Arouca vs Nacional Prediction: Home win 59% (1 Nov 2026)

Primeira Liga1 November 2026Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca14°7 km/h

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AroucaBalanced & physical

NacionalPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Arouca (59%)

1 · Arouca 59%X 24%16% Nacional · 2

59%

24%

16%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Arouca vs Nacional (Primeira Liga, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Arouca win 59%, draw 24%, Nacional win 16%. Expected goals (xG): Arouca 1.82, Nacional 0.98. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Arouca or draw 84%, Nacional or draw 41%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Arouca – Nacional

Marcus Johansson · 24 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Nacional's six-game losing streak sets the stage for their clash with Arouca, who have dominated their recent head-to-head encounters, winning all four matches since 2023. The visitors’ struggles are stark, and they must confront a host side favored by a 59% win probability according to the model. The numbers paint a clear picture: Arouca's physical and balanced style, coupled with a home ground advantage, positions them well against a Nacional side inclined to control possession but lacking end-product.

Arouca's expected goals (xG) of 1.82 suggests they could potentially breach Nacional’s defense more than once, while the visitors muster a modest 0.98 xG. With Nacional’s xGA sitting at a concerning 1.8 per match, Arouca's chances of scoring are further enhanced. The most likely scorelines—1-1 and 1-0—reflect a relatively low-scoring affair, yet the over 2.5 goals probability hovers around 53%, indicating a slight nudge towards a match with more goals than not.

Combine Arouca's strong model probability with Nacional’s downward spiral, and a 1-0 or 2-0 victory for Arouca seems plausible, with the match leaning slightly toward over 2.5 goals given the model's 53% probability.

Arouca

Form WDLDW

League ranking xG #10xGA #8xT #8xP/match #9Points #5

Key players

Taichi FukuiCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.02
Jose FontanCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.08
Ivan BarberoFxG 0.40 · xT 0.02

Nacional

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #12xGA #17xT #6xP/match #18Points #16

Key players

Leonardo Rodrigues dos SantosCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.27
Chiheb LabidiCDMxG 0.12 · xT 0.07
Igor Matheus Liziero PereiraCMxG 0.22 · xT 0.17

Match prediction: Arouca – Nacional

Predicted score matrix

Nacional →

Arouca →

0–06.4%

0–15.6%

0–22.9%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.3%

1–010.8%

1–111.2%

1–25.3%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.5%

2–010.1%

2–19.9%

2–24.8%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–06.1%

3–16.0%

3–22.9%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–04.2%

4+–14.1%

4+–22.0%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-011%
3.2-010%
4.2-110%
5.0-06%

Expected goals

1,82–0,98

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@1.95

Over 2,553%

@1.82

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Arouca to win59%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Arouca to win59%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Espen van Ee to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Espen van Ee to score24%
Igor Matheus Liziero Pereira to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Arouca59% probability@1.85LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds
1 · Arouca59% probability@1.78BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
1 · Arouca59% probability@1.78NordicbetEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Arouca	X	2 · Nacional
Betsafe	EV+ 6% 1.78	3.60	4.10
LeoVegas	EV+ 10% 1.85	3.65	4.00
Nordicbet	EV+ 6% 1.78	3.60	4.10

Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

1-4 %

53 %48 %

1.92 → 1.85

X+1 %

28 %23 %

3.60 → 3.65

2+5 %

26 %21 %

3.80 → 4.00

LeoVegas · 10 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Arouca 4Draw 0Nacional 0

Goals: 8–2 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

Nacional have lost 6 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Arouca

Nacional

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Arouca (11–7)

Nacional (9–18)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Arouca

Nacional

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Arouca

Nacional

The teams in numbers

Performance	Arouca	Nacional
Points	14	4
xPoints	10.9	7
xG per match	1.1	1
xGA per match	1.2	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.04
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.33	0.23

Playing style	Arouca	Nacional
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.31
Field tilt	0.48	0.44
xT per match	0.85	0.94
xTA per match	1.1	0.88
Won balls, offensive half	20	23
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.21
Entries into the box per match	8	10
Entries into the box against	14	12
Pass completion %	0.8	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.74
Passes per match	382	352
Passes against per match	396	358
Switches of play per match	25.9	35
Long balls per match	30	39

Set pieces	Arouca	Nacional
xG from free kicks	0.01	0
Corners per match	3.1	4.4
Corners against per match	5.3	4.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.54
First touch, defensive corners %	0.7	0.67

Other	Arouca	Nacional
Throw-in control	0.76	0.76

The goalkeepers	Ignacio de Arruabarrena Fernández (Arouca)	Renato Bellucci Marin (Nacional)
Saves	31	29
Save %	82%	62%
xG prevented	78%	33%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Arouca

Fixtures, form & tips

Nacional

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Arouca spelschema Nacional spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Arouca vs Nacional according to our model?

The model gives Arouca a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Arouca 59%, draw 24%, Nacional 16%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Arouca vs Nacional?

The model expects 1.82 goals (xG) for Arouca and 0.98 for Nacional, 2.80 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Arouca or draw (1X) 84%, Nacional or draw (X2) 41% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.