Maritimo vs Santa Clara Prediction: Away win 48% (1 Nov 2026)

Primeira Liga1 November 2026Estádio dos Barreiros, Funchal20°11 km/h

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MaritimoPossession control

Santa ClaraPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Santa Clara (48%)

1 · Maritimo 23%X 29%48% Santa Clara · 2

23%

29%

48%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Maritimo vs Santa Clara (Primeira Liga, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Maritimo win 23%, draw 29%, Santa Clara win 48%. Expected goals (xG): Maritimo 0.81, Santa Clara 1.26. Most likely score: 0-1 (15%). Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 40%. Double chance: Maritimo or draw 52%, Santa Clara or draw 77%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Maritimo – Santa Clara

Sofia Andersson · 24 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The TEXT is accurate except for one unsupported claim: there is no odds data (e.g., "2.10 or greater") in the FACTS, so this figure is fabricated.

Corrected text:

Santa Clara's unbeaten streak of eight league matches underscores their edge over Maritimo in this matchup. The model probabilities favor the visitors heavily at 48%, while Maritimo's chances lag at 23%. Given Santa Clara's superior xG of 1.4 per match compared to Maritimo's 0.79, the numbers suggest a visiting team that not only creates more but is also more organized defensively, with a much lower xGA of 0.66 compared to the hosts' 1.5.

Maritimo's possession control approach might struggle to generate meaningful chances, as suggested by their low expected goals of 0.81 for this game. Santa Clara, also focusing on possession, has been more effective in translating this approach into results, which is evident in their 18 points versus Maritimo's 8. The control of play may not easily transform into goals, especially with the over 2.5 goals probability sitting at just 34%.

The most likely scoreline according to the model is a narrow 0-1 victory for Santa Clara, aligning with their statistical dominance and recent form. The draw at 0-0 or 1-1 also looms as a possibility, yet the odds favor the visitors breaking through Maritimo's defenses. Despite both teams having a possession-based style, the likelihood of both finding the net remains low at 40%.

Betting markets could offer value on Santa Clara. The visitors present a clear edge based on current form and statistical indicators. Considering the model's probabilities and Santa Clara's recent performances, backing them could represent a calculated risk where the reward potential outweighs what's implied by the numbers.

Maritimo

Form LLDLL

League ranking xG #15xGA #12xT #14xP/match #14Points #13

Key players

Romain CorreiaCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
Mohamed Bouzaidi DiouriRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.04
Raphael Gregório GuzzoCAMxG 0.07 · xT 0.05

Santa Clara

Form DWWDW

League ranking xG #7xGA #2xT #9xP/match #4Points #4

Key players

Pedro PachecoCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.12
Pedro FerreiraCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.06
Diogo dos Santos CabralRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Maritimo – Santa Clara

Predicted score matrix

Santa Clara →

Maritimo →

0–012.9%

0–115.5%

0–210.0%

0–34.2%

0–4+1.8%

1–09.8%

1–113.3%

1–28.1%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.4%

2–04.1%

2–15.2%

2–23.3%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.6%

3–01.1%

3–11.4%

3–20.9%

3–30.4%

3–4+0.2%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.3%

4+–20.2%

4+–30.1%

4+–4+0.0%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-115%
2.1-113%
3.0-013%
4.0-210%
5.1-010%

Expected goals

0,81–1,26

Both teams to score

40%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,1

013%

125%

227%

319%

410%

Under 2,566%

@1.53EV+1%

Over 2,534%

@2.40

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Santa Clara to win48%
Under 3.5 goals84%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Santa Clara to win48%
Under 2.5 goals66%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score40%
Over 2.5 goals34%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Santa Clara48% probability@2.29PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
2 · Santa Clara48% probability@2.25LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
Under 1.538% probability@2.68BetsafeEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Maritimo	X	2 · Santa Clara
Betsafe	3.35	3.10	EV+ 2% 2.15
LeoVegas	3.35	3.15	EV+ 7% 2.25
Nordicbet	3.35	3.10	EV+ 2% 2.15
Pinnacle	3.42	3.08	EV+ 9% 2.29

Odds updated 27 Oct, 11:36

Statistics

Key facts

Santa Clara are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Maritimo

Santa Clara

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Maritimo (9–19)

Santa Clara (12–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Maritimo

Santa Clara

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Maritimo

Santa Clara

The teams in numbers

Performance	Maritimo	Santa Clara
Points	8	18
xPoints	9.1	15
xG per match	0.79	1.4
xGA per match	1.5	0.66
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.37
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.09

Playing style	Maritimo	Santa Clara
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.38	0.49
xT per match	0.66	0.82
xTA per match	1.2	0.69
Won balls, offensive half	25	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.23
Entries into the box per match	9	11
Entries into the box against	14	10
Pass completion %	0.74	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.68
Passes per match	300	317
Passes against per match	396	363
Switches of play per match	29.8	27.8
Long balls per match	34	30

Set pieces	Maritimo	Santa Clara
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.06
Corners per match	3.1	4.1
Corners against per match	4.7	5.3
xG per corner	0.04	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.55
First touch, defensive corners %	0.69	0.57

Other	Maritimo	Santa Clara
Throw-in control	0.74	0.69

The goalkeepers	Alfonso Pastor Vacas (Maritimo)	Lucas Franca (Santa Clara)
Saves	22	15
Save %	67%	79%
xG prevented	28%	53%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Maritimo

Fixtures, form & tips

Santa Clara

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Maritimo spelschema Santa Clara spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Maritimo vs Santa Clara according to our model?

The model gives Santa Clara a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Maritimo 23%, draw 29%, Santa Clara 48%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 15% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 34% and under at 66%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 40% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Maritimo vs Santa Clara?

The model expects 0.81 goals (xG) for Maritimo and 1.26 for Santa Clara, 2.07 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Maritimo or draw (1X) 52%, Santa Clara or draw (X2) 77% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.