01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Pumas UNAM or draw (X2)70%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
Liga MXEstadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla18°0,6 mm8 km/h
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PueblaPossession controlvs
Pumas UNAMPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Pumas UNAM (41%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.02 (+2 %)
Puebla vs Pumas UNAM · Liga MX
1 · Puebla 31%X 28%41% Pumas UNAM · 2
31%
28%
41%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Puebla vs Pumas UNAM (Liga MX, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Puebla win 31%, draw 28%, Pumas UNAM win 41%. Expected goals (xG): Puebla 1.19, Pumas UNAM 1.47. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Puebla or draw 59%, Pumas UNAM or draw 69%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Puebla – Pumas UNAM
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Pumas UNAM are the better side, but the sharper call is a tight game rather than a runaway away win: 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 13%, with under 2.5 goals the marginal lean. The visitors carry a 41% win probability against Puebla’s 31%, while the draw sits at 28%. That is a real edge, not a licence to chase a high-scoring favourite.
The underlying attack numbers explain the caution. Puebla average 0.92 xG per match and Pumas 1.1, producing expected goals of 1.19 for the hosts and 1.47 for the visitors here. Both sides profile as possession-control teams, so this could become a measured contest with long spells of territory but limited clean looks. The 0-1 scoreline rates 10%; 1-2 is at 9%.
Pumas have 17 points to Puebla’s 16, but the hosts lead on xPoints, 18.0 to 17.2. That distinction matters. The visitors have generated more xG per match, yet Puebla’s 1.3 xGA is better than Pumas’ 1.5, suggesting the home side have been the sturdier defensive unit despite the table gap. Pumas deserve the model lean, though they look closer to fairly priced than dominant.
The head-to-head since 2023 reads 0W 1D 3L for Puebla across 4 matches. It favours the visitors, plainly. Still, the sample is small and weighs less than form and expected goals, especially when the current numbers point to a narrow contest rather than a mismatch. Both teams to score is rated 54%, but over 2.5 goals is only 49%.
That leaves the unders as the value side. LeoVegas offer under 2.5 at 2.0, assessed as EV+ with the model rating it 51% for a 1% edge. Under 3.5 is also assessed as EV+: 1.4 with LeoVegas and 1.39 with Betsafe, both rated 72% by the model for a 1% edge. The bolder price is under 2.5 at LeoVegas.
PueblaForm LDDLL
League ranking xG #17xGA #8xT #17xP/match #12Points #14
Key players
- Brayan GarnicaRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.15
- Kevin VelascoRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.18
- Juan Pablo Vargas CamposCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Pumas UNAMForm LDWLD
League ranking xG #16xGA #10xT #12xP/match #14Points #12
Key players
- Robert MoralesFxG 0.25 · xT 0.06
- Nathan SilvaCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.05
- Rodrigo LopezRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.18
Match prediction: Puebla – Pumas UNAM
Predicted score matrix
Pumas UNAM →
Puebla →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.4%
0–110.0%
0–27.6%
0–33.7%
0–4+1.9%
1
1–08.0%
1–112.6%
1–29.0%
1–34.4%
1–4+2.2%
2
2–05.0%
2–17.3%
2–25.3%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–02.0%
3–12.9%
3–22.1%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.1%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.0-28%
Expected goals
1,19–1,47
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@2.02EV+0%
Over 2,549%
@1.75
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Pumas UNAM or draw (X2)70%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Robert Osmar Morales Benítez to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Robert Osmar Morales Benítez to score24%
- Alejandro Organista Orozco to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.551% probability@2.02LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds
- Under 3.572% probability@1.40LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds
- Under 3.572% probability@1.39BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Puebla | X | 2 · Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.32 |
| LeoVegas | 2.85 | 3.45 | 2.25 |
| Nordicbet | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.32 |
Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
10 %
35 %30 %
2.85 → 2.85
X+5 %
30 %25 %
3.30 → 3.45
2-2 %
43 %38 %
2.30 → 2.25
Over 2,50 %
57 %52 %
1.73 → 1.73
LeoVegas · 5 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesPuebla 0Draw 1Pumas UNAM 3
Goals: 3–7 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Puebla
Pumas UNAM
Puebla (16–21)
Pumas UNAM (20–23)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Puebla
Pumas UNAM
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Puebla
Pumas UNAM
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Puebla | Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 17 |
| xPoints | 18 | 17.2 |
| xG per match | 0.92 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.1 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| Playing style | Puebla | Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| xT per match | 0.75 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 299 | 326 |
| Passes against per match | 426 | 409 |
| Switches of play per match | 28.4 | 31 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Puebla | Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 6.9 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| Other | Puebla | Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Daniel Gutierrez (Puebla) | Keylor Antonio Navas Gamboa (Pumas UNAM) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 45 | 42 |
| Save % | 70% | 65% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 38% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Atlético San Luis – Atlas31 October 2026
- FC Juárez – Querétaro31 October 2026 02:00 CET
- Pachuca – Tigres UANL1 November 2026 00:00 CET
- CD Guadalajara – Atlante1 November 2026
- Monterrey – Tijuana1 November 2026 02:00 CET
- Club América – Deportivo Toluca1 November 2026 04:00 CET
- Santos Laguna – Necaxa2 November 2026 00:00 CET
- Cruz Azul – León2 November 2026 02:00 CET
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Puebla vs Pumas UNAM according to our model?
The model gives Pumas UNAM a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Puebla 31%, draw 28%, Pumas UNAM 41%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Puebla vs Pumas UNAM?
The model expects 1.19 goals (xG) for Puebla and 1.47 for Pumas UNAM, 2.65 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Puebla or draw (1X) 59%, Pumas UNAM or draw (X2) 69% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.