Benfica vs Alverca Prediction: Home win 78% (2 Nov 2026)

Primeira Liga2 November 2026Estádio da Luz, Lissabon19°13 km/h

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BenficaPossession & high press

AlvercaPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Benfica (78%)Best value by the model: 2 · Alverca @ 14.50 (+14 %)

1 · Benfica 78%X 15%8% Alverca · 2

78%

15%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Benfica vs Alverca (Primeira Liga, Monday, 2 November 2026): Benfica win 78%, draw 15%, Alverca win 8%. Expected goals (xG): Benfica 2.47, Alverca 0.90. Most likely score: 2-0 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Benfica or draw 92%, Alverca or draw 22%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Benfica – Alverca

Oscar Nilsson · 24 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Benfica's relentless scoring streak is a compelling starting point. With goals in 22 consecutive league matches, the hosts are clearly an attacking force to be reckoned with. Their ability to break down defenses is reflected in their expected goals (xG) of 2.47 against Alverca, suggesting a strong likelihood of finding the back of the net multiple times.

On the flip side, Alverca arrives in Lisbon with a respectable three-match winning streak. Yet, these victories might not be enough against a team that wins 74% of their home games historically. Alverca's possession-oriented style might control portions of the match, but their xG of 0.90 indicates limited offensive threat against a defense as formidable as Benfica's, which concedes just 0.64 xGA per match.

Though the head-to-head between these sides features a small sample size of two games, both won by Benfica, it slightly favors the hosts but does not heavily sway the analysis. The more significant factors are the underlying metrics and recent forms, both pointing towards a home advantage. The most probable scorelines — 2-0 and 2-1 — underline Benfica's expected dominance while hinting at Alverca's potential to snatch a goal.

For bettors, the market's inclination towards over 2.5 goals at 66% is worth noting. Given the attacking tendencies of both sides, especially Benfica, this provides a reasonable angle to explore. However, for those seeking value, Benfica to win with a -1.5 Asian handicap can be found at attractive odds of 2.00 on Bet365, suggesting a possible edge against the spread.

In summary, Benfica's superior form and statistics suggest a likely victory, with the match leaning towards a 2-0 or 3-0 scoreline. Goals are expected, and while Alverca may fight valiantly, the hosts should have too much firepower in the end.

Benfica

Form WWWLW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #2

Key players

Vangelis PavlidisFxG 0.77 · xT 0.14
Samuel DahlLBxG 0.10 · xT 0.15
Tomas AraujoCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.15

Alverca

Form DLWWW

League ranking xG #5xGA #11xT #7xP/match #7Points #8

Key players

Francisco Jorge Tavares OliveiraRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.10
Diogo SpencerRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.37
Lucas Figueiredo dos SantosCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Benfica – Alverca

Predicted score matrix

Alverca →

Benfica →

0–03.7%

0–12.9%

0–21.4%

0–30.4%

0–4+0.1%

1–08.3%

1–17.9%

1–23.4%

1–31.0%

1–4+0.3%

2–010.5%

2–19.4%

2–24.2%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.3%

3–08.6%

3–17.8%

3–23.5%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.3%

4+–09.6%

4+–18.7%

4+–23.9%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.2-19%
3.3-09%
4.1-08%
5.1-18%

Expected goals

2,47–0,90

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+25%

Under 2,534%

@2.85

Over 2,566%

@1.40

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Benfica to win78%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Benfica to win78%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Gianluca Prestianni Gross to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Gianluca Prestianni Gross to score29%
Rayan Lucas Marques de Souza to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Alverca8% probability@14.50BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
2 · Alverca8% probability@14.50NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
X · Draw15% probability@7.00LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Benfica	X	2 · Alverca
Betsafe	1.17	6.60	EV+ 14% 14.50
LeoVegas	1.19	EV+ 2% 7.00	12.00
Nordicbet	1.17	6.60	EV+ 14% 14.50

Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:37

Odds movement

1+4 %

83 %78 %

1.14 → 1.19

X-18 %

15 %10 %

8.50 → 7.00

2-20 %

10 %5 %

15.00 → 12.00

Over 2,5+6 %

71 %66 %

1.32 → 1.40

LeoVegas · 11 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Benfica 2Draw 0Alverca 0

Goals: 4–2 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

Benfica have scored in 22 consecutive league matches.
Futebol Clube De Alverca come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Benfica win 74% of their home matches all-time (38 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Benfica

Alverca

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Benfica (24–7)

Alverca (13–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Benfica

Alverca

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Benfica

Alverca

The teams in numbers

Performance	Benfica	Alverca
Points	19	11
xPoints	16.7	12
xG per match	2.4	1.5
xGA per match	0.64	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.55	0.34
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.25

Playing style	Benfica	Alverca
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.28
Field tilt	0.8	0.38
xT per match	1.7	0.89
xTA per match	0.53	0.82
Won balls, offensive half	32	23
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.21
Entries into the box per match	26	9
Entries into the box against	7	10
Pass completion %	0.82	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.68
Passes per match	497	286
Passes against per match	256	421
Switches of play per match	37.7	20.9
Long balls per match	41	27

Set pieces	Benfica	Alverca
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.01
Corners per match	7.8	4.8
Corners against per match	2.3	3.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.66

Other	Benfica	Alverca
Throw-in control	0.76	0.67

The goalkeepers	Samuel Soares (Benfica)	Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira (Alverca)
Saves	10	25
Save %	59%	69%
xG prevented	48%	34%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Benfica

Fixtures, form & tips

Alverca

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Benfica spelschema Alverca spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Benfica vs Alverca according to our model?

The model gives Benfica a 78% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Benfica 78%, draw 15%, Alverca 8%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Benfica vs Alverca?

The model expects 2.47 goals (xG) for Benfica and 0.90 for Alverca, 3.37 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Benfica or draw (1X) 92%, Alverca or draw (X2) 22% and no draw (12) 85%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.