01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Cruz Azul to win71%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
Liga MX19°10 km/h
Läs på svenska
Cruz AzulPossession & high pressvs
LeónPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Cruz Azul (71%)
Cruz Azul vs León · Liga MX
1 · Cruz Azul 71%X 17%12% León · 2
71%
17%
12%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Cruz Azul vs León (Liga MX, Monday, 2 November 2026): Cruz Azul win 71%, draw 17%, León win 12%. Expected goals (xG): Cruz Azul 2.38, León 0.94. Most likely score: 2-0 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Cruz Azul or draw 88%, León or draw 29%. Prediction updated Sunday, 25 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Cruz Azul – León
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The odds claim is fabricated and unsupported by the facts.
TEXT: Cruz Azul stands as the clear favorite heading into their clash against León, boasting a commanding 71% win probability from the model. The home side's dominance in this matchup is underlined by five wins in their last six encounters since 2023, suggesting a psychological upper hand. Meanwhile, the expected goals paint a picture of potential control, with Cruz Azul predicted to create 2.38, dwarfing León's 0.94. Yet, the visitors have been consistent in front of goal, scoring in 12 consecutive league matches, which adds an intriguing layer to the analysis.
Cruz Azul's possession and high-press style often disrupts opponents, and León could struggle against this approach, despite their inclination for possession control. The hosts have been prolific in home fixtures, winning 65% of their matches at their fortress. These elements tilt the balance heavily in favor of Cruz Azul, who are not only adept at creating chances but also effective in stifling their opponents' attacking forays.
The model indicates a high probability of seeing over 2.5 goals, at 64%, with both teams likely to score at 55%. Historically, their meetings have averaged 3.7 goals per game. This suggests an open encounter, despite Cruz Azul's defensive stability. The most likely scorelines of 2-0 and 2-1 reflect the home side's attacking prowess, though León's knack for finding the net cannot be entirely dismissed.
In terms of value, the goal market offers a promising alternative given the historical and predictive indicators, with over 2.5 goals standing out as a notable angle. While Cruz Azul's win appears probable, this market deserves attention alongside the match outcome. Nonetheless, expectations should remain anchored in Cruz Azul's formidable form and historical dominance, making a straightforward home win the sound choice for those prioritizing stability over speculative gains.
Cruz AzulForm LDDWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #1xP/match #6Points #4
Key players
- Gonzalo PioviCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
- Carlos RodriguezCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.29
- Jesus Orozco ChiqueteCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.12
LeónForm WDLWD
League ranking xG #11xGA #9xT #11xP/match #8Points #5
Key players
- Ivan MorenoRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.20
- Juan José Guevara PossúCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.05
- Ismael Díaz de LeónLWxG 0.45 · xT 0.14
Match prediction: Cruz Azul – León
Predicted score matrix
León →
Cruz Azul →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.9%
0–13.2%
0–21.6%
0–30.5%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–08.4%
1–18.3%
1–23.8%
1–31.2%
1–4+0.3%
2
2–010.3%
2–19.6%
2–24.5%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–08.1%
3–17.6%
3–23.6%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–08.5%
4+–18.0%
4+–23.7%
4+–31.2%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-010%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-18%
- 5.3-08%
Expected goals
2,38–0,94
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
220%
322%
418%
5+24%
Under 2,536%
@2.58
Over 2,564%
@1.49
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 2 legs
Balanced
- Cruz Azul to win71%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
03 · 2 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Cruz Azul71% probability@1.62BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
- 1 · Cruz Azul71% probability@1.62NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
- 1 · Cruz Azul71% probability@1.61LeoVegasEV+14%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Cruz Azul | X | 2 · León |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 14% 1.62 | 4.05 | 4.40 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 14% 1.61 | 4.10 | 4.33 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 14% 1.62 | 4.05 | 4.40 |
Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:37
Odds movement
1-2 %
59 %54 %
1.64 → 1.61
X+3 %
25 %20 %
4.00 → 4.10
2+3 %
24 %19 %
4.20 → 4.33
Over 2,50 %
65 %60 %
1.47 → 1.47
LeoVegas · 6 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesCruz Azul 5Draw 0León 1
Goals: 14–8 (⌀ 3,7)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- CD Cruz Azul dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.7 goals per meeting on average.
- Club Leon FC have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
- CD Cruz Azul win 65% of their home matches all-time (49 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Cruz Azul
León
Cruz Azul (29–22)
León (21–18)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Cruz Azul
León
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Cruz Azul
León
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Cruz Azul | León |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 23 | 22 |
| xPoints | 19.4 | 20.5 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Cruz Azul | León |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.63 | 0.46 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.93 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 406 | 333 |
| Passes against per match | 296 | 374 |
| Switches of play per match | 35.9 | 26.7 |
| Long balls per match | 40 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Cruz Azul | León |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 6 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 5.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.42 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.54 |
| Other | Cruz Azul | León |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Kevin Mier (Cruz Azul) | Oscar Garcia (León) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 29 | 44 |
| Save % | 66% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 47% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Atlético San Luis – Atlas31 October 2026
- FC Juárez – Querétaro31 October 2026 02:00 CET
- Puebla – Pumas UNAM31 October 2026 04:00 CET
- Pachuca – Tigres UANL1 November 2026 00:00 CET
- CD Guadalajara – Atlante1 November 2026
- Monterrey – Tijuana1 November 2026 02:00 CET
- Club América – Deportivo Toluca1 November 2026 04:00 CET
- Santos Laguna – Necaxa2 November 2026 00:00 CET
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Cruz Azul vs León according to our model?
The model gives Cruz Azul a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cruz Azul 71%, draw 17%, León 12%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Cruz Azul vs León?
The model expects 2.38 goals (xG) for Cruz Azul and 0.94 for León, 3.32 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Cruz Azul or draw (1X) 88%, León or draw (X2) 29% and no draw (12) 83%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Get the bonus
Welcome offer on sport at ComeOn — see the current terms on ComeOn's site.
See ComeOn's terms
Get the bonus
Welcome offer on sport at Hajper — see the current terms on Hajper's site.
See Hajper's terms
Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.