Monterrey vs Tijuana Prediction: Home win 52% (1 Nov 2026)

Liga MX1 November 2026 02:00 CETEstadio BBVA, Monterrey25°0,3 mm11 km/h

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MonterreyPossession control

TijuanaLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Monterrey (52%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 5.40 (+29 %)

1 · Monterrey 52%X 27%20% Tijuana · 2

52%

27%

20%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Monterrey vs Tijuana (Liga MX, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Monterrey win 52%, draw 27%, Tijuana win 20%. Expected goals (xG): Monterrey 1.80, Tijuana 0.93. Most likely score: 1-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Monterrey or draw 80%, Tijuana or draw 48%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Monterrey – Tijuana

Marcus Johansson · 24 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Monterrey's 57% home win rate suggests strength on familiar turf, yet the head-to-head numbers since 2023 reveal a surprising twist: not a single win against Tijuana in four tries. That small sample weighs less than overall form and expected goals, but it highlights a potential stumbling block. Monterrey's control-oriented play should dominate possession, clashing with Tijuana's low block and direct countering style.

The odds lean towards the hosts with a 52% win probability, supported by a significantly higher expected goals tally at 1.80 compared to Tijuana's 0.93. Both teams face off nearly equal in xG per match at 1.6, but Monterrey's defensive solidity gives them an edge, conceding fewer xGA. A calculated 1-0 or 2-0 home victory is conceivable, each assigned an 11% probability, illustrating the model's slight nod to Monterrey.

Although over 2.5 goals is a tight 51% prospect, the clash of styles and historical underperformance against Tijuana temper expectations. A narrow Monterrey win with limited goals seems the prudent play, aligning with model suggestions and odds alike.

Monterrey

Form WLDWW

League ranking xG #6xGA #2xT #6xP/match #4Points #7

Key players

Victor GuzmanCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.04
Lucas OcamposRWxG 0.57 · xT 0.18
Oliver TorresCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.32

Tijuana

Form DLDDD

League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #7xP/match #1Points #10

Key players

Alejandro GomezCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.15
Gilberto MoraCAMxG 1.00 · xT 0.20
Ivan TonaCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Monterrey – Tijuana

Predicted score matrix

Tijuana →

Monterrey →

0–06.8%

0–15.7%

0–22.8%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.2%

1–011.4%

1–111.2%

1–25.1%

1–31.6%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.6%

2–19.8%

2–24.6%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–06.4%

3–15.9%

3–22.7%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.2%

4+–04.3%

4+–14.0%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-011%
2.1-111%
3.2-011%
4.2-110%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,80–0,93

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@2.62EV+27%

Over 2,551%

@1.48

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Monterrey to win52%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Monterrey to win52%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Hugo Jean-Marc Cuypers to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Hugo Jean-Marc Cuypers to score29%
César Garza Cantú to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.524% probability@5.40BetsafeEV+29%reference odds
Under 1.524% probability@5.40NordicbetEV+29%reference odds
Under 2.549% probability@2.62BetsafeEV+27%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Monterrey	X	2 · Tijuana
Betsafe	1.45	EV+ 25% 4.55	EV+ 18% 5.90
LeoVegas	1.53	EV+ 15% 4.20	EV+ 4% 5.20
Nordicbet	1.45	EV+ 25% 4.55	EV+ 18% 5.90

Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

63 %58 %

1.50 → 1.53

X0 %

24 %19 %

4.20 → 4.20

2-1 %

20 %15 %

5.25 → 5.20

Over 2,50 %

65 %60 %

1.48 → 1.48

LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Monterrey 0Draw 3Tijuana 1

Goals: 7–8 (⌀ 3,8)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

Key facts

CF Monterrey win 57% of their home matches all-time (68 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Monterrey

Tijuana

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Monterrey (23–17)

Tijuana (17–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Monterrey

Tijuana

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Monterrey

Tijuana

The teams in numbers

Performance	Monterrey	Tijuana
Points	20	17
xPoints	19.1	20.6
xG per match	1.6	1.6
xGA per match	1.1	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.35	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.24

Playing style	Monterrey	Tijuana
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.29
Field tilt	0.59	0.33
xT per match	1.1	1.1
xTA per match	0.86	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	27	22
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.21
Entries into the box per match	13	11
Entries into the box against	10	14
Pass completion %	0.78	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.71
Passes per match	408	301
Passes against per match	303	407
Switches of play per match	37.5	33.2
Long balls per match	43	41

Set pieces	Monterrey	Tijuana
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.04
Corners per match	6.2	4.8
Corners against per match	3.4	7.4
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.53	0.55
First touch, defensive corners %	0.66	0.57

Other	Monterrey	Tijuana
Throw-in control	0.69	0.73

The goalkeepers	Esteban Andrada (Monterrey)	Antonio Rodriguez (Tijuana)
Saves	19	46
Save %	73%	74%
xG prevented	31%	48%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Monterrey

Fixtures, form & tips

Tijuana

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Monterrey vs Tijuana according to our model?

The model gives Monterrey a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Monterrey 52%, draw 27%, Tijuana 20%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Monterrey vs Tijuana?

The model expects 1.80 goals (xG) for Monterrey and 0.93 for Tijuana, 2.73 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Monterrey or draw (1X) 80%, Tijuana or draw (X2) 48% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.