01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Radnik Surdulica or draw (1X)68%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Serbian Super League
Läs på svenska
Radnik SurdulicaPossession & high press3–0
Radnički NišPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Radnik Surdulica (42%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.09 (+7 %)
Radnik Surdulica vs Radnički Niš · Serbian Super League
1 · Radnik Surdulica 42%X 29%30% Radnički Niš · 2
42%
29%
30%
Prediction summary
Final score 3–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Radnik Surdulica vs Radnički Niš (Serbian Super League, Friday, 16 October 2026): Radnik Surdulica win 42%, draw 29%, Radnički Niš win 30%. Expected goals (xG): Radnik Surdulica 1.48, Radnički Niš 1.25. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Radnik Surdulica or draw 70%, Radnički Niš or draw 58%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Radnik Surdulica – Radnički Niš
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Radnik Surdulica's high-press approach is set to clash with Radnički Niš's possession control in what could be a tightly contested affair. Despite sitting higher on the table with 14 points compared to Niš's 8, Surdulica has yet to claim a victory in their recent head-to-head encounters, drawing once and losing once. However, this small sample size suggests we focus more on current form and expected goals for insights.
The hosts have a slight model-based edge at 42% to win, supported by superior xPoints (15.4 vs. 12.3). They also lead in expected goals for this matchup, with Surdulica projected at 1.48 compared to the visitors' 1.25. This suggests potential vulnerability in Radnički's defense that Surdulica could exploit.
Despite these edges, the expected goals against per match tell a different tale. Radnički Niš has a marginally better defensive record with an xGA of 1.4, whereas Surdulica's is slightly higher at 1.5. This balance between attack and defense signifies a match that could swing either way, although a 1-1 draw currently stands as the most probable scoreline at 12%.
From a betting perspective, the over 2.5 goals market offers value at odds of 2.05 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet. With the model rating this outcome at 51%, there's a notable 5% edge. For those looking for higher returns, the over 3.5 goals bet provides a 4% edge at odds of 3.55 with Betsafe, though the model rates this as less likely at 29%.
Ultimately, while the tactical battle should keep this match intriguing, the goal-scoring potential leans towards a narrow home win or a possible 1-1 result. Keep an eye on the over 2.5 goals market—it holds the sharpest value in this encounter.
Radnik SurdulicaForm WDDDL
League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #8xP/match #9Points #6
Key players
- Darko StojanovićCAMxG 0.13 · xT 0.08
- Vukašin BogdanovićFxG 0.57 · xT -0.01
- Aleksandar PejovićCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.34
Radnički NišForm DLWLL
League ranking xG #9xGA #9xT #7xP/match #11Points #13
Key players
- Marko MijailovićRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.24
- Issah AbassLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.23
- Igor IvanovićRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.21
Final score
3 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Radnik Surdulica 42% · Draw 29% · Radnički Niš 30%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - FK Radnicki NisBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 11,80fair 12,24-4 %
MissMatchresultat - FK Radnik SurdulicaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,11fair 8,76-7 %
MissMatch prediction: Radnik Surdulica – Radnički Niš
Predicted score matrix
Radnički Niš →
Radnik Surdulica →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.9%
0–17.8%
0–25.1%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–09.3%
1–112.4%
1–27.5%
1–33.1%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–07.1%
2–18.9%
2–25.6%
2–32.3%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–03.5%
3–14.4%
3–22.8%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.8%
4+–12.3%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,48–1,25
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@1.75
Over 2,551%
@2.09EV+5%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Radnik Surdulica or draw (1X)68%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Vukašin Bogdanović to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Vukašin Bogdanović to score30%
- Elimane Franck Kanouté to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 2.551% probability@2.09PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
- Over 4.514% probability@7.50Paddy PowerEV+6%reference odds
- Over 2.551% probability@2.05Bet365EV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Radnik Surdulica | X | 2 · Radnički Niš |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Betfair Exchange | 1.23 | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Betsafe | 2.15 | 3.15 | 3.10 |
| LeoVegas | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.05 |
| Nordicbet | 2.15 | 3.15 | 3.10 |
| Paddy Power | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | 3.30 | 3.07 |
Odds updated 16 Oct, 11:36
Odds movement
1+4 %
46 %41 %
2.06 → 2.14
X0 %
30 %25 %
3.31 → 3.30
2+1 %
32 %27 %
3.05 → 3.07
Over 2,5+6 %
49 %44 %
1.98 → 2.09
Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 15/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesRadnik Surdulica 0Draw 1Radnički Niš 1
Goals: 4–6 (⌀ 5)
Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Radnik Surdulica
Radnički Niš
Radnik Surdulica (14–16)
Radnički Niš (7–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Radnik Surdulica
Radnički Niš
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Radnik Surdulica
Radnički Niš
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Radnik Surdulica | Radnički Niš |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 8 |
| xPoints | 15.4 | 12.3 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.32 | 0.16 |
| Playing style | Radnik Surdulica | Radnički Niš |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 0.88 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 289 | 296 |
| Passes against per match | 325 | 306 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.3 | 21.6 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 35 |
| Set pieces | Radnik Surdulica | Radnički Niš |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 4.7 |
| Corners against per match | 4.6 | 3.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.46 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.49 | 0.45 |
| Other | Radnik Surdulica | Radnički Niš |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Stefan Ranđelović (Radnik Surdulica) | Ivan Kostić (Radnički Niš) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 31 | 30 |
| Save % | 76% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 45% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Radnik Surdulica vs Radnički Niš according to our model?
The model gives Radnik Surdulica a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Radnik Surdulica 42%, draw 29%, Radnički Niš 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Radnik Surdulica vs Radnički Niš?
The model expects 1.48 goals (xG) for Radnik Surdulica and 1.25 for Radnički Niš, 2.73 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Radnik Surdulica or draw (1X) 70%, Radnički Niš or draw (X2) 58% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.