01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Čukarički to win57%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Serbian Super LeagueStadion Čukarički, Belgrad11°10 km/h
Läs på svenska
ČukaričkiLow block & direct3–0
ZemunLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Čukarički (57%)Best value by the model: 2 · Zemun @ 7.50 (+41 %)
Čukarički vs Zemun · Serbian Super League
1 · Čukarički 57%X 24%19% Zemun · 2
57%
24%
19%
Prediction summary
Final score 3–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Čukarički vs Zemun (Serbian Super League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Čukarički win 57%, draw 24%, Zemun win 19%. Expected goals (xG): Čukarički 1.86, Zemun 1.05. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Čukarički or draw 81%, Zemun or draw 43%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Čukarički – Zemun
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Čukarički holds the upper hand with a 57% win probability against Zemun's mere 19%. This is reflected in their points tally: 12 for the hosts compared to the visitors' 3. The expected goals further underscore this disparity, with Čukarički at 1.86 and Zemun trailing at 1.05. Despite both teams featuring low defence and direct styles, the hosts’ superior xG and xGA metrics highlight their edge.
While the most likely scorelines are tightly contested—1-1 at 11% and 2-1 or 1-0 both at 10%—the hosts still hold the advantage. Čukarički's xPoints of 16.0 versus Zemun's 6.5 underline their stronger form. With a slight 56% lean on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 55%, goals could be on the cards, yet the hosts' defensive metrics suggest control. The matchup favors a narrow Čukarički win, perhaps 2-1.
For those chasing value, the odds favoring a Zemun win at 6.1 with Betsafe and Nordicbet present a tempting 15% edge, though a Zemun victory remains unlikely. A draw at odds of 4.25 with Betsafe also offers a 4% edge, aligning with the 24% model probability. Yet, prudent bettors will likely anchor on the hosts’ steadiness.
ČukaričkiForm LLDLD
League ranking xG #10xGA #13xT #10xP/match #8Points #9
Key players
- Marko DocićFxG 0.17 · xT 0.06
- Uroš MiladinovićCAMxG 0.36 · xT 0.16
- Veljko RadosavljevićFxG 0.30 · xT 0.04
ZemunForm LLDDL
League ranking xG #15xGA #15xT #13xP/match #15Points #15
Key players
- Milan SpremoLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.16
- Godswill VadzeRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.07
- Vasilije BakićCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.02
Final score
3 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Čukarički 57% · Draw 24% · Zemun 19%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - FK ZemunBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 25,91fair 18,65+39 %
MissMatchresultat - CukarickiBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,32fair 5,97-28 %
MissMatch prediction: Čukarički – Zemun
Predicted score matrix
Zemun →
Čukarički →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.8%
0–15.4%
0–23.0%
0–31.0%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–09.9%
1–111.0%
1–25.6%
1–31.9%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.4%
2–19.9%
2–25.2%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–05.8%
3–16.1%
3–23.2%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–04.1%
4+–14.3%
4+–22.3%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.3-16%
Expected goals
1,86–1,05
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.20
Over 2,556%
@1.67
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Čukarički to win57%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Uroš Nikolić to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Uroš Nikolić to score26%
- Sambou Sissoko to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Zemun19% probability@7.50Paddy PowerEV+41%reference odds
- 2 · Zemun19% probability@6.90PinnacleEV+30%reference odds
- 2 · Zemun19% probability@6.60BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Čukarički | X | 2 · Zemun |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.40 | EV+ 13% 4.60 | EV+ 22% 6.50 |
| Betfair Exchange | 1.13 | 1.15 | 1.13 |
| Betsafe | 1.38 | EV+ 8% 4.40 | EV+ 24% 6.60 |
| LeoVegas | 1.38 | EV+ 7% 4.35 | EV+ 21% 6.40 |
| Nordicbet | 1.38 | EV+ 8% 4.40 | EV+ 24% 6.60 |
| Paddy Power | 1.33 | EV+ 10% 4.50 | EV+ 41% 7.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.38 | EV+ 9% 4.45 | EV+ 30% 6.90 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Čukarički win since 15 October — the odds have shortened from 1.46 to 1.38 (−5%).
1-5 %
67 %62 %
1.46 → 1.38
X+7 %
24 %19 %
4.16 → 4.45
2+16 %
17 %12 %
5.94 → 6.90
Over 2,5-3 %
58 %53 %
1.70 → 1.65
Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 16/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Čukarički
Zemun
Čukarički (14–20)
Zemun (6–22)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Čukarički
Zemun
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Čukarički
Zemun
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Čukarički | Zemun |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 3 |
| xPoints | 16 | 6.5 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 0.56 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.37 | 0.11 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.29 | 0.49 |
| Playing style | Čukarički | Zemun |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| xT per match | 0.88 | 0.73 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 19 |
| Pass completion % | 0.68 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 248 | 243 |
| Passes against per match | 376 | 445 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.4 | 15.1 |
| Long balls per match | 26 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Čukarički | Zemun |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| Corners against per match | 5.4 | 5.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.57 |
| Other | Čukarički | Zemun |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| The goalkeepers | Vladan Carapic (Čukarički) | Mladen Živković (Zemun) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 23 | 50 |
| Save % | 66% | 76% |
| xG prevented | 33% | 65% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Radnik Surdulica – Radnički Niš16 October 2026 17:00 CEST
- Vojvodina – Radnički 192317 October 2026 17:00 CEST
- Mačva Šabac – OFK Beograd17 October 2026 19:00 CEST
- Red Star Belgrade – Mladost Lučani18 October 2026
- Novi Pazar – IMT18 October 2026
- Železničar Pančevo – Partizan Belgrade18 October 2026 18:30 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Čukarički vs Zemun according to our model?
The model gives Čukarički a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Čukarički 57%, draw 24%, Zemun 19%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Čukarički vs Zemun?
The model expects 1.86 goals (xG) for Čukarički and 1.05 for Zemun, 2.91 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Čukarički or draw (1X) 81%, Zemun or draw (X2) 43% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.