01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Palermo to win74%
- Over 1.5 goals87%
Serie BStadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo16°2,7 mm6 km/h
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PalermoCounter-attacks & crossesvs
VicenzaCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Palermo (74%)
Palermo vs Vicenza · Serie B
1 · Palermo 74%X 15%11% Vicenza · 2
74%
15%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Palermo vs Vicenza (Serie B, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Palermo win 74%, draw 15%, Vicenza win 11%. Expected goals (xG): Palermo 2.67, Vicenza 0.85. Most likely score: 2-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Palermo or draw 89%, Vicenza or draw 26%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Palermo – Vicenza
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Palermo are the right favourite, but the market still looks too cautious: the model makes the hosts 74% to win, against 15% for the draw and 11% for Vicenza. That is not a marginal lean. It points firmly to a home win, with 2-0 the most likely scoreline at 11%.
Four straight wins have put Palermo’s form in plain sight, yet the underlying gap is just as persuasive. They hold 22 points to the visitors’ 9, while xPoints read 14.7 to 10.2. The hosts also produce 2.1 xG per match versus 1.3, and concede 1.2 xGA against 1.4. This is not merely a hot streak carrying the case.
Palermo have scored in 9 consecutive league matches and win 63% of their home matches across 43 played since 2023. Vicenza’s counter-attack and crossing profile mirrors the home side’s approach, so there may be phases where the visitors find territory. Still, the model gives them only 0.85 expected goals, against 2.67 for the hosts. A clean sheet is very much live.
The 14.7°C temperature and expected 6.9 mm of rain are a slight drag on finishing and crossing quality, usually suppressing goals rather than inflating them. That effect is already baked into the model’s numbers. Even so, Over 2.5 goals rates 68%, while both teams to score sits at 53%. The over is the lean, though 2-0 fits the numbers better than an open contest.
Palermo to win is the standout assessment: LeoVegas offer 1.571, with the model’s 74% rating indicating a 16% edge. Betsafe and Nordicbet are both 1.55, assessed as a 15% edge. Back the home win; the sharper add-on is Palermo to win with 2-0 as the scoreline.
PalermoForm DWWWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #10xT #3xP/match #2Points #1
Key players
- Filippo RanocchiaCDMxG 0.11 · xT 0.22
- Pietro CeccaroniCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
- Mattia BaniCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.08
VicenzaForm DLLDW
League ranking xG #9xGA #15xT #8xP/match #14Points #14
Key players
- Gabriele MonciniFxG 0.46 · xT 0.03
- Tommaso CorazzaLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.21
- Thomas SandonCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.20
Match prediction: Palermo – Vicenza
Predicted score matrix
Vicenza →
Palermo →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.2%
0–12.3%
0–21.1%
0–30.3%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–07.7%
1–16.9%
1–22.9%
1–30.8%
1–4+0.2%
2
2–010.6%
2–19.0%
2–23.8%
2–31.1%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–09.4%
3–18.0%
3–23.4%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–011.9%
4+–110.1%
4+–24.3%
4+–31.2%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.3-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.3-18%
- 5.1-08%
Expected goals
2,67–0,85
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,50
110%
219%
322%
419%
5+28%
Under 2,532%
@2.35
Over 2,568%
@1.52EV+4%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Palermo to win74%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Joel Julius Ilmari Pohjanpalo to score37%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Joel Julius Ilmari Pohjanpalo to score37%
- Marco Carraro to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Palermo74% probability@1.57LeoVegasEV+17%reference odds
- 1 · Palermo74% probability@1.55BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
- 1 · Palermo74% probability@1.55NordicbetEV+15%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Palermo | X | 2 · Vicenza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 15% 1.55 | 4.05 | 4.90 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 17% 1.57 | 4.10 | 4.90 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 15% 1.55 | 4.05 | 4.90 |
Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
10 %
61 %56 %
1.57 → 1.57
X0 %
25 %20 %
4.10 → 4.10
2+2 %
21 %16 %
4.80 → 4.90
LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Palermo come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- Palermo have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
- Palermo win 63% of their home matches all-time (43 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Palermo
Vicenza
Palermo (18–8)
Vicenza (11–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Palermo
Vicenza
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Palermo
Vicenza
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Palermo | Vicenza |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 22 | 9 |
| xPoints | 14.7 | 10.2 |
| xG per match | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Palermo | Vicenza |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.92 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 360 | 305 |
| Passes against per match | 363 | 365 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.7 | 25.1 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Palermo | Vicenza |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 6 |
| Corners against per match | 5.7 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| Other | Palermo | Vicenza |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Mattia Perin (Palermo) | Riccardo Gagno (Vicenza) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 39 |
| Save % | 78% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 53% | 46% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Palermo spelschemaVicenza spelschema
- Sampdoria – Virtus Entella31 October 2026
- Cremonese – Benevento31 October 2026
- Catanzaro – Padova31 October 2026
- Modena – Mantova31 October 2026
- Südtirol – Cesena31 October 2026
- Arezzo – Ascoli1 November 2026
- Hellas Verona – Carrarese1 November 2026
- Avellino – Pisa1 November 2026
- Empoli – Juve Stabia1 November 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Palermo vs Vicenza according to our model?
The model gives Palermo a 74% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Palermo 74%, draw 15%, Vicenza 11%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Palermo vs Vicenza?
The model expects 2.67 goals (xG) for Palermo and 0.85 for Vicenza, 3.52 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Palermo or draw (1X) 89%, Vicenza or draw (X2) 26% and no draw (12) 85%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.