Red Star Belgrade vs Mladost Lučani: Prediction & Odds (18 Oct 2026)

Serbian Super League18 October 2026Rajko Mitić-stadion, Belgrad14°12 km/h

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Red Star BelgradePossession & high press

5–1

Mladost LučaniLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Red Star Belgrade (83%)

1 · Red Star Belgrade 83%X 12%6% Mladost Lučani · 2

83%

Prediction summary

Final score 5–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Red Star Belgrade vs Mladost Lučani (Serbian Super League, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Red Star Belgrade win 83%, draw 12%, Mladost Lučani win 6%. Expected goals (xG): Red Star Belgrade 2.77, Mladost Lučani 0.53. Most likely score: 2-0 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 39%. Double chance: Red Star Belgrade or draw 94%, Mladost Lučani or draw 17%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Red Star Belgrade – Mladost Lučani

Erik Lindberg · 16 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Red Star Belgrade's 83% win probability highlights their dominance ahead of this clash against FK Mladost Lučani. The hosts have claimed victory in 4 of their last 5 encounters with the visitors, showcasing a clear edge in this fixture, albeit from a limited sample. Moreover, Red Star's home fortress sees an 84% win rate, making their position even more formidable.

The expected goals heavily lean towards the hosts at 2.77 compared to Mladost's meager 0.53. Despite the historically high-scoring nature of their matchups, Red Star's defensive solidity, conceding just 0.67 xGA per match, suggests a controlled outcome. Model data favors a 2-0 or 3-0 result, aligning with Red Star's attacking prowess and Mladost's defensive vulnerabilities.

The over 2.5 goals market sees a 64% probability, implying a fair chance for goals in this match, but with a defensive structure in place, the under remains a safer bet. For those seeking value, Red Star's comprehensive dominance paired with a solid defensive performance suggests that a 2-0 or 3-0 scoreline at odds offered by bookmakers could present an edge. With Red Star's momentum and superior metrics, this match may be more about consolidating predictability than chasing higher odds.

Red Star Belgrade

Form DWWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Aleksandar KataiFxG 0.76 · xT 0.17
Matej GashtarovCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
Derrick LuckassenLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.05

Mladost Lučani

Form LWLWD

League ranking xG #13xGA #11xT #14xP/match #10Points #5

Key players

Vasil TašovskiRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.00
Nikola AndrićCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.04
Nikola ĆirkovićCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05

Final score

5 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Red Star Belgrade 83% · Draw 12% · Mladost Lučani 6%

Match prediction: Red Star Belgrade – Mladost Lučani

Predicted score matrix

Mladost Lučani →

Red Star Belgrade →

0–03.8%

0–11.8%

0–20.5%

0–30.1%

0–4+0.0%

1–010.0%

1–15.6%

1–21.5%

1–30.3%

1–4+0.0%

2–014.1%

2–17.5%

2–22.0%

2–30.4%

2–4+0.1%

3–013.0%

3–16.9%

3–21.9%

3–30.3%

3–4+0.0%

4+–017.6%

4+–19.4%

4+–22.5%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-014%
2.3-013%
3.1-010%
4.4-09%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

2,77–0,53

Both teams to score

39%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,536%

–

Over 2,564%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Red Star Belgrade to win83%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Red Star Belgrade to win83%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Mohamed Abu Fani to score38%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score39%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Mohamed Abu Fani to score38%
Veljko Kijevčanin to be booked23%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Red Star Belgrade 4Draw 1Mladost Lučani 0

Goals: 15–4 (⌀ 3,8)

Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Red Star Belgrade dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.8 goals per meeting on average.
Red Star Belgrade come into this round on 4 straight wins.
Red Star Belgrade win 84% of their home matches all-time (44 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Red Star Belgrade

Mladost Lučani

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Red Star Belgrade (27–3)

Mladost Lučani (10–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Red Star Belgrade

Mladost Lučani

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Red Star Belgrade

Mladost Lučani

The teams in numbers

Performance	Red Star Belgrade	Mladost Lučani
Points	31	17
xPoints	21.9	14
xG per match	2.4	0.88
xGA per match	0.67	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.32	0.09
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.1	0.17

Playing style	Red Star Belgrade	Mladost Lučani
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.28
Field tilt	0.71	0.28
xT per match	1.9	0.65
xTA per match	0.74	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	23	20
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.2
Entries into the box per match	17	9
Entries into the box against	9	15
Pass completion %	0.83	0.69
Pass completion % under pressure	0.79	0.64
Passes per match	484	254
Passes against per match	256	410
Switches of play per match	40.2	11.6
Long balls per match	45	25

Set pieces	Red Star Belgrade	Mladost Lučani
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.04
Corners per match	4.7	3
Corners against per match	3.1	6
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.63	0.52
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.6

Other	Red Star Belgrade	Mladost Lučani
Throw-in control	0.85	0.64

The goalkeepers	Matheus Lima Magalhães (Red Star Belgrade)	Saša Stamenković (Mladost Lučani)
Saves	26	51
Save %	90%	81%
xG prevented	68%	67%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Red Star Belgrade

Fixtures, form & tips

Mladost Lučani

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Red Star Belgrade vs Mladost Lučani according to our model?

The model gives Red Star Belgrade a 83% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Red Star Belgrade 83%, draw 12%, Mladost Lučani 6%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 39% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Red Star Belgrade vs Mladost Lučani?

The model expects 2.77 goals (xG) for Red Star Belgrade and 0.53 for Mladost Lučani, 3.30 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Red Star Belgrade or draw (1X) 94%, Mladost Lučani or draw (X2) 17% and no draw (12) 88%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.