Monza vs Cagliari: Prediction & Odds (19 Oct 2026)

Serie A19 October 2026U-Power Stadium, Monza18°9 km/h

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MonzaLow block & direct

4–0

CagliariLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Monza (42%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.81 (+2 %)

1 · Monza 42%X 27%31% Cagliari · 2

42%

27%

31%

Prediction summary

Final score 4–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Monza vs Cagliari (Serie A, Monday, 19 October 2026): Monza win 42%, draw 27%, Cagliari win 31%. Expected goals (xG): Monza 1.40, Cagliari 1.02. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Monza or draw 69%, Cagliari or draw 58%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.

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Analysis: Monza – Cagliari

Anna Karlsson · 17 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Monza enters the clash with Cagliari as slight favorites, as indicated by the model's 42% winning probability. Despite their lower points tally this season, the hosts hold a crucial edge in expected metrics, boasting 1.7 expected goals per match compared to the visitors' 0.84. This discrepancy highlights Monza's capacity to create goal-scoring opportunities, even if results haven't always reflected this potential. Their xPoints of 9.9 further underscore a potential underperformance, suggesting they might be due for a positive correction.

The small head-to-head sample, consisting of just two matches, shows Cagliari's dominance with two wins. However, given the limited data, it holds less predictive weight compared to current form and expected goals. Monza's superior expected goals against (xGA) of 1.4 compared to Cagliari's 1.7 suggests a defensive advantage for the hosts, potentially stifling the visitors' attacking efforts. With both teams employing a similar low-defense, direct style, the onus will be on who can better capitalize on direct play and transition opportunities.

Weather conditions, with 4.3 mm of rain, suggest a damp field that could stifle attacking fluidity, likely contributing to the model's modest 43% probability for over 2.5 goals. The most probable scorelines—1-1 (13%) and 1-0 (12%)—reflect a tight, low-scoring affair. The model leans towards Monza overall, with 1-1 as the single most likely scoreline, aligning with their expected goals advantage and home ground comfort.

From a betting perspective, there's value in backing the home side. Odds of 2.45 at LeoVegas provide a notable 4% edge over the model's 42% win probability estimation for Monza. Alternatively, both Betsafe and Nordicbet offer 2.4 odds, providing a slightly smaller yet favorable 2% edge. Monza's latent potential and home value present a compelling case this time around.

Monza

Form LDLWL

League ranking xG #5xGA #10xT #12xP/match #6Points #16

Key players

Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa VarelaFxG 0.50 · xT 0.03
Samuele BirindelliRWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.18
Eddy KouadioCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08

Cagliari

Form LWWWD

League ranking xG #19xGA #14xT #18xP/match #14Points #5

Key players

Adam ObertLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
Alessandro RomanoCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.02
Paul MendyFxG 0.20 · xT 0.04

Final score

4 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Monza 42% · Draw 27% · Cagliari 31%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - MonzaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,44fair 10,48-19 %

Miss

Matchresultat - CagliariBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 11,08fair 19,34-43 %

Miss

Match prediction: Monza – Cagliari

Predicted score matrix

Cagliari →

Monza →

0–09.3%

0–18.7%

0–24.6%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.5%

1–012.1%

1–113.1%

1–26.5%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.7%

2–08.7%

2–18.9%

2–24.5%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.5%

3–04.0%

3–14.1%

3–22.1%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.9%

4+–12.0%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.0-09%
4.2-19%
5.0-19%

Expected goals

1,40–1,02

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@1.81EV+2%

Over 2,543%

@2.10

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Monza or draw (1X)73%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Monza or draw (1X)73%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Samuele Birindelli to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Paul Mendy to score23%
Dany Mota Carvalho to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.557% probability@1.81BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
Under 2.557% probability@1.81NordicbetEV+2%reference odds
Under 2.557% probability@1.80LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Monza	X	2 · Cagliari
Betsafe	2.32	3.20	3.15
LeoVegas	2.35	3.25	3.20
Nordicbet	2.35	3.25	3.20
Pinnacle	EV+ 1% 2.39	3.28	3.25

Odds updated 19 Oct, 13:35

Odds movement

1+7 %

43 %38 %

2.24 → 2.39

X+3 %

33 %28 %

3.17 → 3.28

2-5 %

32 %27 %

3.42 → 3.25

Over 2,5+2 %

48 %43 %

2.05 → 2.10

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Monza 0Draw 0Cagliari 2

Goals: 1–5 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Monza

Cagliari

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Monza (9–15)

Cagliari (6–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Monza

Cagliari

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Monza

Cagliari

The teams in numbers

Performance	Monza	Cagliari
Points	4	13
xPoints	9.9	7.5
xG per match	1.7	0.84
xGA per match	1.4	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.12	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.21

Playing style	Monza	Cagliari
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.27
Field tilt	0.46	0.23
xT per match	1.1	0.64
xTA per match	1.2	1.7
Won balls, offensive half	25	17
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.21
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.15
Entries into the box per match	13	7
Entries into the box against	15	23
Pass completion %	0.75	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.76
Passes per match	315	333
Passes against per match	427	575
Switches of play per match	25.3	16.1
Long balls per match	33	26

Set pieces	Monza	Cagliari
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.02
Corners per match	4.7	3.5
Corners against per match	4.7	7
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.29
First touch, defensive corners %	0.39	0.57

Other	Monza	Cagliari
Throw-in control	0.78	0.6

The goalkeepers	Noel Max Joachim Törnqvist (Monza)	Elia Caprile (Cagliari)
Saves	11	28
Save %	73%	90%
xG prevented	64%	87%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Monza

Fixtures, form & tips

Cagliari

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Monza spelschema Cagliari spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Monza vs Cagliari according to our model?

The model gives Monza a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Monza 42%, draw 27%, Cagliari 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Monza vs Cagliari?

The model expects 1.40 goals (xG) for Monza and 1.02 for Cagliari, 2.42 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Monza or draw (1X) 69%, Cagliari or draw (X2) 58% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.