Parma vs Torino: Prediction & Odds (19 Oct 2026)

Serie A19 October 2026Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma17°6 km/h

Läs på svenska

ParmaCounter-attacks & crosses

0–3

TorinoLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Torino (37%)Best value by the model: 1 · Parma @ 3.26 (+5 %)

1 · Parma 32%X 31%37% Torino · 2

32%

31%

37%

Prediction summary

Final score 0–3. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Parma vs Torino (Serie A, Monday, 19 October 2026): Parma win 32%, draw 31%, Torino win 37%. Expected goals (xG): Parma 1.13, Torino 1.15. Most likely score: 1-1 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%. Double chance: Parma or draw 63%, Torino or draw 68%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Parma – Torino

Oscar Nilsson · 17 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Torino holds a slight edge in this matchup, with a 37% probability of winning according to model predictions. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 14%, but a narrow victory for the visitors at 0-1 isn't far behind at 11%. Despite this, both teams show a tendency towards lower expected goals, with Parma at 1.13 and Torino at 1.15, suggesting a tight game. The model leans towards under 2.5 goals, which fits both teams' playing styles: Parma's counter-attacking and crossing versus Torino's low defense and direct approach.

The head-to-head record since 2021 is balanced, with each team securing a win and sharing the spoils twice, but this small sample weighs less heavily than current form and expected goals. Torino has picked up more points in recent games and edges out Parma slightly in expected metrics, albeit not by a large margin. Parma's xGA is a concern, standing at 1.9 per match, which could be an opening for the visitors.

For value seekers, Parma is priced at odds of 3.4 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, offering an attractive 9% edge over the market's assessment. While Torino seems the more probable victor, those odds make a compelling case for a home upset in a low-scoring contest.

Parma

Form LDLWL

League ranking xG #20xGA #18xT #19xP/match #20Points #18

Key players

José David RomeroFxG 0.29 · xT 0.00
Adrian BernabeRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
Christian OrdonezCDMxG 0.09 · xT 0.07

Torino

Form LWLDW

League ranking xG #17xGA #13xT #17xP/match #17Points #12

Key players

Rolando MandragoraCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.09
Saúl CocoCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.06
Eray Ervin CömertCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.12

Final score

0 – 3

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Parma 32% · Draw 31% · Torino 37%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - ParmaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 13,32fair 16,05-17 %

Miss

Matchresultat - TorinoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,36fair 15,52-33 %

Miss

Match prediction: Parma – Torino

Predicted score matrix

Torino →

Parma →

0–010.7%

0–111.4%

0–26.8%

0–32.6%

0–4+0.9%

1–011.2%

1–113.7%

1–27.6%

1–32.9%

1–4+1.1%

2–06.5%

2–17.5%

2–24.3%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.6%

3–02.5%

3–12.8%

3–21.6%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-111%
3.1-011%
4.0-011%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,13–1,15

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

011%

123%

227%

320%

411%

5+8%

Under 2,560%

@1.63

Over 2,540%

@2.38

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Torino or draw (X2)65%
Under 3.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Torino or draw (X2)65%
Under 2.5 goals60%
Alessio Cacciamani to score16%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Emanuele Valeri to score19%
Lamine Mandela Keita to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Parma32% probability@3.26PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
1 · Parma32% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
1 · Parma32% probability@3.15NordicbetEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Parma	X	2 · Torino
Betsafe	EV+ 1% 3.15	3.05	2.42
LeoVegas	3.10	3.10	2.45
Nordicbet	EV+ 1% 3.15	3.05	2.42
Pinnacle	EV+ 5% 3.26	3.10	2.49

Odds updated 19 Oct, 12:35

Odds movement

1+3 %

32 %27 %

3.17 → 3.26

X+3 %

34 %29 %

3.00 → 3.10

2+1 %

42 %37 %

2.47 → 2.49

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Parma 1Draw 2Torino 1

Goals: 5–7 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Parma

Torino

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Parma (4–10)

Torino (7–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Parma

Torino

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Parma

Torino

The teams in numbers

Performance	Parma	Torino
Points	4	7
xPoints	5.3	5.8
xG per match	0.64	0.93
xGA per match	1.9	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.47

Playing style	Parma	Torino
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.22	0.34
xT per match	0.63	0.77
xTA per match	1.2	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	20	24
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.21	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.27
Entries into the box per match	9	8
Entries into the box against	15	14
Pass completion %	0.75	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.73
Passes per match	318	407
Passes against per match	479	398
Switches of play per match	27.9	14.4
Long balls per match	29	22

Set pieces	Parma	Torino
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.04
Corners per match	3	3.5
Corners against per match	5.7	3.9
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.29
First touch, defensive corners %	0.32	0.43

Other	Parma	Torino
Throw-in control	0.66	0.69

The goalkeepers	Edoardo Corvi (Parma)	Diego Mascardi (Torino)
Saves	25	7
Save %	71%	64%
xG prevented	58%	65%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Parma

Fixtures, form & tips

Torino

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Parma spelschema Torino spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Parma vs Torino according to our model?

The model gives Torino a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Parma 32%, draw 31%, Torino 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Parma vs Torino?

The model expects 1.13 goals (xG) for Parma and 1.15 for Torino, 2.27 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Parma or draw (1X) 63%, Torino or draw (X2) 68% and no draw (12) 69%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.