Young Boys vs FC Zürich Prediction: Home win 67% (1 Nov 2026)

Swiss Super League1 November 2026 14:00 CETStadion Wankdorf, Bern7°15 km/h

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Young BoysPossession control

FC ZürichCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Young Boys (67%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 4.05 (+32 %)

1 · Young Boys 67%X 19%14% FC Zürich · 2

67%

19%

14%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Young Boys vs FC Zürich (Swiss Super League, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Young Boys win 67%, draw 19%, FC Zürich win 14%. Expected goals (xG): Young Boys 2.40, FC Zürich 1.07. Most likely score: 2-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Young Boys or draw 86%, FC Zürich or draw 33%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Young Boys – FC Zürich

Erik Lindberg · 26 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

67% is the number that matters: Young Boys are clear home favourites, with 2.40 expected goals against FC Zürich’s 1.07. The hosts have 25 points to the visitors’ 17, lead 21.0 to 14.6 in xPoints, and pair 2.3 xG per match with a 1.2 xGA. Zürich sit at 1.4 and 1.8. That is control against counters and crosses, and Young Boys have won three straight while scoring in 14 consecutive league matches.

The model points plainly to a home win, most likely 2-1 (10%), ahead of 2-0 (9%) and 1-1 (8%). Over 2.5 goals is the natural lean at 67%, with both teams to score at 60%. Since 2023, the head-to-head is 5W 2D 0L for the hosts across 7 matches, averaging 3.4 goals; that supports the matchup pattern, but season form and expected goals do the heavier lifting.

Still, boring price discipline pays the bills. Under 2.5 is assessed EV+ at 3.95 with LeoVegas: the model rates it 33%, a 28% edge. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer 3.9, assessed at a 27% edge.

Young Boys

Form DDWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #2xP/match #1Points #2

Key players

Sandro LauperCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.14
Loris BenitoCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
Joel MonteiroLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.15

FC Zürich

Form DWDWW

League ranking xG #10xGA #8xT #8xP/match #7Points #4

Key players

Alexander HackCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.13
Bledian KrasniqiCAMxG 0.15 · xT 0.11
Lindrit KamberiCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Young Boys – FC Zürich

Predicted score matrix

FC Zürich →

Young Boys →

0–03.3%

0–13.1%

0–21.8%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.2%

1–07.2%

1–18.2%

1–24.3%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.5%

2–08.9%

2–19.6%

2–25.1%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–07.1%

3–17.7%

3–24.1%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.5%

4+–07.6%

4+–18.1%

4+–24.4%

4+–31.6%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.2-09%
3.1-18%
4.3-18%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

2,40–1,07

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,5

110%

219%

322%

419%

5+27%

Under 2,533%

@4.05EV+32%

Over 2,567%

@1.20

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Young Boys to win67%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Young Boys to win67%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Samuel Emmanuel Essende Mbongu to score43%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Samuel Emmanuel Essende Mbongu to score43%
Lindrit Kamberi to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.533% probability@4.05BetsafeEV+32%reference odds
Under 2.533% probability@4.05NordicbetEV+32%reference odds
Under 3.554% probability@2.35LeoVegasEV+27%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Young Boys	X	2 · FC Zürich
Betsafe	1.25	EV+ 14% 6.10	EV+ 12% 7.80
LeoVegas	1.26	EV+ 17% 6.25	EV+ 7% 7.50
Nordicbet	1.25	EV+ 14% 6.10	EV+ 12% 7.80

Odds updated 27 Oct, 14:36

Odds movement

10 %

76 %71 %

1.26 → 1.26

X-4 %

17 %12 %

6.50 → 6.25

2+7 %

15 %10 %

7.00 → 7.50

LeoVegas · 9 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Young Boys 5Draw 2FC Zürich 0

Goals: 17–7 (⌀ 3,4)

Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Young Boys dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 0 in 7 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.4 goals per meeting on average.
Young Boys come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Young Boys have scored in 14 consecutive league matches.
Zurich are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Young Boys

FC Zürich

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Young Boys (35–18)

FC Zürich (20–23)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Young Boys

FC Zürich

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Young Boys

FC Zürich

The teams in numbers

Performance	Young Boys	FC Zürich
Points	25	17
xPoints	21	14.6
xG per match	2.3	1.4
xGA per match	1.2	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.47	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.26

Playing style	Young Boys	FC Zürich
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.32
Field tilt	0.59	0.45
xT per match	1.5	1.1
xTA per match	0.95	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	24	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.27
Entries into the box per match	18	12
Entries into the box against	11	15
Pass completion %	0.78	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.68
Passes per match	363	290
Passes against per match	354	350
Switches of play per match	31.4	30.9
Long balls per match	40	39

Set pieces	Young Boys	FC Zürich
xG from free kicks	0.15	0.04
Corners per match	6	4.1
Corners against per match	3.5	5.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.52	0.62
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.54

Other	Young Boys	FC Zürich
Throw-in control	0.72	0.62

The goalkeepers	Marvin Keller (Young Boys)	Silas Huber (FC Zürich)
Saves	29	20
Save %	64%	61%
xG prevented	41%	44%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Young Boys

Fixtures, form & tips

FC Zürich

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Young Boys vs FC Zürich according to our model?

The model gives Young Boys a 67% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Young Boys 67%, draw 19%, FC Zürich 14%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Young Boys vs FC Zürich?

The model expects 2.40 goals (xG) for Young Boys and 1.07 for FC Zürich, 3.48 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Young Boys or draw (1X) 86%, FC Zürich or draw (X2) 33% and no draw (12) 81%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.