01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Club América or draw (1X)72%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Liga MXEstadio Azteca, Mexico City19°11 km/h
Läs på svenska
Club AméricaPossession & high pressvs
Deportivo TolucaPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Club América (45%)
Club América vs Deportivo Toluca · Liga MX
1 · Club América 45%X 26%29% Deportivo Toluca · 2
45%
26%
29%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Club América vs Deportivo Toluca (Liga MX, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Club América win 45%, draw 26%, Deportivo Toluca win 29%. Expected goals (xG): Club América 1.82, Deportivo Toluca 1.34. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Club América or draw 71%, Deportivo Toluca or draw 55%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.
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Analysis: Club América – Deportivo Toluca
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Club América and Deportivo Toluca have met eight times since 2023, with América holding the edge with four wins to Toluca's three, plus one draw. Yet this head-to-head sample is small and less significant than the current form and expected goals. Both teams boast impressive scoring streaks: América has found the net in their last 14 league outings, while Toluca has done so in their last nine. This suggests we can expect both teams to score, aligning with the model's 62% probability for this outcome.
América's unbeaten streak in their last five league matches underscores their current dominance, significantly bolstered by their robust home record. They've won 64% of their home matches, an intimidating statistic for any visiting team. Yet, it's notable that despite having more points, América's expected points tally lagged slightly behind Toluca, hinting at a potential vulnerability despite their glossier record. This is where the tension lies: the apparent strength of América's results versus the underlying numbers.
Looking at expected goals, Toluca actually edges América with 2.0 xG per match compared to América's 1.9, suggesting Toluca can be potent when given opportunities. However, América’s high press and possession style could disrupt Toluca’s possession control, decreasing the visitors' efficiency. The model's numbers point towards a likely scoreline of 1-1 or 2-1, indicating a tight match with a slight edge to the hosts.
While América is the bookies' favorite with a 45% win probability, the over 2.5 goals market at 61% aligns well with both teams' scoring patterns.
Club AméricaForm DWDWW
League ranking xG #2xGA #4xT #8xP/match #2Points #1
Key players
- Alex ZendejasRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.19
- Miguel VazquezCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.08
- Kevin AlvarezLWBxG 0.17 · xT 0.27
Deportivo TolucaForm LDLDD
League ranking xG #1xGA #3xT #4xP/match #3Points #4
Key players
- Alexis VegaLWxG 0.34 · xT 0.19
- Hélio Júnio Nunes de CastroRWxG 0.35 · xT 0.16
- Federico PereiraCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.12
Match prediction: Club América – Deportivo Toluca
Predicted score matrix
Deportivo Toluca →
Club América →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.5%
0–15.4%
0–23.8%
0–31.7%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–07.4%
1–110.6%
1–27.0%
1–33.1%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–07.0%
2–19.4%
2–26.3%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–04.2%
3–15.7%
3–23.8%
3–31.7%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–02.9%
4+–13.9%
4+–22.6%
4+–31.2%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-07%
- 4.2-07%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,82–1,34
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+21%
Under 2,539%
@2.68EV+4%
Over 2,561%
@1.45
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Club América or draw (1X)72%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Henry Josué Martín Mex to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Henry Josué Martín Mex to score30%
- Franco Agustín Romero to be booked26%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Club América45% probability@2.62BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
- 1 · Club América45% probability@2.62NordicbetEV+17%reference odds
- 1 · Club América45% probability@2.38LeoVegasEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Club América | X | 2 · Deportivo Toluca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 17% 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.35 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 6% 2.38 | 3.65 | 2.55 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 17% 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.35 |
Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1+1 %
41 %36 %
2.35 → 2.38
X-1 %
28 %23 %
3.70 → 3.65
20 %
39 %34 %
2.55 → 2.55
Over 2,50 %
66 %61 %
1.45 → 1.45
LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesClub América 4Draw 1Deportivo Toluca 3
Goals: 9–9 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- CF America are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
- CF America have scored in 14 consecutive league matches.
- Deportivo Toluca have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
- CF America win 64% of their home matches all-time (47 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Club América
Deportivo Toluca
Club América (32–16)
Deportivo Toluca (28–18)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Club América
Deportivo Toluca
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Club América
Deportivo Toluca
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Club América | Deportivo Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 27 | 22 |
| xPoints | 20.3 | 20.7 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 2 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Club América | Deportivo Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.94 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 368 | 472 |
| Passes against per match | 297 | 264 |
| Switches of play per match | 35.9 | 37 |
| Long balls per match | 40 | 46 |
| Set pieces | Club América | Deportivo Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 6.2 | 7.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.7 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.63 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.63 |
| Other | Club América | Deportivo Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Rodolfo Cota (Club América) | Luis Garcia (Deportivo Toluca) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 29 |
| Save % | 74% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 63% | 47% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Pachuca – Tigres UANL1 November 2026 00:00 CET
- CD Guadalajara – Atlante1 November 2026
- Monterrey – Tijuana1 November 2026 02:00 CET
- Santos Laguna – Necaxa2 November 2026 00:00 CET
- Cruz Azul – León2 November 2026 02:00 CET
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Club América vs Deportivo Toluca according to our model?
The model gives Club América a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Club América 45%, draw 26%, Deportivo Toluca 29%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Club América vs Deportivo Toluca?
The model expects 1.82 goals (xG) for Club América and 1.34 for Deportivo Toluca, 3.16 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Club América or draw (1X) 71%, Deportivo Toluca or draw (X2) 55% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.