Liga MXEstadio Hidalgo, Pachuca15°0,3 mm11 km/h

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    PachucaPachucaPossession control
    vs
    Tigres UANLTigres UANLPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Pachuca (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.45 (+1 %)

    Pachuca vs Tigres UANL · Liga MX

    1 · Pachuca 37%X 29%34% Tigres UANL · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Pachuca vs Tigres UANL (Liga MX, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Pachuca win 37%, draw 29%, Tigres UANL win 34%. Expected goals (xG): Pachuca 1.51, Tigres UANL 1.31. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Pachuca or draw 66%, Tigres UANL or draw 63%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Pachuca – Tigres UANL

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    37% is the key number: the model points narrowly to Pachuca over Tigres UANL, 37% to 34%, with the draw at 29%. The hosts have 16 points to the visitors’ 15, though Tigres lead in xPoints, 16.9 to 14.8, xG per match, 1.4 to 1.2, and xGA, 1.5 to 1.8. The head-to-head since 2023 is 1W, 1D, 2L for Pachuca across four matches. That sample is small and weighs less than form and expected goals.

    The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%; 2-1 and 1-0 each sit at 9%. Pachuca’s possession control meets Tigres’ possession and high press, a matchup that should keep both sides engaged without demanding chaos. Expected goals are 1.51 and 1.31, and the lean is over 2.5 goals at 54%, with both teams to score at 57%. Rain of 2.4 mm at 14.7°C should suppress goals slightly, already baked into the model’s numbers.

    A stable call is Pachuca or draw, with 1-1 the likeliest landing spot. But the sharpest price assessment is Tigres away at 3.0 with LeoVegas: the model’s 34% rate implies a 2% EV+ edge.

    PachucaPachuca
    Form LDLLW
    League ranking xG #13xGA #17xT #5xP/match #17Points #13
    Key players
    • Oussama IdrissiLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.23
    • Salomon RondonFxG 0.56 · xT 0.03
    • Eduardo BauermannCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.04
    Tigres UANLTigres UANL
    Form WWDLD
    League ranking xG #9xGA #13xT #13xP/match #15Points #15
    Key players
    • Juan BrunettaCAMxG 0.51 · xT 0.21
    • Fernando GorriaranCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.10
    • Diego LainezRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.16

    Match prediction: Pachuca – Tigres UANL

    Predicted score matrix

    Tigres UANL →
    Pachuca →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.3%
    0–17.4%
    0–25.1%
    0–32.2%
    0–4+1.0%
    1
    1–08.7%
    1–112.1%
    1–27.7%
    1–33.4%
    1–4+1.5%
    2
    2–06.8%
    2–18.9%
    2–25.8%
    2–32.5%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–03.4%
    3–14.5%
    3–22.9%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–01.8%
    4+–12.4%
    4+–21.6%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.1-28%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,51–1,31
    Both teams to score
    57%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,546%
    @2.05
    Over 2,554%
    @1.72

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Pachuca or draw (1X)68%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.90

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Pachuca or draw (1X)68%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • José Salomón Rondón Giménez to score20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score57%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Juan Francisco Brunetta to score24%
    • Christian Hernando Rivera Cuéllar to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw29% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
    • X · Draw29% probability@3.45LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds
    • X · Draw29% probability@3.45NordicbetEV+1%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · PachucaX2 · Tigres UANL
    Betsafe2.22
    EV+ 1%
    3.45
    EV+ 0%
    2.95
    LeoVegas2.25
    EV+ 1%
    3.45    		2.80
    Nordicbet2.22
    EV+ 1%
    3.45
    EV+ 0%
    2.95

    Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:36

    Odds movement

    1+3 %
    44 %39 %

    2.18 → 2.25

    X+1 %
    29 %24 %

    3.40 → 3.45

    2-7 %
    34 %29 %

    3.00 → 2.80

    Over 2,50 %
    57 %52 %

    1.70 → 1.70

    LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Pachuca 1Draw 1Tigres UANL 2
    Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 2,2)

    Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Pachuca
    Tigres UANL
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Pachuca (22–19)
    Tigres UANL (15–19)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Pachuca
    Christian Rivera: 216 passningar, xT 0.28RiveraEduardo Bauermann: 147 passningar, xT 0.15BauermannSergio Barreto: 132 passningar, xT 0.2BarretoOussama Idrissi: 126 passningar, xT 0.66IdrissiRodolfo Pizarro: 125 passningar, xT 0.52PizarroFrancisco Venegas: 121 passningar, xT 0.53VenegasCarlos Moreno: 119 passningar, xT 0.4MorenoAlan Bautista: 103 passningar, xT 0.5BautistaJorge Berlanga: 84 passningar, xT 0.44BerlangaJavier Nicolás Vallejo: 78 passningar, xT 0.31VallejoSebastian Santos: 59 passningar, xT 0.06Santos
    Tigres UANL
    Alan Javier Franco: 226 passningar, xT 0.45FrancoRafael Guerrero: 192 passningar, xT 0.05GuerreroFernando Gorriaran: 184 passningar, xT 0.79GorriaranMauro Lainez: 182 passningar, xT 0.32LainezNahuel Guzman: 120 passningar, xT 0.17GuzmanJuan Brunetta: 116 passningar, xT 0.44BrunettaDiego Lainez: 114 passningar, xT 0.76LainezCésar Nahuel Araújo Vilches: 109 passningar, xT 0VilchesDiego Alexander Sánchez Guevara: 96 passningar, xT 0.31GuevaraJesus Garza: 81 passningar, xT 0.23GarzaJoaquim Henrique Pereira Silva: 63 passningar, xT 0.09Silva
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Pachuca
    Christian Rivera: 216 passningar, xT 0.28RiveraEduardo Bauermann: 147 passningar, xT 0.15BauermannSergio Barreto: 132 passningar, xT 0.2BarretoOussama Idrissi: 126 passningar, xT 0.66IdrissiRodolfo Pizarro: 125 passningar, xT 0.52PizarroFrancisco Venegas: 121 passningar, xT 0.53VenegasCarlos Moreno: 119 passningar, xT 0.4MorenoAlan Bautista: 103 passningar, xT 0.5BautistaJorge Berlanga: 84 passningar, xT 0.44BerlangaJavier Nicolás Vallejo: 78 passningar, xT 0.31VallejoSebastian Santos: 59 passningar, xT 0.06Santos
    Tigres UANL
    Alan Javier Franco: 226 passningar, xT 0.45FrancoRafael Guerrero: 192 passningar, xT 0.05GuerreroFernando Gorriaran: 184 passningar, xT 0.79GorriaranMauro Lainez: 182 passningar, xT 0.32LainezNahuel Guzman: 120 passningar, xT 0.17GuzmanJuan Brunetta: 116 passningar, xT 0.44BrunettaDiego Lainez: 114 passningar, xT 0.76LainezCésar Nahuel Araújo Vilches: 109 passningar, xT 0VilchesDiego Alexander Sánchez Guevara: 96 passningar, xT 0.31GuevaraJesus Garza: 81 passningar, xT 0.23GarzaJoaquim Henrique Pereira Silva: 63 passningar, xT 0.09Silva

    The teams in numbers

    PerformancePachucaTigres UANL
    Points1615
    xPoints14.816.9
    xG per match1.21.4
    xGA per match1.81.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.280.2
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.210.27
    Playing stylePachucaTigres UANL
    Build-up efficiency0.320.32
    Field tilt0.490.5
    xT per match1.20.98
    xTA per match1.11
    Won balls, offensive half2729
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.260.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.210.26
    Entries into the box per match1213
    Entries into the box against1212
    Pass completion %0.740.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.7
    Passes per match315351
    Passes against per match371331
    Switches of play per match32.226.4
    Long balls per match4431
    Set piecesPachucaTigres UANL
    xG from free kicks0.080.11
    Corners per match4.96.7
    Corners against per match4.64.4
    xG per corner0.030.02
    xGA per corner against0.010.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.510.38
    First touch, defensive corners %0.60.52
    OtherPachucaTigres UANL
    Throw-in control0.670.68
    The goalkeepersCarlos Moreno (Pachuca)Nahuel Guzman (Tigres UANL)
    Saves4845
    Save %72%73%
    xG prevented32%50%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Pachuca
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Tigres UANL
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Pachuca vs Tigres UANL according to our model?

    The model gives Pachuca a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pachuca 37%, draw 29%, Tigres UANL 34%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Pachuca vs Tigres UANL?

    The model expects 1.51 goals (xG) for Pachuca and 1.31 for Tigres UANL, 2.82 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Pachuca or draw (1X) 66%, Tigres UANL or draw (X2) 63% and no draw (12) 71%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.