Primeira LigaEstádio Pina Manique, Lissabon19°9 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Casa PiaCasa PiaLow block & direct
    vs
    Sporting CPSporting CPPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Sporting CP (73%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.48 (+4 %)

    Casa Pia vs Sporting CP · Primeira Liga

    1 · Casa Pia 10%X 17%73% Sporting CP · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP (Primeira Liga, Friday, 30 October 2026): Casa Pia win 10%, draw 17%, Sporting CP win 73%. Expected goals (xG): Casa Pia 0.82, Sporting CP 2.48. Most likely score: 0-2 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Casa Pia or draw 27%, Sporting CP or draw 90%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Casa Pia – Sporting CP

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    73% is the number: the model makes Sporting CP a clear away favourite. Casa Pia’s 0.82 expected goals sit against the visitors’ 2.48, while season xG per match is 0.7 versus 1.8 and xGA 1.7 versus 0.77. The points gap, 7 to 18, is backed by xPoints: 8.6 to 16.6.

    The hosts’ low-defence, direct approach is a poor fit against Sporting’s possession game and high press. Sporting have scored in 43 consecutive league matches, so the 0-2 scoreline, rated 11%, is the cleanest read; 0-3 and 1-2 both sit at 9%. The over 2.5 lean is solid at 64%, although both teams scoring is only 52%.

    Casa Pia have lost both head-to-head meetings since 2023, but two matches is a small sample and weighs less than form and expected goals. The sharper price is over 3.5: Betsafe and Nordicbet offer 2.48, with the model rating it 42% for a 4% edge. That is an EV+ assessment, not a guarantee—but it is the angle over a routinely priced Sporting win.

    Casa PiaCasa Pia
    Form DLWLW
    League ranking xG #18xGA #14xT #14xP/match #16Points #16
    Key players
    • João Pedro Goulart SilvaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
    • David SousaCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.05
    • Silvi Clua OyaCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.06
    Sporting CPSporting CP
    Form WDDWL
    League ranking xG #3xGA #4xT #4xP/match #3Points #3
    Key players
    • Goncalo InacioCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
    • Ivan FresnedaRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.13
    • Luis SuarezFxG 0.76 · xT 0.08

    Match prediction: Casa Pia – Sporting CP

    Predicted score matrix

    Sporting CP →
    Casa Pia →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.9%
    0–18.9%
    0–211.3%
    0–39.4%
    0–4+10.5%
    1
    1–02.8%
    1–17.7%
    1–29.3%
    1–37.7%
    1–4+8.6%
    2
    2–01.2%
    2–13.1%
    2–23.8%
    2–33.2%
    2–4+3.5%
    3
    3–00.3%
    3–10.8%
    3–21.0%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+1.0%
    4+
    4+–00.1%
    4+–10.2%
    4+–20.3%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.0-211%
    2. 2.0-39%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.0-19%
    5. 5.1-18%
    Expected goals
    0,82–2,48
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,536%
    @2.32
    Over 2,564%
    @1.57EV+1%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Sporting CP to win73%
    • Over 1.5 goals84%

    Combined probability

    65%

    Fair odds

    1.55

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Sporting CP to win73%
    • Over 2.5 goals64%
    • Fotis Ioannidis to score36%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals64%
    • Fotis Ioannidis to score36%
    • Domingos José Gabriel Bandeira to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 3.542% probability@2.48BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
    • Over 3.542% probability@2.48NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
    • Over 4.524% probability@4.25BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Casa PiaX2 · Sporting CP
    Betsafe9.705.251.26
    LeoVegas9.505.751.27
    Nordicbet9.705.251.26

    Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:36

    Odds movement

    1-14 %
    12 %7 %

    11.00 → 9.50

    X-8 %
    18 %13 %

    6.25 → 5.75

    2+2 %
    78 %73 %

    1.24 → 1.27

    Over 2,5+2 %
    64 %59 %

    1.53 → 1.57

    LeoVegas · 14 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Casa Pia 0Draw 0Sporting CP 2
    Goals: 0–5 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Sporting Lisboa have scored in 43 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Casa Pia
    Sporting CP
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Casa Pia (5–17)
    Sporting CP (21–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Casa Pia
    Andre Geraldes: 114 passningar, xT 0.2GeraldesLawrence Ofori: 108 passningar, xT 0.34OforiKaly: 106 passningar, xT 0.08KalyJoão Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo: 96 passningar, xT 0.2RêgoDavid Sousa: 89 passningar, xT 0.21SousaMohamed Salah El Boukammiri: 88 passningar, xT -0.05BoukammiriSilvi Clua Oya: 70 passningar, xT 0.22OyaIvan Mandić: 70 passningar, xT 0.19MandićPedro Silva Rosas: 66 passningar, xT -0.06RosasSeba Perez: 36 passningar, xT -0.01PerezBenjamin Pauwels: 31 passningar, xT 0Pauwels
    Sporting CP
    Goncalo Inacio: 385 passningar, xT 0.59InacioSergi Altimira Clavell: 326 passningar, xT 0.01ClavellIvan Fresneda: 304 passningar, xT 0.62FresnedaZeno Debast: 255 passningar, xT 0.48DebastMaxi Araujo: 199 passningar, xT 1.24AraujoGeny Catamo: 146 passningar, xT 0.6CatamoIssa Doumbia: 139 passningar, xT 0DoumbiaRui Silva: 126 passningar, xT -0.03SilvaNestory Irankunda: 78 passningar, xT 0.78IrankundaLuis Guilherme Lira dos Santos: 78 passningar, xT 0.28SantosFlávio Ferreira Gonçalves: 77 passningar, xT -0.08Gonçalves
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Casa Pia
    Andre Geraldes: 114 passningar, xT 0.2GeraldesLawrence Ofori: 108 passningar, xT 0.34OforiKaly: 106 passningar, xT 0.08KalyJoão Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo: 96 passningar, xT 0.2RêgoDavid Sousa: 89 passningar, xT 0.21SousaMohamed Salah El Boukammiri: 88 passningar, xT -0.05BoukammiriSilvi Clua Oya: 70 passningar, xT 0.22OyaIvan Mandić: 70 passningar, xT 0.19MandićPedro Silva Rosas: 66 passningar, xT -0.06RosasSeba Perez: 36 passningar, xT -0.01PerezBenjamin Pauwels: 31 passningar, xT 0Pauwels
    Sporting CP
    Goncalo Inacio: 385 passningar, xT 0.59InacioSergi Altimira Clavell: 326 passningar, xT 0.01ClavellIvan Fresneda: 304 passningar, xT 0.62FresnedaZeno Debast: 255 passningar, xT 0.48DebastMaxi Araujo: 199 passningar, xT 1.24AraujoGeny Catamo: 146 passningar, xT 0.6CatamoIssa Doumbia: 139 passningar, xT 0DoumbiaRui Silva: 126 passningar, xT -0.03SilvaNestory Irankunda: 78 passningar, xT 0.78IrankundaLuis Guilherme Lira dos Santos: 78 passningar, xT 0.28SantosFlávio Ferreira Gonçalves: 77 passningar, xT -0.08Gonçalves

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceCasa PiaSporting CP
    Points718
    xPoints8.616.6
    xG per match0.71.8
    xGA per match1.70.77
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.10.19
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.410.17
    Playing styleCasa PiaSporting CP
    Build-up efficiency0.290.33
    Field tilt0.40.63
    xT per match0.651.1
    xTA per match1.10.53
    Won balls, offensive half2423
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.280.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.25
    Entries into the box per match1013
    Entries into the box against147
    Pass completion %0.710.84
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.78
    Passes per match266495
    Passes against per match378299
    Switches of play per match22.536.2
    Long balls per match2634
    Set piecesCasa PiaSporting CP
    xG from free kicks0.020.02
    Corners per match4.15.2
    Corners against per match6.32.5
    xG per corner0.020.02
    xGA per corner against0.040.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.510.52
    First touch, defensive corners %0.510.48
    OtherCasa PiaSporting CP
    Throw-in control0.710.8
    The goalkeepersIvan Mandić (Casa Pia)Rui Silva (Sporting CP)
    Saves1316
    Save %68%70%
    xG prevented31%47%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Casa Pia
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Sporting CP
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Casa Pia spelschemaSporting CP spelschema

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Casa Pia vs Sporting CP according to our model?

    The model gives Sporting CP a 73% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Casa Pia 10%, draw 17%, Sporting CP 73%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?

    The model expects 0.82 goals (xG) for Casa Pia and 2.48 for Sporting CP, 3.30 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Casa Pia or draw (1X) 27%, Sporting CP or draw (X2) 90% and no draw (12) 83%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.