01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance LASK or draw (1X)66%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Austrian Bundesliga7°10,6 mm10 km/h
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LASKPossession & high press1–3
Red Bull SalzburgPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · LASK (43%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 5.90 (+29 %)
LASK vs Red Bull Salzburg · Austrian Bundesliga
1 · LASK 43%X 27%31% Red Bull Salzburg · 2
43%
27%
31%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–3. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for LASK vs Red Bull Salzburg (Austrian Bundesliga, Sunday, 25 October 2026): LASK win 43%, draw 27%, Red Bull Salzburg win 31%. Expected goals (xG): LASK 1.49, Red Bull Salzburg 1.37. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: LASK or draw 69%, Red Bull Salzburg or draw 57%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: LASK – Red Bull Salzburg
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
A tight contest looms as LASK and Red Bull Salzburg clash, with the hosts given a 43% chance to secure victory. LASK's home prowess is evident, winning 58% of their matches on familiar turf all-time (38 played). Meanwhile, Salzburg's unbeaten run over nine league fixtures underscores their resilience. The head-to-head record since 2022 is split evenly at three wins apiece, suggesting a finely balanced encounter.
Both sides favor a possession-based approach with high pressing, yet the expected goals figures are telling: LASK edges it slightly with 1.49 to Salzburg's 1.37. Despite a history of high-scoring meetings, the model's most likely outcomes are on the conservative side, with a 1-1 draw (12%) and narrow wins for the hosts (2-1 at 9%, 1-0 at 8%). The chance of both teams finding the net stands at 58%.
For bettors, the sharpest angle lies in the unders market. While the match leans towards LASK, the standout value emerges with Betsafe and Nordicbet offering under 1.5 goals at odds of 5.9, representing a significant edge of 29%. Additionally, under 2.5 goals at 2.72 with Betsafe provides a 24% edge, emphasizing the potential for a low-scoring affair despite historical trends.
LASKForm WLDLW
League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #3
Key players
- Moses UsorFxG 0.64 · xT 0.12
- Sascha HorvathLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.25
- Christoph LangLWxG 0.47 · xT 0.15
Red Bull SalzburgForm WDWDW
League ranking xG #1xGA #3xT #3xP/match #3Points #2
Key players
- Frans KrätzigLBxG 0.29 · xT 0.22
- Tim DrexlerCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.06
- Abubakr BarryCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
Final score
1 – 3
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: LASK 43% · Draw 27% · Red Bull Salzburg 31%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Red Bull SalzburgBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,30fair 10,07-37 %
HitMatchresultat - LASKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,69fair 8,51-45 %
MissMatch prediction: LASK – Red Bull Salzburg
Predicted score matrix
Red Bull Salzburg →
LASK →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.1%
0–17.5%
0–25.4%
0–32.5%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–08.2%
1–112.0%
1–28.0%
1–33.7%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–06.4%
2–18.7%
2–26.0%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–03.2%
3–14.3%
3–23.0%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.6%
4+–12.2%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-18%
Expected goals
1,49–1,37
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.72EV+24%
Over 2,554%
@1.44
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance LASK or draw (1X)66%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Christoph Lang to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Christoph Lang to score28%
- Melayro Chakewno Jalaino Bogarde to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.522% probability@5.90BetsafeEV+29%reference odds
- Under 1.522% probability@5.90NordicbetEV+29%reference odds
- Under 2.546% probability@2.72BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · LASK | X | 2 · Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| Betsafe | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| LeoVegas | 2.15 | EV+ 4% 3.90 | 2.80 |
| Nordicbet | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| Pinnacle | 2.21 | EV+ 8% 4.03 | 2.96 |
Odds updated 25 Oct, 11:19
Odds movement
1+1 %
46 %41 %
2.19 → 2.21
X+3 %
27 %22 %
3.90 → 4.03
2+1 %
35 %30 %
2.93 → 2.96
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesLASK 3Draw 0Red Bull Salzburg 3
Goals: 8–13 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.5 goals per meeting on average.
- Red Bull Salzburg are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches.
- LASK win 58% of their home matches all-time (38 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
LASK
Red Bull Salzburg
LASK (23–9)
Red Bull Salzburg (21–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
LASK
Red Bull Salzburg
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
LASK
Red Bull Salzburg
The teams in numbers
| Performance | LASK | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 19 | 21 |
| xPoints | 17.3 | 16.8 |
| xG per match | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| xGA per match | 0.85 | 1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.16 | 0.35 |
| Playing style | LASK | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.75 | 0.66 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 20 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 6 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 425 | 538 |
| Passes against per match | 297 | 269 |
| Switches of play per match | 43 | 30.9 |
| Long balls per match | 49 | 33 |
| Set pieces | LASK | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| Corners per match | 8.3 | 7.3 |
| Corners against per match | 1.7 | 4 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.35 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.8 | 0.44 |
| Other | LASK | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.79 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Lukas Jungwirth (LASK) | Christian Zawieschitzky (Red Bull Salzburg) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 16 | 18 |
| Save % | 64% | 82% |
| xG prevented | 50% | 90% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins LASK vs Red Bull Salzburg according to our model?
The model gives LASK a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: LASK 43%, draw 27%, Red Bull Salzburg 31%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in LASK vs Red Bull Salzburg?
The model expects 1.49 goals (xG) for LASK and 1.37 for Red Bull Salzburg, 2.86 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
LASK or draw (1X) 69%, Red Bull Salzburg or draw (X2) 57% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.