals (xG): St. Gallen 1.81, Servette 1.19. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: St. Gallen or draw 78%, Servette or draw 49%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: St. Gallen – Servette

Oscar Nilsson · 26 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

St. Gallen are the right side, but the draw is the price the market has left too loose. The model gives the hosts a 51% win chance against Servette’s 22%, yet the 28% draw probability sits close enough to make a straightforward home-win bet less appealing than it first looks.

The tactical shape supports the home lean. St. Gallen’s possession control should pin back a Servette side built around low defending and direct breaks, while the hosts also lead 1.81 to 1.19 in expected goals. Their 0.39 xG within 8s of winning the ball, versus 0.33, points to a real transition edge after regains.

Still, this is not a clean mismatch. Servette lead xPoints 18.3 to 16.3, a useful warning against overstating the home case, and both teams sit at 1.4 xGA per match, with the defensive edge marked toward the visitors. The 3W, 3D, 1L head-to-head record since 2023 favours St. Gallen, but seven matches are not enough to outweigh current process numbers.

The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 at 10% and 1-0 at 9%. That makes the draw a more natural call than the 51% home-win figure might suggest. Over 2.5 goals has the model lean at 58%, and both teams to score is also 58%, so the baseline total view is over rather than under.

Yet price changes the bet. Under 2.5 at 2.55 with LeoVegas is assessed as EV+ despite that over lean: the model rates it 42%, an 8% edge. The draw is equally strong at 3.9 with LeoVegas, rated 28% for an 8% edge; Betsafe’s 3.85 is still assessed at 7%. The sharpest angle is the draw at 3.9 with LeoVegas.

St. Gallen

Form LLWWL

League ranking xG #4xGA #4xT #5xP/match #4Points #6

Key players

Lukas DaschnerCAMxG 0.28 · xT 0.17
Tom GaalCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
Chima OkorojiCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.18

Servette

Form WWLWW

League ranking xG #7xGA #3xT #10xP/match #2Points #5

Key players

Samuel MrazFxG 0.86 · xT -0.01
Kingstone MutandwaFxG 0.76 · xT 0.04
Steve RouillerCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: St. Gallen – Servette

Predicted score matrix

Servette →

St. Gallen →

0–05.3%

0–15.6%

0–23.5%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–08.7%

1–111.1%

1–26.4%

1–32.5%

1–4+1.0%

2–08.1%

2–19.7%

2–25.8%

2–32.3%

2–4+0.9%

3–04.9%

3–15.8%

3–23.5%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.5%

4+–03.3%

4+–14.0%

4+–22.4%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-26%

Expected goals

1,81–1,19

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,542%

@2.55EV+7%

Over 2,558%

@1.46

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

St. Gallen to win51%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

St. Gallen to win51%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Aliou Badara Balde to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Aliou Badara Balde to score27%
Pedro Henrique Naressi Machado to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw28% probability@3.90LeoVegasEV+8%reference odds
Under 2.542% probability@2.55LeoVegasEV+8%reference odds
Under 3.565% probability@1.65BetsafeEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · St. Gallen	X	2 · Servette
Betsafe	1.75	EV+ 7% 3.85	3.80
LeoVegas	1.75	EV+ 8% 3.90	3.75
Nordicbet	1.75	EV+ 7% 3.85	3.80

Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

1-5 %

54 %49 %

1.83 → 1.75

X-1 %

26 %21 %

3.95 → 3.90

2+10 %

28 %23 %

3.40 → 3.75

LeoVegas · 6 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

St. Gallen 3Draw 3Servette 1

Goals: 12–8 (⌀ 2,9)

Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

St. Gallen dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 7 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

St. Gallen

Servette

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

St. Gallen (17–21)

Servette (16–14)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

St. Gallen

Servette

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

St. Gallen

Servette

The teams in numbers

Performance	St. Gallen	Servette
Points	16	16
xPoints	16.3	18.3
xG per match	1.9	1.6
xGA per match	1.4	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.39	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.2

Playing style	St. Gallen	Servette
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.58	0.43
xT per match	1.2	0.94
xTA per match	0.74	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	34	27
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.24
Entries into the box per match	19	15
Entries into the box against	13	16
Pass completion %	0.67	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.63	0.68
Passes per match	277	311
Passes against per match	304	362
Switches of play per match	19.4	20.9
Long balls per match	33	32

Set pieces	St. Gallen	Servette
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.07
Corners per match	7.1	6
Corners against per match	4.7	6.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.47
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.63

Other	St. Gallen	Servette
Throw-in control	0.7	0.71

The goalkeepers	Lawrence Ati Zigi (St. Gallen)	Edvinas Gertmonas (Servette)
Saves	28	23
Save %	60%	66%
xG prevented	42%	43%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

St. Gallen

Fixtures, form & tips

Servette

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins St. Gallen vs Servette according to our model?

The model gives St. Gallen a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: St. Gallen 51%, draw 28%, Servette 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in St. Gallen vs Servette?

The model expects 1.81 goals (xG) for St. Gallen and 1.19 for Servette, 3.00 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

St. Gallen or draw (1X) 78%, Servette or draw (X2) 49% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.