01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Novi Pazar or draw (1X)63%
- Under 3.5 goals78%
Serbian Super League11°10 km/h
Läs på svenska
Novi PazarPossession control1–2
IMTPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Novi Pazar (36%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.90 (+9 %)
Novi Pazar vs IMT · Serbian Super League
1 · Novi Pazar 36%X 30%34% IMT · 2
36%
30%
34%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Novi Pazar vs IMT (Serbian Super League, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Novi Pazar win 36%, draw 30%, IMT win 34%. Expected goals (xG): Novi Pazar 1.16, IMT 1.23. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Novi Pazar or draw 66%, IMT or draw 64%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Novi Pazar – IMT
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT:
A intriguing tension defines the upcoming clash between Novi Pazar and FK IMT Beograd: both teams lean heavily on possession control, yet their clash may not be the goal-rich affair one might expect from such styles. While the model sees Novi Pazar as slight favorites at 36%, it's the similarities and differences in their tactical execution that could decide the match. With both teams focusing on holding the ball, the question becomes: who will break the deadlock?
In terms of form, the home advantage seems significant for Novi Pazar. They've amassed 13 points to FK IMT's 5, and their expected points of 18.2 to 7.3 suggests they've been the more effective side. Furthermore, Novi Pazar averages 1.4 expected goals (xG) per match, marginally higher than IMT's 1.3. Yet, it's IMT’s defense that could throw a wrench in the hosts' plans—boasting an xGA of just 0.73 per match, IMT could frustrate Novi Pazar's attempts to capitalize on their home turf.
Goals might be at a premium. The model gives only a 43% chance for over 2.5 goals, and neither side is a clear favorite to score multiple times. A 1-1 draw tops the list of likely outcomes at 13%, followed by a narrow 0-1 win for the visitors at 11%. With both defenses primed to absorb pressure, betting on under 2.5 goals seems a sensible consideration.
Given the model's lean towards the hosts, FK Novi Pazar stand out as the side to watch. The match's outcome might come down to a single goal, and with IMT's defense showing resilience, the narrowest of margins could define the day.
Novi PazarForm DWDDL
League ranking xG #6xGA #6xT #6xP/match #5Points #8
Key players
- Jovan MarinkovićCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.12
- Dominic Wadi SadiRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.11
- Kaheim Anthony DixonLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.16
IMTForm DLDW
League ranking xG #8xGA #2xT #12xP/match #2Points #14
Key players
- Vasilije NovičićCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.03
- Julián Javier Delmás GermánRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
- Moussa SissakoCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.06
Final score
1 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Novi Pazar 36% · Draw 30% · IMT 34%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - IMT Novi BeogradBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,89fair 13,21-25 %
MissMatchresultat - FK Novi PazarBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,42fair 14,80-43 %
MissMatch prediction: Novi Pazar – IMT
Predicted score matrix
IMT →
Novi Pazar →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.6%
0–110.9%
0–26.9%
0–32.8%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–010.3%
1–113.5%
1–28.0%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–06.2%
2–17.6%
2–24.7%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–02.4%
3–12.9%
3–21.8%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–11.1%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.0-010%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,16–1,23
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,4010%
121%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,557%
@1.90EV+0%
Over 2,543%
@2.05
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Novi Pazar or draw (1X)63%
- Under 2.5 goals57%
- Ivan Davidović to score19%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals43%
- Tadija Cojic to score26%
- Moussa Sissako to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.557% probability@1.90PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
- Under 1.531% probability@3.30Paddy PowerEV+1%reference odds
- Under 3.578% probability@1.29Bet365EV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Novi Pazar | X | 2 · IMT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.70 |
| Betsafe | 2.38 | 3.20 | 2.72 |
| LeoVegas | 2.35 | 3.15 | 2.70 |
| Nordicbet | 2.38 | 3.20 | 2.72 |
| Paddy Power | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.63 |
| Pinnacle | 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.72 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 12:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 15 October — the odds have shortened from 2.05 to 1.86 (−9%).
1-3 %
40 %35 %
2.47 → 2.40
X+6 %
32 %27 %
3.03 → 3.20
2-2 %
35 %30 %
2.77 → 2.72
Over 2,5-9 %
51 %46 %
2.05 → 1.86
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Novi Pazar
IMT
Novi Pazar (10–12)
IMT (3–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Novi Pazar
IMT
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Novi Pazar
IMT
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Novi Pazar | IMT |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 5 |
| xPoints | 18.2 | 7.3 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 0.73 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.45 | 0.58 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| Playing style | Novi Pazar | IMT |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.42 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.78 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.66 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.66 |
| Passes per match | 294 | 251 |
| Passes against per match | 315 | 344 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.6 | 14 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Novi Pazar | IMT |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4.6 | 4.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.8 | 2.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.63 | 0.36 |
| Other | Novi Pazar | IMT |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Bogdan Matijašević (Novi Pazar) | Ognjen Čančarević (IMT) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 7 |
| Save % | 76% | 78% |
| xG prevented | 62% | 69% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Radnik Surdulica – Radnički Niš16 October 2026 17:00 CEST
- Čukarički – Zemun17 October 2026 15:00 CEST
- Vojvodina – Radnički 192317 October 2026 17:00 CEST
- Mačva Šabac – OFK Beograd17 October 2026 19:00 CEST
- Red Star Belgrade – Mladost Lučani18 October 2026
- Železničar Pančevo – Partizan Belgrade18 October 2026 18:30 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Novi Pazar vs IMT according to our model?
The model gives Novi Pazar a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Novi Pazar 36%, draw 30%, IMT 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Novi Pazar vs IMT?
The model expects 1.16 goals (xG) for Novi Pazar and 1.23 for IMT, 2.39 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Novi Pazar or draw (1X) 66%, IMT or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 70%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.