01 · 2 legs
Safe
- IFK Norrköping to win77%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Swedish SuperettanÖstgötaporten, Norrköping8°21 km/h
Läs på svenska
IFK NorrköpingPossession & high press4–0
GIF SundsvallLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · IFK Norrköping (77%)Best value by the model: 2 · GIF Sundsvall @ 14.17 (+31 %)
IFK Norrköping vs GIF Sundsvall · Swedish Superettan
1 · IFK Norrköping 77%X 14%9% GIF Sundsvall · 2
77%
14%
Prediction summary
Final score 4–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for IFK Norrköping vs GIF Sundsvall (Swedish Superettan, Tuesday, 13 October 2026): IFK Norrköping win 77%, draw 14%, GIF Sundsvall win 9%. Expected goals (xG): IFK Norrköping 2.51, GIF Sundsvall 0.64. Most likely score: 2-0 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 44%. Double chance: IFK Norrköping or draw 91%, GIF Sundsvall or draw 23%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 6 October 2026.
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Analysis: IFK Norrköping – GIF Sundsvall
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
IFK Norrköping's 11-match unbeaten streak highlights their current dominance in the league, reinforced by their possession-based, high-press playing style. They face GIF Sundsvall, a team entrenched in defensive tactics with a mere 19 points to their name. The hosts, with 55 points, clearly demonstrate their superiority both in standing and in style.
Norrköping's expected goals per match stand at 1.8, nearly double that of Sundsvall's 0.94. Such disparity is evident in the expected goals tally for the upcoming clash: 2.51 for the hosts against 0.64 for the visitors. A model that produces probabilities of 77% for a Norrköping win and a mere 9% for Sundsvall suggests a straightforward outcome. Despite just a single encounter between these sides since 2024, where Norrköping emerged victorious, current form and statistical projections carry more weight.
The likelihood of a low-scoring affair seems counterintuitive. The model leans towards a 2-0 result (13%), with 3-0 and 1-0 both rated at 11%. However, the probability of over 2.5 goals sits at 61%, contrasting with the 44% chance of both teams scoring. This presents an intriguing opportunity given the playing styles: Norrköping's high press can suffocate Sundsvall's direct approach, potentially limiting their chances.
Here's where the betting angle sharpens. The value lies in betting under 2.5 goals, with odds at 2.82 from Betsafe and Nordicbet, or 2.8 from LeoVegas. The model assigns a 39% likelihood to this outcome, offering a 9-10% edge. It's a calculated risk against the grain of public expectation but backed by the numbers. Expect Norrköping to control the game, yet the under 2.5 market carries a promising edge for those willing to trust the stats.
IFK NorrköpingForm WDWDW
League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Christoffer NymanFxG 0.61 · xT 0.01
- Anton ErikssonCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
- Ture SandbergRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.14
GIF SundsvallForm WWLLW
League ranking xG #16xGA #14xT #16xP/match #12Points #16
Key players
- Alper DemirolCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.23
- Marc Manchon I ArmansCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.19
- Eron GojaniLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.25
Final score
4 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: IFK Norrköping 77% · Draw 14% · GIF Sundsvall 9%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - IFK NorrköpingBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,48fair 4,76-27 %
MissMatchresultat - GIF SundsvallBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 51,38fair 73,86-30 %
MissMatch prediction: IFK Norrköping – GIF Sundsvall
Predicted score matrix
GIF Sundsvall →
IFK Norrköping →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.5%
0–12.5%
0–20.9%
0–30.2%
0–4+0.0%
1
1–010.5%
1–17.1%
1–22.2%
1–30.5%
1–4+0.1%
2
2–013.5%
2–18.6%
2–22.8%
2–30.6%
2–4+0.1%
3
3–011.3%
3–17.2%
3–22.3%
3–30.5%
3–4+0.1%
4+
4+–012.9%
4+–18.3%
4+–22.6%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-013%
- 2.3-011%
- 3.1-011%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,51–0,64
Both teams to score
44%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+21%
Under 2,539%
@2.82EV+10%
Over 2,561%
@1.40
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- IFK Norrköping to win77%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Christoffer Nyman to score39%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score44%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Christoffer Nyman to score39%
- Alper Demirol to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · GIF Sundsvall9% probability@14.17BetsafeEV+31%reference odds
- 2 · GIF Sundsvall9% probability@14.17NordicbetEV+31%reference odds
- 2 · GIF Sundsvall9% probability@13.00LeoVegasEV+20%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · IFK Norrköping | X | 2 · GIF Sundsvall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.17 | EV+ 2% 7.18 | EV+ 31% 14.17 |
| LeoVegas | 1.16 | 6.90 | EV+ 20% 13.00 |
| Nordicbet | 1.17 | EV+ 2% 7.18 | EV+ 31% 14.17 |
| Pinnacle | 1.18 | EV+ 8% 7.62 | EV+ 15% 12.46 |
Odds updated 13 Oct, 20:22
Odds movement
10 %
82 %77 %
1.18 → 1.18
X+5 %
15 %10 %
7.28 → 7.62
2+17 %
11 %6 %
10.63 → 12.46
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 12/10/2026 → 13/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesIFK Norrköping 1Draw 0GIF Sundsvall 0
Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.
Key facts
- IFK Norrköping FK are unbeaten in their last 11 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
IFK Norrköping
GIF Sundsvall
IFK Norrköping (48–16)
GIF Sundsvall (19–53)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
IFK Norrköping
GIF Sundsvall
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
IFK Norrköping
GIF Sundsvall
The teams in numbers
| Performance | IFK Norrköping | GIF Sundsvall |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55 | 19 |
| xPoints | 41.7 | 32.5 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 0.94 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | IFK Norrköping | GIF Sundsvall |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.62 | 0.37 |
| xT per match | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 38 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.56 | 0.5 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 441 | 307 |
| Passes against per match | 325 | 476 |
| Switches of play per match | 15.6 | 16.5 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 30 |
| Set pieces | IFK Norrköping | GIF Sundsvall |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.21 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 5.5 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.5 | 5.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| Other | IFK Norrköping | GIF Sundsvall |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| The goalkeepers | Theo Krantz (IFK Norrköping) | Jonas Olsson (GIF Sundsvall) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 77 | 89 |
| Save % | 85% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 69% | 43% |
| Claims | 138 (89%) | 148 (93%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: IFK Norrköping spelschemaGIF Sundsvall spelschema
Frequently asked questions
Who wins IFK Norrköping vs GIF Sundsvall according to our model?
The model gives IFK Norrköping a 77% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IFK Norrköping 77%, draw 14%, GIF Sundsvall 9%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in IFK Norrköping vs GIF Sundsvall?
The model expects 2.51 goals (xG) for IFK Norrköping and 0.64 for GIF Sundsvall, 3.15 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
IFK Norrköping or draw (1X) 91%, GIF Sundsvall or draw (X2) 23% and no draw (12) 86%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.