01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Estrela da Amadora or draw (X2)71%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Primeira LigaParque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos15°7 km/h
Läs på svenska
MoreirenseLow block & directvs
Estrela da AmadoraPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Estrela da Amadora (41%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.35 (+1 %)
Moreirense vs Estrela da Amadora · Primeira Liga
1 · Moreirense 31%X 29%41% Estrela da Amadora · 2
31%
29%
41%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Moreirense vs Estrela da Amadora (Primeira Liga, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Moreirense win 31%, draw 29%, Estrela da Amadora win 41%. Expected goals (xG): Moreirense 1.21, Estrela da Amadora 1.56. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Moreirense or draw 59%, Estrela da Amadora or draw 69%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.
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Analysis: Moreirense – Estrela da Amadora
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
The most probable scorelines are 1-1 (12%) and 0-1 (9%). The text incorrectly states both are at 9%, when 1-1 is actually 12%. Also, the claim about Bet365 odds (2.50) is unsupported by the provided facts.
CORRECTED TEXT:
The model leans towards Estrela da Amadora, giving them a 41% chance of victory compared to Moreirense's 31%. This edge is reflected in the expected goals, with the visitors projected to score 1.56 against the hosts' 1.21. Estrela's possession and high press style might exploit Moreirense’s low defense and direct approach.
Historical head-to-heads since 2023 show an even split in a small sample size, but current form favors the visitors. Estrela leads in points (10) and xPoints (10.0), with a more efficient xG per match of 1.2 against Moreirense's 0.77. Defensively, Moreirense concedes an average of 1.7 xGA per match, which is higher than Estrela’s 1.4, suggesting vulnerabilities that Estrela might exploit.
With a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals, the match leans slightly towards being a high-scoring affair, although both teams finding the net is more likely at 56%. The most probable scorelines are 1-1 (12%) and 0-1 (9%). Given the odds and probabilities, there's a potential value in betting on Estrela, considering their form and statistical edge over Moreirense.
MoreirenseForm LLWDL
League ranking xG #16xGA #16xT #17xP/match #11Points #12
Key players
- Nile Omari Mckenzie JohnCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.03
- Manuel Ascencao Bebiano MendoncaLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.15
- Dinis PintoRWBxG 0.12 · xT 0.09
Estrela da AmadoraForm DWDLL
League ranking xG #8xGA #10xT #4xP/match #10Points #10
Key players
- Abraham MarcusRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.18
- Luan Patrick WiedthäuperCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
- Stefan LekovićCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.04
Match prediction: Moreirense – Estrela da Amadora
Predicted score matrix
Estrela da Amadora →
Moreirense →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.6%
0–19.5%
0–27.6%
0–34.0%
0–4+2.2%
1
1–07.2%
1–112.2%
1–29.2%
1–34.8%
1–4+2.6%
2
2–04.6%
2–17.1%
2–25.6%
2–32.9%
2–4+1.6%
3
3–01.8%
3–12.9%
3–22.2%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–00.7%
4+–11.1%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-19%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.0-28%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,21–1,56
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,548%
@1.83
Over 2,552%
@1.92EV+0%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Estrela da Amadora or draw (X2)71%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Leandro Antonetti López to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- João Miguel Fins Veloso to score27%
- Rodrigo Alonso Martín to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.530% probability@3.35BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
- Over 3.530% probability@3.35NordicbetEV+1%reference odds
- Over 1.577% probability@1.31LeoVegasEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Moreirense | X | 2 · Estrela da Amadora |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.35 |
| LeoVegas | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
| Nordicbet | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.35 |
Odds updated 27 Oct, 11:36
Odds movement
1+4 %
35 %30 %
2.80 → 2.90
X0 %
31 %26 %
3.30 → 3.30
2-4 %
41 %36 %
2.50 → 2.40
LeoVegas · 10 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesMoreirense 1Draw 2Estrela da Amadora 1
Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Moreirense
Estrela da Amadora
Moreirense (8–15)
Estrela da Amadora (14–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Moreirense
Estrela da Amadora
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Moreirense
Estrela da Amadora
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Moreirense | Estrela da Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 10 |
| xPoints | 9.1 | 10 |
| xG per match | 0.77 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.11 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.42 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Moreirense | Estrela da Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Field tilt | 0.21 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 0.54 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.91 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 5 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 249 | 357 |
| Passes against per match | 493 | 339 |
| Switches of play per match | 17 | 34.2 |
| Long balls per match | 25 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Moreirense | Estrela da Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 2.4 | 4.3 |
| Corners against per match | 4.8 | 4.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.6 |
| Other | Moreirense | Estrela da Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Andre Ferreira (Moreirense) | Leonardo Matias Baiersdorf Linck (Estrela da Amadora) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 23 | 24 |
| Save % | 62% | 62% |
| xG prevented | 38% | 39% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Moreirense spelschemaEstrela da Amadora spelschema
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Moreirense vs Estrela da Amadora according to our model?
The model gives Estrela da Amadora a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Moreirense 31%, draw 29%, Estrela da Amadora 41%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Moreirense vs Estrela da Amadora?
The model expects 1.21 goals (xG) for Moreirense and 1.56 for Estrela da Amadora, 2.77 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Moreirense or draw (1X) 59%, Estrela da Amadora or draw (X2) 69% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.