Cremonese vs Benevento Prediction: Home win 49% (31 Oct 2026)

Serie B31 October 2026Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona11°7 km/h

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CremonesePossession & high press

BeneventoPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Cremonese (49%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.92 (+8 %)

1 · Cremonese 49%X 25%26% Benevento · 2

49%

25%

26%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Cremonese vs Benevento (Serie B, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Cremonese win 49%, draw 25%, Benevento win 26%. Expected goals (xG): Cremonese 1.39, Benevento 1.05. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Cremonese or draw 74%, Benevento or draw 51%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Cremonese – Benevento

Erik Lindberg · 26 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

56% is the model’s rating for under 2.5 as Cremonese face Benevento Calcio, despite the visitors arriving unbeaten in their last 5 league matches. The numbers still point to a tight home-side edge: 49% Cremonese, 25% draw, 26% Benevento. Expected goals sit at 1.39 to 1.05, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, narrowly ahead of 1-0 at 12%.

That leaves an awkward split. The hosts have the model lean through possession and high press, but the visitors own the stronger season indicators: 14 points to 6, 13.5 xPoints to 8.6, 1.4 xG per match to 0.98, and 0.98 xGA to 1.1. Benevento’s control game should keep this compressed rather than turn it into an open exchange.

The practical call is 1-1, with under 2.5 the clear lean: over 2.5 is only 44%, while both teams to score is 49%. LeoVegas offers under 2.5 at 1.92, assessed as EV+ with the model at 56% and an 8% edge. Under 1.5 at 3.6 is also rated EV+ at LeoVegas, 30% and a 7% edge, but the stable play that pays the bills is under 2.5.

Cremonese

Form DDDLL

League ranking xG #15xGA #6xT #4xP/match #17Points #18

Key players

Federico BonazzoliRWxG 0.64 · xT 0.02
Fabio GerliCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
Simone PontissoCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.12

Benevento

Form WWWDW

League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #13xP/match #4Points #5

Key players

Mattia MaitaCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
Antonis SiatounisCMxG 0.31 · xT 0.16
Antonio PriscoCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Cremonese – Benevento

Predicted score matrix

Benevento →

Cremonese →

0–09.2%

0–18.8%

0–24.8%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.5%

1–011.8%

1–113.1%

1–26.7%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.4%

2–18.8%

2–24.6%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–03.9%

3–14.1%

3–22.1%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.8%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.0-09%
4.2-19%
5.0-19%

Expected goals

1,39–1,05

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.92EV+7%

Over 2,544%

@1.80

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Cremonese to win49%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Cremonese to win49%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Federico Bonazzoli to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Federico Bonazzoli to score36%
Mattia Maita to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.556% probability@1.92LeoVegasEV+8%reference odds
Under 2.556% probability@1.90BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
Under 2.556% probability@1.90NordicbetEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Cremonese	X	2 · Benevento
Betsafe	1.95	3.40	3.45
LeoVegas	1.95	3.50	3.40
Nordicbet	1.95	3.40	3.45

Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Benevento win since 24 October — the odds have shortened from 3.75 to 3.45 (−8%).

1+4 %

50 %45 %

1.88 → 1.95

X0 %

29 %24 %

3.40 → 3.40

2-8 %

28 %23 %

3.75 → 3.45

Nordicbet · 5 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Benevento Calcio are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Cremonese

Benevento

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Cremonese (6–11)

Benevento (13–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Cremonese

Benevento

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Cremonese

Benevento

The teams in numbers

Performance	Cremonese	Benevento
Points	6	14
xPoints	8.6	13.5
xG per match	0.98	1.4
xGA per match	1.1	0.98
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.11	0.38
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.05

Playing style	Cremonese	Benevento
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.25
Field tilt	0.64	0.53
xT per match	1.1	0.92
xTA per match	0.68	0.81
Won balls, offensive half	28	21
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.25
Entries into the box per match	12	13
Entries into the box against	8	10
Pass completion %	0.8	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.75
Passes per match	433	352
Passes against per match	364	360
Switches of play per match	29.1	29.6
Long balls per match	32	31

Set pieces	Cremonese	Benevento
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.02
Corners per match	4.3	5.5
Corners against per match	4	5.5
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.47	0.61

Other	Cremonese	Benevento
Throw-in control	0.75	0.72

The goalkeepers	Federico Agazzi (Cremonese)	Gianmarco Vannucchi (Benevento)
Saves	10	15
Save %	63%	68%
xG prevented	26%	44%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Cremonese

Fixtures, form & tips

Benevento

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Cremonese spelschema Benevento spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Cremonese vs Benevento according to our model?

The model gives Cremonese a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cremonese 49%, draw 25%, Benevento 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Cremonese vs Benevento?

The model expects 1.39 goals (xG) for Cremonese and 1.05 for Benevento, 2.43 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Cremonese or draw (1X) 74%, Benevento or draw (X2) 51% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.