Südtirol vs Cesena Prediction: Home win 36% (31 Oct 2026)

Serie B31 October 2026Stadio Druso, Bolzano10°5 km/h

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SüdtirolCounter-attacks & crosses

CesenaLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Südtirol (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Cesena @ 3.25 (+14 %)

1 · Südtirol 36%X 29%35% Cesena · 2

36%

29%

35%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Südtirol vs Cesena (Serie B, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Südtirol win 36%, draw 29%, Cesena win 35%. Expected goals (xG): Südtirol 1.38, Cesena 1.29. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Südtirol or draw 65%, Cesena or draw 64%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Südtirol – Cesena

Sofia Andersson · 26 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Since 2023, Südtirol and Cesena have met four times: 0W, 2D, 2L for the hosts. That is an uncomfortable historical pattern, but the sample is small and weighs less than current form and expected-goals data. It does, however, underline how little separation there is in this fixture.

The points table says 13 versus 8, an edge to the home side. The underlying table pushes back: xPoints are 10.0 against 10.6, while xG per match is 0.86 against 0.93 in the visitors’ favour. The hosts have the cleaner defensive figure, conceding 1.2 xGA per match to 1.3. That is why the model is tight rather than sentimental: 36% home win, 29% draw, 35% away win. Its nominal lean is home, but the numbers do not support treating that as a comfortable position.

This is a clash of routes rather than control. The hosts profile through counter-attacks and crosses; the visitors sit low and play direct. Both teams to score lands at 55%, yet the score distribution is headed by 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 and 0-1 at 9% each. My most likely score is 1-1. Under 2.5 is the marginal match read, although the model’s over 2.5 number sits exactly at 50%—hardly a market to force.

The colder angle is Cesena on the away line, not because the visitors are clearly superior, but because 35% is too high for the prices offered. Betsafe and Nordicbet quote 3.25, assessed as a 14% edge; LeoVegas has 3.2, assessed as a 12% edge. The away win at 3.25 is the price that does the talking.

Südtirol

Form DWDLD

League ranking xG #19xGA #11xT #19xP/match #15Points #7

Key players

Andrea GiorginiCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
Simone TronchinCAMxG 0.04 · xT 0.03
Fabio RispoliCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.05

Cesena

Form DDLDL

League ranking xG #16xGA #14xT #18xP/match #12Points #15

Key players

Cristian ShpendiFxG 0.36 · xT 0.06
Dimitri BisoliRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.08
Antonio FioriLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Südtirol – Cesena

Predicted score matrix

Cesena →

Südtirol →

0–07.3%

0–18.5%

0–25.7%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.1%

1–09.2%

1–112.7%

1–27.9%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.6%

2–18.5%

2–25.5%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.0%

3–03.0%

3–13.9%

3–22.5%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.4%

4+–11.8%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-09%
3.0-19%
4.2-19%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,38–1,29

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@1.73

Over 2,550%

@2.02EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Südtirol or draw (1X)66%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Südtirol or draw (1X)66%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Lorenzo Anghelè to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Lorenzo Anghelè to score30%
Simone Tronchin to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Cesena35% probability@3.25BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
2 · Cesena35% probability@3.25NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
2 · Cesena35% probability@3.20LeoVegasEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Südtirol	X	2 · Cesena
Betsafe	2.12	3.15	EV+ 14% 3.25
LeoVegas	2.12	3.25	EV+ 12% 3.20
Nordicbet	2.12	3.15	EV+ 14% 3.25

Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

10 %

46 %41 %

2.12 → 2.12

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.25 → 3.25

20 %

31 %26 %

3.20 → 3.20

LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Südtirol 0Draw 2Cesena 2

Goals: 2–4 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Südtirol

Cesena

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Südtirol (10–7)

Cesena (8–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Südtirol

Cesena

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Südtirol

Cesena

The teams in numbers

Performance	Südtirol	Cesena
Points	13	8
xPoints	10	10.6
xG per match	0.86	0.93
xGA per match	1.2	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.21

Playing style	Südtirol	Cesena
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.39	0.38
xT per match	0.54	0.59
xTA per match	0.92	0.89
Won balls, offensive half	17	21
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.19
Entries into the box per match	6	8
Entries into the box against	12	14
Pass completion %	0.81	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.68
Passes per match	406	323
Passes against per match	366	444
Switches of play per match	22.5	24.3
Long balls per match	28	32

Set pieces	Südtirol	Cesena
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.05
Corners per match	2.6	4
Corners against per match	6.2	6.2
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.29	0.47
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.65

Other	Südtirol	Cesena
Throw-in control	0.71	0.77

The goalkeepers	Alessandro Plizzari (Südtirol)	Alessandro Siano (Cesena)
Saves	27	27
Save %	79%	71%
xG prevented	57%	58%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Südtirol

Fixtures, form & tips

Cesena

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Südtirol spelschema Cesena spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Südtirol vs Cesena according to our model?

The model gives Südtirol a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Südtirol 36%, draw 29%, Cesena 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Südtirol vs Cesena?

The model expects 1.38 goals (xG) for Südtirol and 1.29 for Cesena, 2.67 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Südtirol or draw (1X) 65%, Cesena or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.